Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Oil, Gold and Stocks Investing – Part II - 12th Nov 19
Gold Retest Coming - 12th Nov 19
New Evidence Futures Markets Are Built for Manipulation - 12th Nov 19
Next 5 Year Future Proof Gaming PC Build Spec November 2019 - Ryzen 9 3900x, RTX 2080Ti... - 12th Nov 19
Gold and Silver - The Two Horsemen - 11th Nov 19
Towards a Diverging BRIC Future - 11th Nov 19
Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Stock Market Investing - 11th Nov 19
Illiquidity & Gold And Silver In The End Game - 11th Nov 19
Key Things You Need to Know When Starting a Business - 11th Nov 19
Stock Market Cycles Peaking - 11th Nov 19
Avoid Emotional Investing in Cryptocurrency - 11th Nov 19
Australian Lithium Mines NOT Viable at Current Prices - 10th Nov 19
The 10 Highest Paying Jobs In Oil & Gas - 10th Nov 19
World's Major Gold Miners Target Copper Porphyries - 10th Nov 19
AMAZON NOVEMBER 2019 BARGAIN PRICES - WD My Book 8TB External Drive for £126 - 10th Nov 19
Gold & Silver to Head Dramatically Higher, Mirroring Palladium - 9th Nov 19
How Do YOU Know the Direction of a Market's Larger Trend? - 9th Nov 19
BEST Amazon SMART Scale To Aid Weight Loss for Christmas 2019 - 9th Nov 19
Why Every Investor Should Invest in Water - 8th Nov 19
Wait… Was That a Bullish Silver Reversal? - 8th Nov 19
Gold, Silver and Copper The 3 Metallic Amigos and the Macro Message - 8th Nov 19
Is China locking up Indonesian Nickel? - 8th Nov 19
Where is the Top for Natural Gas? - 7th Nov 19
Why Fractional Shares Don’t Make Sense - 7th Nov 19
The Fed Is Chasing Its Own Tail; It Doesn’t Care What You Think - 7th Nov 19
China’s path from World’s Factory to World Market - 7th Nov 19
Where Is That Confounded Recession? - 7th Nov 19
FREE eBook - The Investment Strategy that could change your future - 7th Nov 19
Is There a Stock Market Breakout Ahead? - 6th Nov 19
These Indicators Aren’t Putting to an Economic Resurgence - 6th Nov 19
Understanding the Different Types of Travel Insurance - 6th Nov 19
The Biggest Gold Story Of 2020 - 6th Nov 19
Best Money Saving FREE Bonfire Night Fire Works Show Sheffield 2019 - 5th Nov 19
Is the Run on the US Dollar Due to Panic or Greed? - 5th Nov 19
Reasons Why Madrid Attracts Young Professionals - 5th Nov 19
Larger Bullish Move in USD/JPY May Just Be Getting Started - 5th Nov 19
Constructive Action in Gold & Silver Stocks - 5th Nov 19
The Boring Industry That Hands +500% Gains - 5th Nov 19
Stock Market Chartology vs Fundamentals - 4th Nov 19
The Fed’s Policy Is Like Swatting Flies with Nuclear Weapons - 4th Nov 19
Stock Market Warning: US Credit Delinquencies To Skyrocket In Q4 - 4th Nov 19
Stock Market Intermediate Topping Process Continues - 4th Nov 19
Stock Market $SPY Expanded Flat, Déjà Vu All Over Again - 4th Nov 19
How To Buy Gold For $3 An Ounce - 4th Nov 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How To Buy Gold For $3 An Ounce

Californian Housing Market in Meltdown, Liar Loan Writedowns Have Barely Begun

Housing-Market / US Housing Jun 28, 2008 - 03:59 PM GMT

By: Mike_Shedlock

Housing-Market Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMy friend "TC" monitors C.A.R. data, DQNews data, and Case-Shiller Data. Case-Shiller data was out a few days ago and you can read about it in Case Shiller Futures Suggest 2010 Housing Bottom .

What follows is an analysis of data from the California Association of Realtors from "TC" who tracks the data month by month and is looking at things from perspective of percent declines from the peak.


