Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24
How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - 17th Feb 24
Why Rising Shipping Costs Won't Cause Inflation - 17th Feb 24
Intensive 6 Week Stock Market Elliott Wave Training Course - 17th Feb 24
INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend - 17th Feb 24
GameStop (GME): 88% Shellacking Yet No Lesson Learned - 17th Feb 24
Nick Millican Explains Real Estate Investment in a Changing World - 17th Feb 24
US Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 7th Feb 24
Stocks Bull Market Commands It All For Now - 7th Feb 24
Financial Markets Narrative Nonsense - 7th Feb 24
Gold Price Long-Term Outlook Could Not Look Better - 7th Feb 24
Stock Market QE4EVER - 7th Feb 24
Learn How to Accumulate and Distribute (Trim) Stock Positions to Maximise Profits - Investing 101 - 5th Feb 24
US Exponential Budget Deficit - 5th Feb 24
Gold Tipping Points That Investors Shouldn’t Miss - 5th Feb 24
Banking Crisis Quietly Brewing - 5th Feb 24
Stock Market Major Market lows by Calendar Month - 4th Feb 24
Gold Price’s Rally is Normal, but Is It Really Bullish? - 4th Feb 24
More Problems in US Regional Banking System: Where There's Fire There's Smoke - 4th Feb 24
New Hints of US Election Year Market Interventions & Turmoil - 4th Feb 24
Watch Consumer Spending to Know When the Fed Will Cut Interest Rates - 4th Feb 24
STOCK MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENTS BIG PICTURE - 31st Jan 24
Blue Skies Ahead As Stock Market Is Expected To Continue Much Higher - 31st Jan 24
What the Stock Market "Fear Index" VIX May Be Signaling - 31st Jan 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast Review - 31st Jan 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Investment Silver Demand Draining COMEX Vaults

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015 Aug 04, 2015 - 09:43 AM GMT

By: MoneyMetals

Commodities

If there are words to characterize the precious metals markets for July, it would be “divergences” and “shortages.” There was heavy selling in the leveraged futures market and extraordinary buying demand and shortages in physical coins, rounds, and bars.

Despite turmoil surrounding Greece and a huge sell-off in Chinese equities, traders dumped wheelbarrow loads of paper gold and silver. The expected safe-haven buying was concentrated entirely in physical bullion. Spot prices fell relentlessly during the month.


This divergence has been reported recently. But some surprising new data has come to light...

In silver futures, the number of contracts where holders opted to take delivery of the bars rather than “roll” their contracts over, or close the position and take cash, jumped unexpectedly and dramatically in July.

TF Metals Report watches deliveries carefully, and its researchers pointed out some unprecedented occurrences in July. In a typical month, 80 to 85% of contracts still open at expiration wind up in physical delivery of the bars. In July, this number was 135%.

One or more major players “jumped the queue” and took delivery of about 6.5 million more ounces of silver out of COMEX warehouses than anticipated at the beginning of the month.

This drawdown activity was masked completely by what happened to prices. Precious metals bulls are frustrated by the complete detachment between spot prices and physical demand. They’re wondering how that is even possible.

The answer is that as long as only a tiny and manageable number of participants in futures markets for gold and silver actually demand delivery, spot prices can move independently of the fundamentals.

The July data on physical deliveries may be foretelling a change. The pitifully thin inventory of bars held in exchange vaults that back the enormous volumes of paper futures being traded daily may start to matter… and matter a great deal.

If the numbers of contracts where investors stand for delivery get unmanageable, we’ll see the massive leverage built into gold and silver futures start to work in favor of precious metals spot prices rather than against them.

The July data should send a shiver down the spine of anyone with a naked short position on silver, i.e. anyone who doesn’t have physical silver to deliver if a counter-party demands it. Short sellers are counting on being able to settle in cash – or grab silver bars from exchange vaults if necessary.

Mints Scouring America for Raw Silver

The big spike in investment coins, rounds, and bars is almost certainly behind the unusual delivery activity at COMEX warehouses.

Sources indicate mint and refinery demand is largely responsible for this “jumping [of] the queue” and off take of 1,000-ounce bars. The silver is needed for manufacturing into smaller retail products currently in very short supply.

Some major precious metals depots around the country, such as those in Los Angeles, completely ran out of all forms of pure silver last week, and mint owners are scouring the country to lock up the silver they need to keep production running.

The scenario is deeply frustrating for mints that should be having a heyday in this period of high demand.

However, if mints can’t readily get their hands on the raw silver needed for production to run at full tilt, orders could get backed up for weeks or even months.

The retail and wholesale market for silver is tight as a drum and shows no signs of loosening. Another spike in demand may clean it out completely.

By Clint Siegner

MoneyMetals.com

Clint Siegner is a Director at Money Metals Exchange, perhaps the nation's fastest-growing dealer of low-premium precious metals coins, rounds, and bars. Siegner, a graduate of Linfield College in Oregon, puts his experience in business management along with his passion for personal liberty, limited government, and honest money into the development of Money Metals' brand and reach. This includes writing extensively on the bullion markets and their intersection with policy and world affairs.

© 2015 Clint Siegner - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in