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Trading Lessons

Gold And Silver Trapped In A Low-End Trading Range

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015 Oct 10, 2015 - 12:58 PM GMT

By: Michael_Noonan

Commodities

Syria: An example why gold and silver have not rallied, and an example of why gold and silver ultimately will rally.

As a side note, never in the history of the world has a fiat paper currency ever survived. Never before in history has there been so much fiat-created paper currency nor has there ever been as much debt in the world. Never before has the demand for gold and silver been greater, nor the supply of same less, relative to the demand. Obviously, as we have stated in the past, the natural factors of supply and demand are of no consequence for the pricing of gold and silver.


This makes Syria an interesting topic, seemingly non-related to how PMs are currently priced, and there are hundreds of topics that could be used to make the same point, which in itself is part of the point to be made. Syria is but a symptom. The core is the international globalists creating havoc around the world as its massive Ponzi scheme has begun to spiral out of control.

Events are speeding up making it almost impossible to keep up with what seems to be so many disparate occurrences, when in reality, all are symptomatic of the core catalyst. What we like about Syria is how it exposes both the US hypocrisy and phony bluster when the might of US forces is pitted against an equal, if not superior opposing force, as in its "non confrontation" with Russia.

The US has purportedly been fighting "terrorism" [much of it its own creation], in Syria for the past few years. First, it was anti-Syrian rebels fighting to oust Assad [because the US wants to replace him with a compliant pro-Western puppet head]. Then the CIA-financially backed, armed, and trained ISIS was created, ostensibly as a terrorist group, in general, but with Western intent of toppling Assad. So, the US has been "fighting ISIS" for the past three years, unable to eradicate the rag-tag, black-clothed fighters wearing their Air Jordan sneakers, correction...Air Jihadis, to no practical effect.

Enter Putin who says Russia wants to form a coalition with the US and get rid of ISIS once and for all. We often make reference to the over-used analogy of Putin being a master chess player to his counter-part mediocre checkers player, Obama, simply because it is so apt. Would the US join forces with Russia to do what the US claims it has been trying to do for the past few years, spending billions of fiat in the process? Of course not!

In a few weeks of Russian air force jets bombing specific ISIS strongholds and munitions depots, more damage was effectively inflicted than the "vaunted US military forces," among the world's finest and most effective...especially when fighting almost defenseless countries with no air force and with questionable regular army forces. While Russia was busy bombing ISIS, the US managed to bomb a hospital in Afghanistan, purposefully killing doctors and children and calling the deaths "collateral damage."

What Putin did was expose the hypocrisy of the US, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, none serious about fighting ISIS. Rather than offer to help coordinating fighting the forces bent on killing civilians and making life miserable for Syrians, the US and its "allies" offered nothing but criticism against Russia, claiming the Russian bombings were actually helping to support a "murderous regime."

Did we mention the US regime had just bombed a defenseless Afghan hospital? Or what about the drone strikes for years in Pakistan that killed more civilians, many of which were children and women, and the US could never really substantiate the number of "terrorists" killed. There was more recent US media attention to a Russian bomb that killed four sheep than was given the Saudi killing of hundreds of defenseless Yemeni civilians.

Rather than show support for the fact that the Syrians were becoming more secure in their own country, once Russia entered the picture, the Obama administration chose to characterize the Russian air strikes as "indiscriminate military operations." Who should know better what those three words mean than the Nobel Peace Prize recipient Obama?

Should not Syria have the most to say about what is going on in its own country? Syrians are gratefully welcoming the Russians, much like Europeans welcomed American soldiers liberating them from the German Nazis. Times and priorities have changed for the US. The US has no interest or concern what the Syrians want. All that matters are US interests.

As event have unfolded, all under Obama's watch,it now appears that he is going to fold like a wet noodle. This Syrian debacle, at least for the US, started in 2011 and then intensified with a US naval assault that almost led to war in 2013, which then led to the "sudden emergence" of ISIS, a terrorist group that would "take years to defeat"...which has certainly been true in how Obama has been handling ISIS, his hoped-for means of getting rid of Assad. The "take years to defeat" was true only if the Russian air force was not a participant.

Syria and Russia have been allies since the 1950s. Did Obama really think Putin would not defend a long-time ally, especially such a strategic one?

This is not about Syria, per se, even for Putin. It is all about what could amount to a major Russian coup and take-over of the Middle East by Putin, and make no mistake, China is ready and willing to step in to asset Russia, Chinese war ships already en route to support Russia's efforts. The US, Saudis, and Qatar want Assad out in order to get a natural gas pipeline from Qatar through Syria, then onto supply Europe and remove Russia as a major supplier of natural gas, also going through Syria.

If Russia succeeds in securing Syrian air space, Iran will have the ability to exert greater influence in Syria. Iran is Shia. The Saudis and Qatar are Sunnis and hate Iran. Saudi Arabia and Qatar fear Iranian control in their backyard. The US has been humiliated by the Russians. Saudi Arabia and Qatar are incensed, both with the US and their apparent loss of influence in this critical sphere. Will the Arabs back down as the US has, or will they risk fighting Russia, and maybe then with the US willing to join in yet another military conflict?

This is what the US and Western central controlling globalists do: fight, divide, destroy, then step in and take over. Syria is interesting as a symptom of how influential the globalists are, just as they have been influential in suppressing gold and silver. Syria is also interesting because it shows how the globalists are losing control, no longer assured of remaining unopposed, and eventually, the globalist stranglehold on gold and silver will give way just as it did to unopposed Russian intervention.

What chance did Afghanistan, Egypt, Libya, Iraq stand against the superior forces of the US? What chance does the US stand against a more modern-equipped Russia, willing to stand up and call the US bluff? How willing is the US to oppose China, in addition to Russia?

Right now, Germany is under attack by the US via the Volkswagen fiasco, VW being fined such an excessive amount for a violation against the Environmental Protection Agency for having "rigged" emissions tests. Say what? GM was fined about $1 billion for its issues a few years back for ignition recalls. Why should VW be fined $8 billion, or more? The US is sending a message to Germany: do not abandon the dollar with your car sales by using other currencies. So far, the Germans have hoisted a white flag, capitulating to the superior financial central bank "army" to maintain control.

Like Syria, Germany is but another of hundreds of symptoms in how the globalist game is played, always by a threat with promised destruction to follow for failure to follow the globalist script. At some point, and it is becoming sooner than ever before, the globalists will be counter-attacked by almost all those with whom they forcibly align, including Germany, a strong country which chooses to subjugate itself to fading globalist strength.

These are the influencing forces on gold and silver, not record coin sales, not record purchases month in and month out for the past few years by China, India, and Russia.

Waiting patiently on the sidelines are gold and silver, wanting to have their day, and that day will happen, just not knowing when.

Again, while the current rally seems fairly decent on the daily, the more controlling larger weekly time frame is not that impressive. A weekly chart is a stronger guide than a daily. Even the smaller range of last week, relative to the week before, suggests sellers are keeping a check on this market, at least for now.

Weekly Gold Chart

The daily chart reflects more of a TR [Trading Range], as opposed to a rally. While there have been a series of higher swing lows, the 1170 swing high has not been exceeded, and that keeps our definition of a trend change in the TR category. The recent strength in gold is not as positive as it may appear to many. More is needed.

Daily Gold Chart

A red flag is a note of caution that could lead to change, unless otherwise qualified. Silver remains locked in a protracted TR, and until price breakout above the 19 area, on a wide range bar and strong volume, silver is a non event, no matter what the fundamentals say.

Weekly Silver Chart

Even the apparent "breakout" to the upside of a minor TR has not been that impressive, in terms of upside follow through after last Tuesday, 4 bars from the end. As noted on the chart, the mid-range closings of Thursday and Friday, and sharply higher volume on Thursday, suggests sellers had a slight edge over buyers, on an intra day basis. It is just a note of caution as/if the rally continues higher into the next resistance level.

Daily Silver Chart

By Michael Noonan

http://edgetraderplus.com

Michael Noonan, mn@edgetraderplus.com, is a Chicago-based trader with over 30 years in the business. His sole approach to analysis is derived from developing market pattern behavior, found in the form of Price, Volume, and Time, and it is generated from the best source possible, the market itself.

© 2015 Copyright Michael Noonan - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Michael Noonan Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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