Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24
RECESSION When Yield Curve Uninverts - 8th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is Set Up To Shine - 8th Sep 24
Precious Metals Shine in August: Gold and Silver Surge Ahead - 8th Sep 24
Gold’s Demand Comeback - 8th Sep 24
Gold’s Quick Reversal and Copper’s Major Indications - 8th Sep 24
GLOBAL WARMING Housing Market Consequences Right Now - 6th Sep 24
Crude Oil’s Sign for Gold Investors - 6th Sep 24
Stocks Face Uncertainty Following Sell-Off- 6th Sep 24
GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM MINING SHARES - 6th Sep 24
AI Stocks Portfolio and Bitcoin September 2024 - 3rd Sep 24
2024 = 1984 - AI Equals Loss of Agency - 30th Aug 24
UBI - Universal Billionaire Income - 30th Aug 24
US COUNTING DOWN TO CRISIS, CATASTROPHE AND COLLAPSE - 30th Aug 24
GBP/USD Uptrend: What’s Next for the Pair? - 30th Aug 24
The Post-2020 History of the 10-2 US Treasury Yield Curve - 30th Aug 24
Stocks Likely to Extend Consolidation: Topping Pattern Forming? - 30th Aug 24
Why Stock-Market Success Is Usually Only Temporary - 30th Aug 24
The Consequences of AI - 24th Aug 24
Can Greedy Politicians Really Stop Price Inflation With a "Price Gouging" Ban? - 24th Aug 24
Why Alien Intelligence Cannot Predict the Future - 23rd Aug 24
Stock Market Surefire Way to Go Broke - 23rd Aug 24
RIP Google Search - 23rd Aug 24
What happened to the Fed’s Gold? - 23rd Aug 24
US Dollar Reserves Have Dropped By 14 Percent Since 2002 - 23rd Aug 24
Will Electric Vehicles Be the Killer App for Silver? - 23rd Aug 24
EUR/USD Update: Strong Uptrend and Key Levels to Watch - 23rd Aug 24
Gold Mid-Tier Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 23rd Aug 24
My GCSE Exam Results Day Shock! 2024 - 23rd Aug 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Some Day.....

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Aug 02, 2015 - 05:08 PM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

We are all trying to wrap our heads around this base. Arguments can be made on both sides. The bulls will tell us that sentiment is unwinding nicely as we hold the range, while the bears will say the longer this goes on without breaking out tells us the bulls have run out of steam. Actually, both are right to some degree but the truth is that we really don't understand fully why the market won't make a definitive move one way or the other. S&P 500 2134 and 2040 are rock solid in terms of resistance and support. There are other factors. Ms. Yellen is clearly dovish and wants this market higher. She's playing up how rates won't be aggressively raised, if at all this year. When she spoke Wednesday at their last meeting she said they are still data dependent, and they made no firm statement about raising rates in September, which is when everyone believes she will do the dirty deed. She seemed to almost go out of her way to let us all know that she may not raise it at that time.


The market loved this, of course. This is intentional behavior on her part to support those 401K's that folks rely upon when making decisions about spending. The bears will further argue their case by saying those monthly charts just can't go any further on their bloated oscillators. That if you look at that type of set up historically, it has never ended well for the bulls and they'd be right to make such a statement. Those index monthly charts are quite bearish in nature but then the bulls will say it seemed that way when looking at the weekly charts but they have unwound without any price erosion worth talking about.

The arguing goes back and forth but truthfully the onus is on the bears to remove the overall bigger-picture up trend in place. Only a strong move below 2040 will get that done for them, and, thus far, they've shown glimpses, but nothing else worth mentioning. So here we are with the market stuck. Both sides having their moments but neither side able to claim victory. No way to know how much longer this painful base goes on but we must respect the message. Lateral is that message in the nearly five percent base. A day at a time.

It's important to go over this again. Three very poor behaving sectors that prevented the S&P 500 from breaking out were the industrials, transports and Semiconductors. All three appear to have made bear-market bottoms, and make no mistake about it, they were nasty bears there for a while. If heavily weighted sectors such as these start to put in important longer-term bottoms one would think the market should break out, but we can't be sure the bottoms are truly in until we get some inside day selling on light volume, or any form of a lateral move on light volume that holds the gap ups. The bears need to get busy bringing these sector stocks back lower and fast. Each day they're looking better and better. While they improve the financial stocks are unwinding slowly without much price erosion. If they bottom soon without falling much from here that would only add to the bullish scenario. Interesting times when focusing on these key groups. More favorable than not for now.

Look folks, I know there are no guarantees with anything in this game. I would love to get very aggressive but the environment is dangerous with tremendous whipsaw. What look's good one day isn't the next, and that can be flipped around to the other side. No consistent action except for inconsistent action. I know you all want more and more but this is just not the best for something like that. If things set up I'll try more plays here and there. I would love to have ten plays out there but if we get the wrong reversal you'll all get hurt and I don't want that. S&P 500 2040 seems tough to break but trust me, it can happen in the blink of an eye if something hits out of the blue or it can take just those bloated monthly index charts to do the trick.

Things are more hopeful for the bulls but hope doesn't make a market. The advantage is with the bulls no doubt but I do not think anything is even close to a guarantee. As things set up i will adjust. You should as well. You should also recognize this part of the bull market is far tougher than what we've had to deal with years prior. Be smart and choose stocks with the best earnings reports. I'd avoid, but do what you want of course, chasing the bear market sectors hoping for the big bounce. The market is extremely difficult here. Taking nothing for granted. A day at a time.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!

© 2015 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in