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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Stock Market Plunge Begins

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Sep 22, 2015 - 03:05 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

Good Morning!

The SPX Premarket is down over 30 points as I write. There is another hour left before the cash market opens, so the probability of a “limit down” at the open or during the trading session is rising. If such a circuit breaker is reached, the market is halted for 15 minutes. The triggers are set at 7%, 13% and 20%.


At the moment, the minimum decline is 1752.00, an 11% drop. Chances are good that this decline should take at least 30 hours from the Thursday high, suggesting the decline may last through the close on Wednesday. The August 24 decline was stopped at the open, so it took 27 hours instead of the 30 hours that I had expected.

The weekly chart gives us the “best perspective” on the potential decline. The Broadening Wedge target has not yet been met, so the range of the decline may be from 1752.00 (Flag target) to 1635.20 (Wedge/Diamond Target).

I expect to see a rally from one of those targets into the Quarter-end.

TNX is acting as it should. It is likely that this decline may be a Wave [iii], which may be very strong.

VIX futures appear to be challenging the Orthodox Broadening Bottom trendline, but hasn’t yet broken out. We should expect to ssee that happen as there may be a rush to hedge positions again.

It may be an exciting day.

Regards,

Tony

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As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

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