Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
Silver Still Cheap Relative to Gold, Trend Forecast Update Video - 19th Sep 19
Baby Boomers Are the Worst Investors in the World - 19th Sep 19
Your $1,229 FREE Tticket to Elliott Market Analysis & Trading Set-ups - 19th Sep 19
Is The Stock Market Other Shoe About To Drop With Fed News? - 19th Sep 19
Bitcoin Price 2019 Trend Current State - 18th Sep 19
No More Realtors… These Start-ups Will Buy Your House in Less than 20 Days - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bugs And Manipulation Theorists Unite – Another “Manipulation” Indictment - 18th Sep 19
Central Bankers' Desperate Grab for Power - 18th Sep 19
Oil Shock! Will War Drums, Inflation Fears Ignite Gold and Silver Markets? - 18th Sep 19
Importance Of Internal Rate Of Return For A Business - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bull Market Ultimate Upside Target - 17th Sep 19
Gold Spikes on the Saudi Oil Attacks: Can It Last? - 17th Sep 19
Stock Market VIX To Begin A New Uptrend and What it Means - 17th Sep 19
Philippines, China and US: Joint Exploration Vs Rearmament and Nuclear Weapons - 17th Sep 19
What Are The Real Upside Targets For Crude Oil Price Post Drone Attack? - 17th Sep 19
Curse of Technology Weapons - 17th Sep 19
Media Hypes Recession Whilst Trump Proposes a Tax on Savings - 17th Sep 19
Understanding Ways To Stretch Your Investments Further - 17th Sep 19
Trading Natural Gas As The Season Changes - 16th Sep 19
Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - 16th Sep 19
These Indicators Point to an Early 2020 Economic Downturn - 16th Sep 19
Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - 16th Sep 19
Stock Market Looking Toppy - 16th Sep 19
Is the Stocks Bull Market Nearing an End? - 16th Sep 19
US Stock Market Indexes Continue to Rally Within A Defined Range - 16th Sep 19
What If Gold Is NOT In A New Bull Market? - 16th Sep 19
A History Lesson For Pundits Who Don’t Believe Stocks Are Overvalued - 16th Sep 19
The Disconnect Between Millennials and Real Estate - 16th Sep 19
Tech Giants Will Crash in the Next Stock Market Downturn - 15th Sep 19
Will Draghi’s Swan Song Revive the Eurozone? And Gold? - 15th Sep 19
The Race to Depreciate Fiat Currencies Is Accelerating - 15th Sep 19
Can Crypto casino beat Hybrid casino - 15th Sep 19
British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - 14th Sep 19
Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - 14th Sep 19
War Gaming the US-China Trade War - 14th Sep 19
Buying a Budgie, Parakeet for the First Time from a Pet Shop - Jollyes UK - 14th Sep 19
Crude Oil Price Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation - 13th Sep 19
A “Looming” Recession Is a Gold Golden Opportunity - 13th Sep 19
Is 2019 Similar to 2007? What Does It Mean For Gold? - 13th Sep 19
How Did the Philippines Establish Itself as a World Leader in Call Centre Outsourcing? - 13th Sep 19
UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - 13th Sep 19
Energy Sector Reaches Key Low Point – Start Looking For The Next Move - 13th Sep 19
Weakening Shale Productivity "VERY Bullish" For Oil Prices - 13th Sep 19
Stock Market Dow to 38,000 by 2022 - 13th Sep 19 - readtheticker
Gold under NIRP? | Negative Interest Rates vs Bullion - 12th Sep 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads and Discs's Replace, Dealer Check and Cost - 12th Sep 19
Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - 12th Sep 19
Increased Pension Liabilities During the Coming Stock Market Crash - 12th Sep 19
Gold at Support: the Upcoming Move - 12th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar, Stocks – How It All Relates – Part II - 12th Sep 19
Boris Johnson's "Do or Die, Dead in a Ditch" Brexit Strategy - 11th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar: How It All Relates – Part I - 11th Sep 19
Bank of England’s Carney Delivers Dollar Shocker at Jackson Hole meeting - 11th Sep 19
Gold and Silver Wounded Animals, Indeed - 11th Sep 19
Boris Johnson a Crippled Prime Minister - 11th Sep 19
Gold Significant Correction Has Started - 11th Sep 19
Reasons To Follow Experienced Traders In Automated Trading - 11th Sep 19
Silver's Sharp Reaction Back - 11th Sep 19
2020 Will Be the Most Volatile Market Year in History - 11th Sep 19
Westminister BrExit Extreme Chaos Puts Britain into a Pre-Civil War State - 10th Sep 19
Gold to Correct as Stocks Rally - 10th Sep 19
Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - 10th Sep 19
Stock Market Sector Rotation Giving Mixed Signals About The Future - 10th Sep 19
The Online Gaming Industry is Going Up - 10th Sep 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Gold and Silver, Precious Metals Complex Getting Interesting

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015 Sep 28, 2015 - 12:48 PM GMT

By: Rambus_Chartology

Commodities

In this report I would like to focus on the PM complex as it has rallied for the last several days. During most of the bear market gold has held up better than the PM stocks and silver so we'll start there to see if we can find any clues on what's really going on.

Last week I noticed a potential small H&S consolidation pattern that was forming above the July lows. Last Thursday I seen the breakout and Friday looks like a backtest to the neckline as it held support through out the day. If this little H&S consolidation pattern plays out it will give gold a price objective up to the 1187.30 area. So far gold has produced a higher low but not a higher high off of the July bottom. The brown shaded support and resistance zone shows major resistance between 1215 and 1230 or so.


