Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Stock Market Election Year Cycles – What to Expect? - 4th Jun 20
Why Solar Stocks Are Rallying Against All Odds - 4th Jun 20
East Asia Will Be a Post-Pandemic Success - 4th Jun 20
Comparing Bitcoin to Other Market Sectors – Risk vs. Value - 4th Jun 20
Covid, Debt and Precious Metals - 3rd Jun 20
Gold-Silver Ratio And Correlation - 3rd Jun 20
The Corona Riots Begin, US Covid-19 Catastrophe Trend Analysis - 3rd Jun 20 -
Stock Market Short-term Top? - 3rd Jun 20
Deflation: Why the "Japanification" of the U.S. Looms Large - 3rd Jun 20
US Stock Market Sets Up Technical Patterns – Pay Attention - 3rd Jun 20
UK Corona Catastrophe Trend Analysis - 2nd Jun 20
US Real Estate Stats Show Big Wave Of Refinancing Is Coming - 2nd Jun 20
Let’s Make Sure This Crisis Doesn’t Go to Waste - 2nd Jun 20
Silver and Gold: Balancing More Than 100 Years Of Debt Abuse - 2nd Jun 20
The importance of effective website design in a business marketing strategy - 2nd Jun 20
AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Buying Levels Q2 2020 - 1st Jun 20
M2 Velocity Collapses – Could A Bottom In Capital Velocity Be Setting Up? - 1st Jun 20
The Inflation–Deflation Conundrum - 1st Jun 20
AMD 3900XT, 3800XT, 3600XT Refresh Means Zen 3 4000 AMD CPU's Delayed for 5nm Until 2021? - 1st Jun 20
Why Multi-Asset Brokers Like TRADE.com are the Future of Trading - 1st Jun 20
Will Fed‘s Cap On Interest Rates Trigger Gold’s Rally? - 30th May
Is Stock Market Setting Up for a Blow-Off Top? - 29th May 20
Strong Signs In The Mobile Gaming Market - 29th May 20
Last Clap for NHS and Carers, Sheffield UK - 29th May 20
The AI Mega-trend Stocks Investing - When to Sell? - 28th May 20
Trump vs. Biden: What’s at Stake for Precious Metals Investors? - 28th May 20
Stocks: What to Make of the Day-Trading Frenzy - 28th May 20
Why You’ll Never Get Another Stimulus Check - 28th May 20
Implications for Gold – 2007-9 Great Recession vs. 2020 Coronavirus Crisis - 28th May 20
Ray Dalio Suggests USA Is Entering A Period Of Economic Decline And New World Order - 28th May 20
Europe’s Coronavirus Pandemic Dilemma - 28th May 20
I Can't Pay My Payday Loans What Will Happen - 28th May 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests US Stock Markets 12% Over Valued - 27th May 20
Why Stocks Bear Market Rallies Are So Tricky - 27th May 20
Precious Metals Hit Resistance - 27th May 20
Crude Oil Cuts Get Another Saudi Boost as Oil Demand Begins to Show Signs of Life - 27th May 20
Where the Markets are heading after COVID-19? - 27th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Stock Market Black Monday - Full Crash Alert!

Stock-Markets / Financial Crash Aug 24, 2015 - 10:04 AM GMT

By: Clive_Maund

Stock-Markets

We are now in the “full on” market crash phase predicted and earlier prepared for on clivemaund.com many weeks in advance – it comes as no surprise to us whatsoever. The purpose of this update is to consider what is likely to happen over the next few days and especially tomorrow, Monday.


When a market tips into a crash on a Friday, what typically happens is that the thousands or even millions of investors who believed the mainstream media and didn’t see it coming spend the weekend “stewing” over their investments – and many of them decide to bail out come Monday. Thus we may see a massive down day tomorrow, possibly the worst of the crash phase, and it would not be that surprising to see the Dow Jones Industrials drop by 800 – 1000 points in one day, perhaps even more. Remember that the Dow Jones Industrials “only” dropped 3% on Friday, which is no big deal by the standards of past crashes. What we need to see before this is over is a headline grabbing day where the market collapse is THE big story, and is not relegated to 2nd place by three fellows tackling a terrorist on a French train, as was the case with BBC World News on Friday – Saturday. It will take something like a 800 – 1000 points down day to achieve this which will probably be the worst crash day, and while we might see one or two more down days immediately afterwards, we would soon be at a high volume selling climax marking exhaustion of the panic phase. Thereafter an erratic rally would probably ensue that would be followed by a more measured decline as the market settles into a bearmarket downtrend.

A 2-year chart for the Dow Jones Industrials enables us to see to advantage what is going on. The market plunged on Friday by over 530 points to the black dot above the black arrow, and is obviously in full blown panic mode. The magnitude of the preceding bullmarket and the magnitude of the top area with a huge choppy trading range forming over many months implies that there is more heavy downside to go before the crash phase has exhausted itself. A scenario that looks likely is that the market plunges even harder tomorrow, perhaps as mentioned above by as much as 800 – 100 points tomorrow, before the decline slows on very heavy volume and choppy volatile trading near the support level shown, where it seems likely that a selling climax will occur, followed by a sharp snapback rally. We will be looking to ditch our bear ETFs and Puts in this area. Here we should note that if there is a premature attempt at a rally tomorrow, it would be expected to be followed by renewed decline.

Observe how the crash was presaged by a deterioration in the Dow Jones Transports and the Junk Bond market, among other things, for quite some time before it occurred. These are shown at the top and bottom of the chart.

What should now happen is that Asia becomes a “sea of red” tonight as the crash rolls around the world in a self-perpetuating “Mexican wave” for a few days, and losses in Asia feed further losses in first Europe and then Canada and the US and Latin American markets later and then back to Asia.

By Clive Maund
CliveMaund.com

For billing & subscription questions: subscriptions@clivemaund.com

© 2015 Clive Maund - The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maunds opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications.

Clive Maund Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules