Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
PAYPAL WARNING - Your Stimulus Funds Are at Risk of Being Frozen for 6 Months! - 5th Apr 20
Stocks Hanging By the Fingernails? - 5th Apr 20
US Federal Budget Deficits: To $30 Trillion and Beyond - 5th Apr 20
The Lucrative Profitability Of A Move To Negative Interest Rates - Pandemic Edition - 5th Apr 20
Visa Denials: How to avoid it and what to do if your Visa is denied? - 5th Apr 20 - Uday Tank
WARNING PAYPAL Making a Grab for US $1200 Stimulus Payments - 4th Apr 20
US COVID-19 Death Toll Higher Than China’s Now. Will Gold Rally? - 4th Apr 20
Concerned That Asia Could Blow A Hole In Future Economic Recovery - 4th Apr 20
Bracing for Europe’s Coronavirus Contractionand Debt Crisis - 4th Apr 20
Stocks: When Grass Looks Greener on the Other Side of the ... Pond - 3rd Apr 20
How the C-Factor Could Decimate 2020 Global Gold and Silver Production - 3rd Apr 20
US Between Scylla and Charybdis Covid-19 - 3rd Apr 20
Covid19 What's Your Risk of Death Analysis by Age, Gender, Comorbidities and BMI - 3rd Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections & Deaths Trend Trajectory - How Bad Will it Get? - 2nd Apr 20
Silver Looks Bearish Short to Medium Term - 2nd Apr 20
Mickey Fulp: 'Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste' - 2nd Apr 20
Stock Market Selloff Structure Explained – Fibonacci On Deck - 2nd Apr 20
COVID-19 FINANCIAL LOCKDOWN: Can PAYPAL Be Trusted to Handle US $1200 Stimulus Payments? - 2nd Apr 20
Day in the Life of Coronavirus LOCKDOWN - Sheffield, UK - 2nd Apr 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast - 1st Apr 20
Huge Unemployment Is Coming. Will It Push Gold Prices Up? - 1st Apr 20
Gold Powerful 2008 Lessons That Apply Today - 1st Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 1st Apr 20
From Global Virus Acceleration to Global Debt Explosion - 1st Apr 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying Before Lock Down - Tesco Empty Shelves - 1st Apr 20
Gold From a Failed Breakout to a Failed Breakdown - 1st Apr 20
P FOR PANDEMIC - 1st Apr 20
The Past Stock Market Week Was More Important Than You May Understand - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus - No, You Do Not Hear the Fat Lady Warming Up - 31st Mar 20
Life, Religions, Business, Globalization & Information Technology In The Post-Corona Pandemics Age - 31st Mar 20
Three Charts Every Stock Market Trader and Investor Must See - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast - Video - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Into End April 2020 Trend Forecast - 31st Mar 20
Is it better to have a loan or credit card debt when applying for a mortgage? - 31st Mar 20
US and UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectories vs Bear Market and AI Stocks Sector - 30th Mar 20
Are Gold and Silver Mirroring 1999 to 2011 Again? - 30th Mar 20
Stock Market Next Cycle Low 7th April - 30th Mar 20
United States Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Forecasts Into End April 2020 - 29th Mar 20
Some Positives in a Virus Wracked World - 29th Mar 20
Expert Tips to Save on Your Business’s Office Supply Purchases - 29th Mar 20
An Investment in Life - 29th Mar 20
Sheffield Coronavirus Pandemic Infections and Deaths Forecast - 29th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 28th Mar 20
The Great Coronavirus Depression - Things Are Going to Change. Here’s What We Should Do - 28th Mar 20
One of the Biggest Stock Market Short Covering Rallies in History May Be Imminent - 28th Mar 20
The Fed, the Coronavirus and Investing - 28th Mar 20
Women’s Fashion Trends in the UK this 2020 - 28th Mar 20
The Last Minsky Financial Snowflake Has Fallen – What Now? - 28th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast Into End April 2020 - 28th Mar 20
DJIA Coronavirus Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 27th Mar 20
US and UK Case Fatality Rate Forecast for End April 2020 - 27th Mar 20
US Stock Market Upswing Meets Employment Data - 27th Mar 20
Will the Fed Going Nuclear Help the Economy and Gold? - 27th Mar 20
What you need to know about the impact of inflation - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity, Flattening the Curve and Case Fatality Rate Analysis - 27th Mar 20
NHS Hospitals Before Coronavirus Tsunami Hits (Sheffield), STAY INDOORS FINAL WARNING! - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Curve, Stock Market Crash, and Mortgage Massacre - 27th Mar 20
Finding an Expert Car Accident Lawyer - 27th Mar 20
We Are Facing a Depression, Not a Recession - 26th Mar 20
US Housing Real Estate Market Concern - 26th Mar 20
Covid-19 Pandemic Affecting Bitcoin - 26th Mar 20
Italy Coronavirus Case Fataility Rate and Infections Trend Analysis - 26th Mar 20
Why Is Online Gambling Becoming More Popular? - 26th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock Markets CRASH! - 26th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity and Flattening the Curve - 25th Mar 20
Coronavirus Lesson #1 for Investors: Beware Predictions of Stock Market Bottoms - 25th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Stock Market Trend Implications - 25th Mar 20
Pandemonium in Precious Metals Market as Fear Gives Way to Command Economy - 25th Mar 20
Pandemics and Gold - 25th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Hotspots - Cities with Highest Risks of Getting Infected - 25th Mar 20
WARNING US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic! - 24th Mar 20
Coronavirus Crisis - Weeks Where Decades Happen - 24th Mar 20
Industry Trends: Online Casinos & Online Slots Game Market Analysis - 24th Mar 20
Five Amazingly High-Tech Products Just on the Market that You Should Check Out - 24th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus WARNING - Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - 24th Mar 20
Rick Rule: 'A Different Phrase for Stocks Bear Market Is Sale' - 24th Mar 20
Stock Market Minor Cycle Bounce - 24th Mar 20
Gold’s century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed - 24th Mar 20
Big Tech Is Now On The Offensive Against The Coronavirus - 24th Mar 20
Socialism at Its Finest after Fed’s Bazooka Fails - 24th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock and Financial Markets CRASH! - 23rd Mar 20
Will Trump’s Free Cash Help the Economy and Gold Market? - 23rd Mar 20
Coronavirus Clarifies Priorities - 23rd Mar 20
Could the Coronavirus Cause the Next ‘Arab Spring’? - 23rd Mar 20
Concerned About The US Real Estate Market? Us Too! - 23rd Mar 20
Gold Stocks Peak Bleak? - 22nd Mar 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-bear-market-2020-analysis

Economic Forecasts and Analysis For US Financial Markets (June 30-July 4)

Economics / US Economy Jun 30, 2008 - 01:21 AM GMT

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

Economics Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe country may be celebrating its independence, but the markets will see a week of very important data and an address on the financial crises and the economy from the Fed and US Treasury. The major events of the week will be the publication of the June non-farm payrolls report on Thursday. Wednesday will see an address on the economy by US Treasury Secretary Paulson and a talk on the current global financial disruption by FOMC Gov. Mishkin.


Monday will see the release of the Chicago PMI and total vehicle sales for June. The June estimate of the ISM will be published the following day, with factor orders and the ADP employment estimate the primary data released on Wednesday. The week will conclude with the aforementioned June non-farm payrolls data, the ISM non-manufacturing survey and the weekly jobless claims series.

Fed Talk

The week of June 30-July 4 will see a truncated week of Fed talk. July 1 will see Atlanta Fed President Lockart speak on the economic outlook and financial turmoil. The following day US Treasury Secretary Paulson will speak on the markets and the economy. FOMC Gov. Mishkin will speak on “The Global Financial Disruption and the World Economy” at a conference in Israel. Time TBA.

Chart of The Week

Chicago PMI (June) Monday 09:45 AM

The general headline business barometer should see a decline to 47.0 for the month of June on the back of a weak month of new orders and a sharp rise in the cost of production. We have for some time thought that the manufacturing industry would experience a very rough month of June. Our below market forecast is specifically predicated on the weak response in motor vehicle assemblies post settlement of the American Axel strike. Given the very real problems in the auto industry we think that the published production schedules out of Detroit will prove to have been overoptimistic in retrospect and provide a continuing deadweight on economic activity in the upper Midwest for some time to come.

Total Vehicle Sales (June) Monday Afternoon

When one takes a look at the carnage in the auto industry due to the steep climb in the price of gasoline the idea that the rebate checks afforded consumers by the Federal government will provide a net boos to domestic auto sales looks quite suspect. Year to date, the sale of light duty truck and SUV's which have been the bread and butter of Detroit for the past decade, are down -15.7% and -25.3% respectively. Total sales for cars are flat year over year and we do not see any material improvement for the month. Our forecast implies domestic sales will fall to 10.4mln units and the total vehicle sales to 14.1mln for the month of June.

ISM Manufacturing (June) Tuesday 10:00 AM

The sharp increase in the cost of production should take a healthy bite out of industrial activity in June. Our forecast implies a decline in the headline manufacturing index to 48.0 for the month, which would be the fifth consecutive reading indicating contraction in the industrial sector. The primary culprit for the decline, in addition to the aforementioned rise in prices paid, should be the seventh consecutive reading indicating contraction in the new orders component, with a healthy risk to the downside emanating from the continued retrenchment in the domestic auto industry. The combined impact of rising costs and diminished demand from domestic sources should be expected to push the production component back into terrain indicating contraction and provide the foundation for a very pessimistic report to end the second quarter of 2008.

ADP Employment Change (June-25) Wednesday 08:15 AM

We expect that the ADP forecast will catch up with the reality of continuing retrenchment in the labor sector and report a net subtraction of -20k in payrolls for the month of June. After a few months of overshooting the mark, the gents at Macroeconomic Advisers who provide the estimate, should make the adjustments in the model necessary to account for the modest amount of bloodletting that continues to define an economy basically moving sideways.

Factory Orders (May) Wednesday 10: 00 AM

Another flat month of orders for durables signals that factor orders should see a equally dreary outcome. Although, the shipments category can be expected to advance slightly, other than a decent month of orders for civilian aircraft and a pickup in activity at the Department of Defense, there is little to write home about in the manufacturing sector.

Jobless Claims (Week Ending 28 June) Thursday 08:30 AM

Jobless claims have advanced quietly to 384K and we expect to see a slight retrenchment to 380K in the series. More importantly, has been the upward movement in the continuing claims series that feeds into the estimate of unemployment within the non-farm payroll series. Standing at 3.139 million, this does support our longer-term call of the rate of unemployment to move to 6.0% in early 2009.

Non-Farm Payrolls (June) Thursday 08:30 AM

The employment situation in June should provide a fairly representative picture of the US economy. Flat with a risk to the downside. We anticipate that payrolls will decline -37K for the month on the back of continued retrenchment in total private employment with goods production and the construction industry providing fuel for further downside movement. One factor minimizing the damage for the month inside the labor sector, should be the return to the payrolls of workers in the auto industry after the settlement of the American Axel strike. This should keep losses in the manufacturing sector down to around -30K, which would be around -15k less than was the trend before the strike. If one adds that gain, to the -37k that we expect, the headline number would arrive at -52K, which is just below the three-month average of -55K for non-farm payrolls.

Just as important, will be the look at the rate of unemployment for the month. We expect that the Bureau of Labor Statistics will make the necessary seasonal adjustments to reflect the early entry on the job market of 16-24 year olds in May that was the primary catalyst for the strong move to 5.5% in May. Based on this we anticipate that the unemployment rate will fall back to 5.4%. This seasonal inspired change, does not impact our bearish outlook for the rate of unemployment to move to 5.5% in the short term and to 6.0% in early 2009.

ISM Non-Manufacturing (June) Thursday 10:00 AM

The early arrival of the rebate checks and a healthy amount of pent up demand for discretionary consumption provided the fuel for one of the few decent US macro reports in May. We expect that the composite index should remain in terrain indicting modest growth with the headline falling to 51.4. The primary risk to our forecast will be the rise in prices in June, which surely weighed heavy on consumers attempting to estimate just how much further the cost of energy and gasoline will continue to rise.

By Joseph Brusuelas
Chief Economist, VP Global Strategy of the Merk Hard Currency Fund

Bridging academic rigor and communications, Joe Brusuelas provides the Merk team with significant experience in advanced research and analysis of macro-economic factors, as well as in identifying how economic trends impact investors.  As Chief Economist and Global Strategist, he is responsible for heading Merk research and analysis and communicating the Merk Perspective to the markets.

Mr. Brusuelas holds an M.A and a B.A. in Political Science from San Diego State and is a PhD candidate at the University of Southern California, Los Angeles.

Before joining Merk, Mr. Brusuelas was the chief US Economist at IDEAglobal in New York.  Before that he spent 8 years in academia as a researcher and lecturer covering themes spanning macro- and microeconomics, money, banking and financial markets.  In addition, he has worked at Citibank/Salomon Smith Barney, First Fidelity Bank and Great Western Investment Management.

© 2008 Merk Investments® LLC
The Merk Hard Currency Fund is managed by Merk Investments, an investment advisory firm that invests with discipline and long-term focus while adapting to changing environments.
Axel Merk, president of Merk Investments, makes all investment decisions for the Merk Hard Currency Fund. Mr. Merk founded Merk Investments AG in Switzerland in 1994; in 2001, he relocated the business to the US where all investment advisory activities are conducted by Merk Investments LLC, a SEC-registered investment adviser.

Merk Investments has since pursued a macro-economic approach to investing, with substantial gold and hard currency exposure.

Merk Investments is making the Merk Hard Currency Fund available to retail investors to allow them to diversify their portfolios and, through the fund, invest in a basket of hard currencies.

Joseph Brusuelas Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules