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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Fed Set to Spook the Markets Once Again!

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Oct 26, 2015 - 05:43 PM GMT

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Stock-Markets

The charts below show that the recent rally is just fodder for the beast. Prior to the last FED meeting on September 17, I warned of an impending sell-off due to the FED's statements. The S&P 500 fell from a high of 2020 to a low of 1871 in 8 trading days or about 7.3%! The BIG question this time is "how low?" not IF.

I have two downside targets: SPX 1913/15 and SPX 1828/30. Astro-wise, early this week, we have the "George Bayer Rule" of Mercury crossing the same path the sun did during a prior eclipse. The last time we saw this, the SPX fell 236 point in 4 trading days (late August 2015). We also have Mars joining in this time with Mercury.


The 5/10 week cycle low is due in early November. The last cycle low on September 30 was just the 5 week low. We also have the 7 week low due in gold and the mining shares in early November. GDX is sporting an inverted bearish flat. The commitment of traders shows excessively long gold contracts, that prior in this bear market has proven to be an important top when gold has gone above the 200 day moving average.

SPY Daily Chart


SPY Hourly Chart

GDX Weekly

The next important top should occur around Thanksgiving right before the next nesting of lows: the 5 and 7 week (and tax selling) low of around Dec 8. From early December to late December/early January should be quite bullish, but watch out, there is another low, the 20 week and 40 month Kitchin cycle low due in January 2016. How that forms, (I believe) will have a lot to do with the how far down the early November drop goes.

Meanwhile, Fed-speak this time around could be hinting at a rate increase within the next few months, something the recent rally participants may find less palatable than they had been thinking. Trick or treat!

Brad Gudgeon
Editor of The BluStar Market Timer

www.blustarmarkettimer.info

The BluStar Market Timer was rated #1 in the world by Timer Trac in 2014, competing with over 1600 market timers. This occurred despite what the author considered a very difficult year for him. Brad Gudgeon, editor and author of the BluStar Market Timer, is a market veteran of over 30 years. The website is www.blustarmarkettimer.info To view the details more clearly, you may visit our free chart look at www.blustarcharts.weebly.com Copyright 2015. All Rights Reserved

Copyright 2015, BluStar Market Timer.  All rights reserved.

Disclaimer:  The above information is not intended as investment advice.  Market timers can and do make mistakes.  The above analysis is believed to be reliable, but we cannot be responsible for losses should they occur as a result of using this information.  This article is intended for educational purposes only. Past performance is never a guarantee of future performance.

Brad Gudgeon Archive

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