"TC" writes: I put together the just released May 2008 CAR data. As you can see the CA median home price is now down more than $200K and every region CAR tracks but one is down at least $100K. Additionally, 3 regions are now nearing a $500K median price decline. The declines in these areas is more than twice as much as the national median price!

Source: C.A.R. reports sales increased 18.1 percent; median home price fell 35.3 percent in May



According to CAR half of the decline is because of "shifts in the types of homes selling" and half due to price depreciation. Their calculation of "shifts in the types of homes selling" however is flawed. This because they base the shift on the % of jumbo loans. The problem with this method is that as prices decline the % of jumbo loans naturally moves lower so one can't automatically assume the "credit crunch" has lead to an equal % of the median price change.

However, CAR is in part correct that the credit crunch is having an effect on CA median home prices. In order to get a more accurate picture of how much I use the Case-Shiller data which using the repeated-sales methodology. This methodology is typically the most accurate representation of home prices (however Case-Shiller only tracks a few CA markets which is why I enjoy the CAR data as well).

Using the Case-Shiller data as a baseline one can see that about 1/4 of the median price decline can be attributed to the credit crunch statewide, with the other 3/4 of the decline being actual home depreciation.

Discussion Of Data Presentation Bias

The percentage declines from the peak is an admittedly biased way of looking at things as it makes each decline as large as possible. However there is an overall number from CAR and DQNews that shows the peak to be in April, May of 2007.

Is there any wonder that late vintage loans are defaulting at such a high rate. Liar loans were still ramping late 2006. Those liar loans found their way into various Alt-A pools. For a recent look at one Alt-A pool and what defaults are doing please take a peek at Is The Inflation Scare Over Yet?

Writeoffs in California have barely begun. However, the market is increasingly aware of what must happen. You can see it in the charts.

Washington Mutual Daily Chart





Washington Mutual (WM) crossed the magic threshold of $5. Many mutual funds have a requirement about market cap and price. Those with a threshold of $5 may have to dump it if it does not quickly recover.

On a purely fundamental basis, more writedowns on account of Alt-A liar loans are coming. More people will be walking away from their homes in California and Florida. Approximately 75-80% of those in liar loans only make the minimum payment. Negative amortization increases every month in those loans. On top of that, home prices are falling rapidly. Add the two together and anyone who put down even as much as 20% is now hugely underwater.

At some point escalation clauses will kick in. Escalation clauses vary by contract, but typically vary between 110% of the loan to 125% of the loan. Those clauses should be kicking in now, in mass, based on price depreciation alone.

Have they in practice? Think again. It would be the kiss of death for either WaMu or Wachovia to start enforcing those clauses, homeowners would immediately default. Instead, both banks pretend they are well capitalized when it is increasing apparent they are likely insolvent.

I fail to see how either of those banks survive. The Fed's policy so far is to have the relatively strong take over the pathetically weak. Examples of this are the shotgun wedding between JPMorgan (JPM) and Bear Stearns (BSC), and Bank of America (BAC) and Countrywide Financial (CFC).

Strong Become Weak

Eventually the strong become weak because of these actions. Bernanke's actions suggest there is no bank strong enough to take over the banks are about to fail. And that is why Bernanke is scrambling around like a mad fool (See Fed Looking To Bend Rules To Aid Banks ), directly soliciting private equity firms to invest in banks.

The situation is so dire that Turf Wars Between Fed, SEC, Congress, Treasury are being openly fought in public.

If those private equity firms were smart they will treat this Fed offering like a Trojan Horse.

By Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management . Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Visit Sitka Pacific's Account Management Page to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

I do weekly podcasts every Thursday on HoweStreet and a brief 7 minute segment on Saturday on CKNW AM 980 in Vancouver.

When not writing about stocks or the economy I spends a great deal of time on photography and in the garden. I have over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Some of my Wisconsin and gardening images can be seen at MichaelShedlock.com .

© 2008 Mike Shedlock, All Rights Reserved

Mike Shedlock Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules