Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Silver Is Close To Something Big - 2nd Mar 21
Bitcoin: Let's Put 2 Heart-Pounding Price Drops into Perspective - 2nd Mar 21
Gold Stocks Spring Rally 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
US Housing Market Trend Forecast 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
Covid-19 Vaccinations US House Prices Trend Indicator 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
How blockchain technology will change the online casino - 2nd Mar 21
How Much PC RAM Memory is Good in 2021, 16gb, 32gb or 64gb? - 2nd Mar 21
US Housing Market House Prices Momentum Analysis - 26th Feb 21
FOMC Minutes Disappoint Gold Bulls - 26th Feb 21
Kiss of Life for Gold - 26th Feb 21
Congress May Increase The Moral Hazard Building In The Stock Market - 26th Feb 21
The “Oil Of The Future” Is Set To Soar In 2021 - 26th Feb 21
The Everything Stock Market Rally Continues - 25th Feb 21
Vaccine inequality: A new beginning or another missed opportunity? - 25th Feb 21
What's Next Move For Silver, Gold? Follow US Treasuries and Commodities To Find Out - 25th Feb 21
Warren Buffett Buys a Copper Stock! - 25th Feb 21
Work From Home Inflationary US House Prices BOOM! - 25th Feb 21
Man Takes First Steps Towards Colonising Mars - Nasa Perseverance Rover in Jezero Crater - 25th Feb 21
Musk, Bezos And Cook Are Rushing To Lock In New Lithium Supply - 25th Feb 21
US Debt and Yield Curve (Spread between 2 year and 10 year US bonds) - 24th Feb 21
Should You Buy a Landrover Discovery Sport in 2021? - 24th Feb 21
US Housing Market 2021 and the Inflation Mega-trend - QE4EVER! - 24th Feb 21
M&A Most Commonly Used Software - 24th Feb 21
Is More Stock Market Correction Needed? - 24th Feb 21
VUZE XR Camera 180 3D VR Example Footage Video Image quality - 24th Feb 21
How to Protect Your Positions From A Stock Market Sell-Off Using Options - 24th Feb 21
Why Isn’t Retail Demand for Silver Pushing Up Prices? - 24th Feb 21
2 Stocks That Could Win Big In The Trillion Dollar Battery War - 24th Feb 21
US Economic Trends - GDP, Inflation and Unemployment Impact on House Prices 2021 - 23rd Feb 21
Why the Sky Is Not Falling in Precious Metals - 23rd Feb 21
7 Things Every Businessman Should Know - 23rd Feb 21
For Stocks, has the “Rational Bubble” Popped? - 23rd Feb 21
Will Biden Overheat the Economy and Gold? - 23rd Feb 21
Precious Metals Under Seige? - 23rd Feb 21
US House Prices Trend Forecast Review - 23rd Feb 21
Lithium Prices Soar As Tesla, Apple And Google Fight For Supply - 23rd Feb 21
Stock Markets Discounting Post Covid Economic Boom - 22nd Feb 21
Economics Is Why Vaccination Is So Hard - 22nd Feb 21
Pivotal Session In Stocks Bull Bear Battle - 22nd Feb 21
Gold’s Downtrend: Is This Just the Beginning? - 22nd Feb 21
The Most Exciting Commodities Play Of 2021? - 22nd Feb 21
How to Test NEW and Used GPU, and Benchmark to Make sure it is Working Properly - 22nd Feb 21
US House Prices Vaccinations Indicator - 21st Feb 21
S&P 500 Correction – No Need to Hold Onto Your Hat - 21st Feb 21
Gold Setting Up Major Bottom So Could We See A Breakout Rally Begin Soon? - 21st Feb 21
Owning Real Assets Amid Surreal Financial Markets - 21st Feb 21
Great Investment Ideas For 2021 - 21st Feb 21
US House Prices Momentum Analysis - 20th Feb 21
The Most Important Chart in Housing Right Now - 20th Feb 21
Gold Is the Ultimate Reserve Asset - 20th Feb 21
Is That the S&P 500 And Gold Correction Finally? - 20th Feb 21
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD - 20th Feb 21
The Stock Market Big Picture - 19th Feb 21
Could Silver "Do a Palladium"? - 19th Feb 21
Three More Reasons We Love To Trade Options! - 19th Feb 21
Here’s What’s Eating Away at Gold - 19th Feb 21
Stock Market March Melt-Up Madness - 19th Feb 21
Land Rover Discovery Sport Extreme Ice and Snow vs Windscreen Wipers Test - 19th Feb 21
Real Reason Why Black and Asian BAME are NOT Getting Vaccinated - NHS Covid-19 Vaccinations - 19th Feb 21
New BNPL Regulations Leave Zilch Leading the Way - 19th Feb 21
Work From Home Inflationary House Prices BOOM! - 18th Feb 21
Why This "Excellent" Stock Market Indicator Should Be on Your Radar Screen Now - 18th Feb 21
The Commodity Cycle - 18th Feb 21
Silver Backwardation and Other Evidence of a Silver Supply Squeeze - 18th Feb 21
Why I’m Avoiding These “Bottle Rocket” Stocks Like GameStop - 18th Feb 21
S&P 500 Correction Delayed Again While Silver Runs - 18th Feb 21
Silver Prices Are About to Explode as Stars are Lining up Like Never Before! - 18th Feb 21
Cannabis, Alternative Agra, Mushrooms, and Cryptos – Everything ALT is HOT - 18th Feb 21
Crypto Mining Craze, How We Mined 6 Bitcoins with a PS4 Gaming Console - 18th Feb 21
Stock Market Trend Forecasts Analysis Review - 17th Feb 21
Vaccine Nationalism Is a Multilateral, Neocolonial Failure - 17th Feb 21
First year of a Stocks bull market, or End of a Bubble? - 17th Feb 21
5 Reasons Why People Prefer to Trade Options Over Stocks - 17th Feb 21
The Gold & Gold Stock Corrections Are Normal - 17th Feb 21
WARNING Oculus Quest 2 Update v25 BROKE My VR Headset! - 17th Feb 21
UK Covid-19 Parks PACKED During Lockdown Despite "Stay at Home" Message - Endcliffe Park Sheffield - 17th Feb 21
How to Invest in ETFs in the UK - 17th Feb 21
Real Reason Why Black and Asian Ethnic minorities are NOT Getting Vaccinated - NHS Covid-19 Vaccinations - 16th Feb 21
THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND QE4EVER! - 16th Feb 21
Gold / Silver: What This "Large Non-Confirmation" May Mean - 16th Feb 21
Major Optimism for Platinum, Silver, and Copper - 16th Feb 21
S&P 500 Correction Looming, Just as in Gold – Or Not? - 16th Feb 21
Stock Market Last pull-back before intermediate top? - 16th Feb 21
GAMESTOP MANIA BUBBLE BURSTS! Investing Newbs Pump and Dump Roller coaster Ride - 16th Feb 21
Thinking About Starting to Trade This Year? Here Are Some Things to Keep in Mind - 16th Feb 21
US House Prices Real Estate Trend Forecast Review - 15th Feb 21
Will Tesla Charge Gold With Energy? - 15th Feb 21
Feeling the Growing Heat and Tensions in Stocks? - 15th Feb 21
Morgan Stanley Warns Gasoline Industry Is About to Become Totally Worthless - 15th Feb 21
Debts Lift Gold - Precious Metal Prices Will Rise on a Deluge of Red Ink - 15th Feb 21
Platinum Begins Big Breakout Rally - 15th Feb 21
How to Change Car Battery Without Losing Power, Memory, Radio Code Settings - 15th Feb 21
Five reasons why a financial advisor can make a big difference to your small business - 15th Feb 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

The 5th Convergence…An Economic & Financial Superstorm That Will Devastate America

Economics / Cycles Analysis Oct 07, 2015 - 02:12 PM GMT

By: Harry_Dent

Economics This morning we had to face some hard truths. The economy’s beginning to show its true colors.

Last month the economy added just 142,000 jobs. August was revised substantially lower to just 136,000 jobs. Analysts were expecting 200,000-plus jobs growth like it would go on forever.


Of course, I’m not the least bit surprised. You know I’ve seen this coming.

I’ve spent the last 30 years developing something no economist thought possible.

In fact, I’m not really an economist. I’m an entrepreneur in economics.

Entrepreneurs are almost like criminals. They attack society’s norms. Both are creative, and even many criminals become famous for what they do – like Jesse James, Butch Cassidy, the Sundance Kid, or even mob bosses like Al Capone.

The difference, of course, is that entrepreneurs attack society and business in a constructive manner.

My breakthrough research has shown that you and I can predict the key economic trends that will impact the rest of your lifetime today.

It took me 10 years to get my first major insights, and now 30 years to perfect a long-term model for our economy.

Most economists tell you that they may be able to predict the trends into the next election, and most of them can’t even do that. But no one, they say, can predict the future beyond that…

I beg to differ!

I got my first breakthrough indicator in 1988: a 46-year lag on the birth index for the peak in spending for new generations, like the massive baby boom.

How simple is that?

Knowing that – along with a 20-year lag for workforce entry that best forecast inflation trends and interest rates – I was able to predict the mega boom of the 1990s into 2007 with its falling interest rates.

After 2007, I saw deflation ­– and look what happened! I simultaneously predicted the collapse of Japan when everyone thought they would take over the world. Look what happened there!

Since those earlier predictions, I’ve greatly expanded my research.

When 9/11 hit, I knew demographics didn’t tell the whole story. Nothing’s been the same since. It’s been one negative geopolitical event after the next.

That led to the discovery of my second macroeconomic indicator: the geopolitical cycle.

It’s like clockwork: every 17 to 18 years, it changes. Its current phase points down to around early 2020, rounding out the geopolitical environment started by 9/11.

This is the cycle that most affects stock valuations, as the risk premium goes up in such adverse times.

The next was an innovation cycle that spans 45 years.

Every 45 years, powerful clusters of technologies finally move mainstream, revolutionizing how we work and live.

Steamships and canals peaked into 1875; then railroads and telegraphs into 1920; then automobiles, highways and electrical appliances like TVs into 1965; and most recently the Internet and handheld computing devices into around 2010.

Each one, 45 years after the other!

We tend to think progress moves in a straight line. It doesn’t. It won’t be until 2032 to 2055 before we see the next mainstream innovation cycle that transforms our lives and work. Until then, we have Facebook for entertainment!

But it’s my final indicator that best predicts the timing for major stocks crashes and financial crises: a decennial boom/bust cycle originally identified by Ned Davis.

Davis looked at stocks all the way back to 1900, and learned that the worst stock crashes and recessions tend to occur in the first two to three years of every decade. That’s especially been the case since the 1960s.

Of course, this didn’t play out in 2010 to 2012. That’s what made me dig deeper. It turned out, 10 years was too exact – the cycle actually manifested between 8 and 13 years.

This cycle is certainly more variable than I would have thought. 10 years sure would’ve been easier. But it’s tracked and measured by major scientists, as it affects everything – from agriculture, to satellites, to electronic infrastructures.

The last cycle was more extreme, peaking in early 2000 and bottoming in late 2009. And in it, we saw not just one, but two major crashes and recessions.

This next started in 2014 and doesn’t bottom out until around early 2020.

But the truly frightening part, is that all of these cycles are in their downward phases at the same time.

You’ll notice from the most recent periods where all four cycles spelled trouble, truly awful things happened. The Great Depression… the inflationary financial crisis of the 1970s… and now, this.

In fact, this "convergence" has only happened 5 times in the past 200 years... each with devastating results.

That’s why I believe the next financial crisis and depression is inevitable. I’ve been forecasting it for years.

And I believe, with the convergence of these four cycles, it’ll be much worse than the last crisis in 2008/2009.

That’s why, if we don’t have a major financial crisis and stock crash between late this year and early 2020, I will quit my profession and become a limo driver in Australia.

I doubt it’ll come to that, because based on what I see, it’s already starting to happen.

Economists, Wall Street analysts, and your stock broker, will not see this coming.

Protect yourself now and sell any financial assets you aren’t actively trading, like with one of our analysts who actually see this coming, before the greatest bubble in history continues to burst.

Harry

http://economyandmarkets.com

Follow me on Twitter @HarryDentjr

Harry studied economics in college in the ’70s, but found it vague and inconclusive. He became so disillusioned by the state of the profession that he turned his back on it. Instead, he threw himself into the burgeoning New Science of Finance, which married economic research and market research and encompassed identifying and studying demographic trends, business cycles, consumers’ purchasing power and many, many other trends that empowered him to forecast economic and market changes.

Copyright © 2015 Harry Dent- All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Harry Dent Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules