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Why 95% of Traders Fail

Stocks Bear Market Resolving Towards New All Time High Before End of 2015

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Nov 04, 2015 - 05:07 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

Back track barely a month ago and the overwhelming consensus view FOLLOWING the August plunge into September was firmly become fixated on the expectations that after 6 years of a raging stocks bull market (that most had missed hence why I coined the phrase from the start of a stocks STEALTH bull market). Nevertheless the 'End Time' was apparently (again) NOW as apocalyptic doom and gloom once more prevailed following, and this not just voiced by the usual suspects i.e. the crash is always coming perma bear crowd, but even included those who may have been mostly bullish with statements such as there was now a 99.7% probability that stocks were in a bear market.


moneymorning.com Is This a Bear Market?

It actually indicates there's a 99.7% chance we're already in a bear market.

Again it's important to realise that the prevailing bearishness goes well beyond the usual suspects, counting even the usually bullish amongst their number that apparently still persists to this day.

So exactly how has this 99.7% probability stocks bear market been progressing over the past couple of months? Well the Dow's latest close of 17,915 is both at its highest for over 3 months, and now positive for the year, recouping all of the plunge that took the Dow down to its August 24th low of 15,370 and now stands less than 2.5% away from its all time high of 18,351.

So reality is not quite matching the mass of bearish rhetoric, as the stocks bull market appears to aborting another premature bear market.

Stock Market Trend Forecast Into End Dec 2015

My update of Mid September on the state of the over 6 year long stocks bull market series concluded in a detailed trend forecast for the Dow to briefly rally into Mid September before continuing its correction into October before setting the scene for the Dow to rally by 20% to over 18000 before the end of this year.

13 Sep 2015 - Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast for September to December 2015

My final conclusion is for continuing weakness that will result in a volatile trading range with a probable re-test of the recent low of 15,370 by Mid October that will set the scene for a strong rally into the end of the year that could see the Dow trade above 18,000 before targeting a gain for a seventh year in a row at above 17,823 as illustrated below:

The latest close of 17,915 already puts the Dow positive for the year on 17,83 and within touching distance of my year end target range of 18,000 to 18,100. Therefore the stock market clearly is clearly showing relative strength which implies my bullish forecast objective looks set to be achieved significantly earlier than expected which means that the Dow looks set to make a new all time high before the end of this year i.e. to trade above 18,351. Furthermore, I have had a good idea the picture that the perma-bears would be painting as they continue to scramble after what they see as an implausible rising stock market, that of persistent expectations for the bear market 'head and shoulders' price pattern to morph into one of a 'double top', so again will blindly cling onto the bear market is coming mantra all the way to a series of new all time highs, just as they have during every correction of the past 6 years!

Stocks Bull Market 2016 and Beyond

While it is too early for my in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecast for the Dow for 2016, however a brief reminder of long standing view illustrates that nothing so far has transpired that implies that 2016 will not ALSO turn out to be another bullish year for stocks for the 7th consecutive year!

"Look it's simple, very simple, stocks are NOT in a bubble, until stocks reach the bubble stage then they are unlikely to resolve into a bear market, having traded stocks for over 30 years, I KNOW what a bubble looks like! In fact the bubble top may turn out to be another 4 or 5 years away! Imagine that a bull market that continues for another 4 or 5 years! IMAGINE IT, now imagine the perma bear nonsense that is going to flow as stocks relentlessly climb ever higher, do you really want to miss another 4-5 year bull run?"

Let alone the probability that stocks could continue marching higher for several more years as I alluded to in my Feb 2013 Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond ebook (FREE DOWNLOAD).

"If you have actually read the whole of this analysis (rather than just skipping to the conclusion) then the message you will get is one of an ongoing stocks bull market that like a coiled spring is prepping itself to propel the stock market to levels that cannot be imagined today I.e. my Elliott Wave and broadening top analysis gives strong indications for longer-term expectations. For instance, I can easily see the Dow trade at 20,000 during 2017, so expect plenty more Stocks Stealth Bull Market ebook's to follow."

And now over 2.5 years on from the then Dow 13,992 level, Dow 20,000 during 2017 appears very probably, so what then for the perma-bear crowd for the whole of 2016 and into 2017?

I understand very well the songs they will sing, In fact I could play the lyrics now -

Beware the Hindenburg Omen, is here, there, everywhere!

The death cross stalks this stocks bull market at every turn.

Yelling at Yellen Wont' Save you from the imminent stock market Crash.

The Domed House of this Doomed Stock Market!

And finally remember "greater the deviation from the bull market peak then the greater the buying opportunity presented".

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for ongoing in-depth analysis and concluding detailed trend forecasts that include the following planned newsletters -

  • US Dollar Trend Forecast Update 2015
  • US House Prices Forecast
  • Stock Market 2016
  • Islam 3.0

Also subscribe to our Youtube channel for notification of video releases and for our new series on the 'The Illusion of Democracy and Freedom', that seeks to answer questions such as 'Did God Create the Universe?' and how to 'Attain Freedom' as well as a stream of mega long term 'Future Trend Forecasts'.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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