Spot Gold Daily Chart

Gold is testing the upper band on the Bollinger bands currently which may offer some short term resistance.

Spot Gold Daily Chart 2

The next chart for gold is a daily line chart that shows the blue triangle with the H&S formation that formed out toward its apex. So far the neckline has held resistance on two separate occasions at 1155. Note the possible little H&S consolidation pattern that is forming just below the apex that we looked at on the first chart above. The 150 dma is also just above the apex and neckline. Needless to say this is a critical area for gold.

Spot Gold Daily Chart 3

Lets look at one last long term weekly chart for gold which we been following for a very long time. This is the weekly reverse symmetry chart goes back to the big rally out of the 2008 crash low. Reverse symmetry just means how a stock went up is often how it comes back down as shown by the black dashed trendlines. What I want to focus in on are S&R lines labeled #1 and #2 inside the red circle.The thin dashed S&R line #1 ended up being the neckline for the smaller H&S that started to form last October and broke down in July of this year. Note how the S&R line reversed its role from support during the formation of the little H&S neckline to resistance on the first backtest around the 1170 area. S&R line #1 or the small neckline maybe tested once again at the 1170 area as a second backtest. If the small neckline holds resistance and gold begins to decline again from the 1170 area the little ping pong move taking place between S&R line #1 and S&R line #2 will have formed a small consolidation pattern between the two trendlines. The all important 65 week moving average now comes in at 1204. Needless to say this is a very important area of overhead resistance.

Spot Gold Weekly Chart

Now lets look at a long term weekly chart for Silver which is showing us a H&S consolidation pattern which is very similar to the one we looked at on the daily chart for gold. This H&S consolidation pattern has formed just below the bottom rail of the blue triangle consolidation pattern. Just like gold it broke its neckline in July of this year and has experience one backtest so far and maybe attempting as second backtest at the 15.75 area. If gold and silver break above their respective necklines that would be the first bullish signs for the PM complex in a very long time. Until the bulls can show their strength and break back above their necklines I will remain a bear. If the bulls do show strength I will have no problem in reversing my nearly four year bearish stance on the PM complex.

Silver Weekly Chart

This last very long term weekly chart for silver shows its potential massive H&S top that has been forming for about four and a half years or so. Again you can see how important the 15.75 backtest to neckline #2 is in the big picture. I know it feels like we may have missed the beginning of the new bull market for some of you in the PM sector but if you look at this chart we are currently trading just off of multi year lows. If for instance silver was ready to launch a brand new bull market the very first thing it would have to do is trade above the neckline at 15.75 and rally up to possibly the right shoulder high on the small H&S pattern. You have to have a higher low and higher high to begin an uptrend. There is no getting around that very simple basic fact.

Silver Weekly Chart 2

Now lets look at the GDX as a proxy for the other PM stock indexes. This first daily chart shows the breakdown from the double H&S top which led to the August low. Its been chopping out what originally looked like a H&S consolidation pattern but the neckline failed to give way and now the price action has rallied back up to the vicinity of the left and right shoulders. It's possible it's building out a more sideways consolidation pattern if the price action can rally back above the center dashed line at the 14.38 area which it has tested twice so far.

Market Vectors Gold Miners Daily Chart

Below is a daily line chart that takes out a lot of the noise a bar chart can make which is showing the possible trading range.

Market Vectors Gold Miners Daily Chart 2

This first long term weekly chart for the GDX shows its massive H&S top and our current and possible new trading range that is forming down at the bottom of the chart.

Market Vectors Gold Miners Weekly Chart

This next weekly chart shows the potentially bearish falling wedge. The breakout and backtesting has been rather laborious so far but nothing is broke yet in regards to the bearish falling wedge. If the bulls are in charge the very first thing that will get my attention is if they can take the price action above the top rail of the falling wedge. It's as simple as that.

Market Vectors Gold Miners Weekly Chart 2

The next chart shows a close up view of the falling wedge which is made up from the blue triangle and the H&S consolidation pattern. Real short term resistance comes in at the bottom rail of the falling wedge at the 14.40 area.

Market Vectors Gold Miners Weekly Chart 3

Next is a longer term weekly view for the GDX which shows the price action is testing the bottom rail of the falling wedge with the 2008 crash low coming in at 15.20 which has already been tested once so far, brown shade rectangle. The bulls are looking at this falling wedge as a bullish falling wedge which may come to pass but until the top rail is broken to the upside the main trend is down. If the falling wedge plays out to the downside I have the two different price objective labeled below using two different measuring techniques.

Market Vectors Gold Miners Weekly Chart 4

One last chart for tonight will be the long term monthly line chart for the GDX which shows the entire history for this PM stock index. This monthly line chart really takes out the noise and shows you how the bear market has unfolded since the massive H&S top in 2011. Maybe the current low is the beginning of the new bull market as so many folks are talking about right now. If it is this chart shows you that you have missed very little of the new bull market if the gold bugs are correct.This chart also shows you how hard it has been to trade the long side of this bear market.

I'm going to wrap up this Weekend Report and go outside and watch the lunar eclipse as Mother Nature is getting ready to put on a beautiful show for us tonight. All the best...Rambus

Market Vectors Gold Miners Monthly Chart

All the best

Gary (for Rambus Chartology)

http://rambus1.com

FREE TRIAL - http://rambus1.com/?page_id=10

© 2015 Copyright Rambus- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Rambus Chartology Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules