Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Something Happened This Morning

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Sep 10, 2015 - 02:17 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

Good Morning!

Prior to 6:00 am, the SPX futures were up to 1960.00, a near-50% retracement of yesterday’s decline. Then something happened. “S&P 500 e-mini futures have been halted twice (0551ET and 0612ET) in what one market observer exclaimed "looks like manipulation to me." So what exactly happened at 6:12am?”


Selling has begun in earnest and the Premarket is down, after appositive night prior to 6:00 am.

This places me in a quandary about the Cycles. As I have the daily chart marked, Assuming that August 24 is the Master Cycle low (251 days), the (A)-(B)-(C) pattern suggests a very large Wave (C) having just started. That should go to an October 15 low, in time for the next master Cycle bottom.

However, the Diamond formation is not yet complete and is more likely than not to have met its target within the same Cycle decline. If the Diamond formation target can be met in the next 3-5 days, we may have a late Master Cycle (possibly 271 days) early next week in a 5- Wave Leading Diagonal instead of the aforementioned one, as I have annotated on the chart.

Regardless how this all works out, the October 15 master Cycle low appears to be even more certain and deadly. As Bloomberg reports, “It may seem like only yesterday that the U.S. government shut down (actually, it was 2013), followed by promises from Republicans and Democrats alike: Never again.

Turns out never again may be next month.

Inside the Obama administration there is growing concern that Congress will be unable to resolve differences over the U.S. budget by Oct. 1, the start of the 2016 fiscal year, and will stumble into a shutdown though Republican leaders insist they don’t want one. Already, both sides have begun public relations campaigns to pin blame on the other.”

To make matters worse, it appears that TNX just doesn’t want to decline, despite the sell-off in stocks. Should it break back above the 50-day Moving Average at 22.24, it may also break above its Cycle Top resistance at 23.00. TYX is also edging back toward 30.00, which is what put the fear of a rate hike back on the table. Remember, the Feds follow the market, however reluctantly.

Strangely enough, the USD may be headed for a Master Cycle low in mid-October, as well. The August 24 low may not be the end of that decline, as the USD retracement has stalled precisely at the 50-day Moving Average at 96.66. Instead, it may be a Wave [i] of an Ending Diagonal that could decline to as low as 85.00. This would seem to agree with the notion that a government shutdown is being anticipated.

I will be following these developments with an eye to breaking the impasse between the two alternate views.

Regards,

Tony

Our Investment Advisor Registration is on the Web

We are in the process of updating our website at www.thepracticalinvestor.com to have more information on our services. Log on and click on Advisor Registration to get more details.

If you are a client or wish to become one, please make an appointment to discuss our investment strategies by calling Connie or Tony at (517) 699-1554, ext 10 or 11. Or e-mail us at tpi@thepracticalinvestor.com .

Anthony M. Cherniawski, President and CIO http://www.thepracticalinvestor.com

As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in