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The Power of the Wave Principle

Will Turkey Drag NATO into War With Russia in Syria?

Politics / Syria Nov 25, 2015 - 07:15 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat


Turkey finally laid down the gauntlet for Czar Putin in his Syrian military campaign to support fellow dictator Assad. What is becoming apparent that the schedule for the route of the Russian daily bombing raids on North West Syria were well known to the Turkish military who laid in wait, primed for their 17 second window of opportunity when Russian war planes were expected to cross a sliver of contested land and so had their F16's cruising at the tip of Turkish airspace, firing their sidewinder missile at the most opportune moment which then traveled for some distance as it played catch up to eventually hit the Russian plane that by then was back well within Syrian airspace.

All of which was conveniently filmed by a myriad of camera crews on the ground that caught every aspect of the event hollywood style.

Both Russian pilots successfully ejected but were then machine gunned as they parachuted to the ground by the Turkomen of Northern Syria in a region that Turkey hopes to some day annex from Syria much as Israel stole the Golan Heights from Syria many decades ago.

To make matters worse, Turkomen armed with US anti-tank missiles were soon able to bring fire down on the Russian search and rescue helicopters as they sought to locate the surviving Russian pilot, successfully blowing one up and further killing at least 1 Russian.

Nevertheless Turkey gave Russia a bloody nose, not because of incursion into Turkish Airspace but for the campaign Russia is fighting against its own Turkish insurgency in North West Syria. That and the fact that whilst the focus for Russia is on protecting the Assad dictatorship, and the West in defeating ISIS, meanwhile the Turkish regional super power is at war against the Kurdish armies who themselves are attempting to carve out a greater Kurdistan out of Syria.

All of which suggests that Syria is being ripped apart by the neighbouring states as they seek to create 'buffer zones', much as Israel created the golan heights buffer zone out of Syrian territory and so Turkey is attempting create its own permanent buffer zone that it will soon militarise whilst at the same time attempting to subdue the Kurdish armies as they wage their own western backed terror campaign across North East Syria. That I am sure will one day become the West's New bogeyman to attack as the Kurds attempt to carve out a state out of Iraq, Syria and of course the NATO member Turkey.

Turkey is clearly playing a game here as the regional super power that has the trump card of NATO membership that helps protect it against retaliation from the likes of Russia, which in this instant is to send a message to Russia to quit bombing the Turkoman insurgency of North West Syria.

With so many conflicting objectives then there is a great risk of a ms-calculation such as the shooting down of the Russian jet that results in a chain reaction of events that leads to an escalation of the conflict as Turkey a NATO member is able to call upon the whole of Europe to come to its defence should Russia retaliate against Turkish territory.

And it is into this quagmire that David Cameron so desperate to please the United States by wishing to commit Britain's meager military forces to the civil war, though on a far smaller scale than that of Tony Blair who led Britain into George Bush's war on Iraq all to please Daddy Bush, the resulting chaos and bloodshed of which sowed the seeds for today's Syrian civil war, as Al-Qeeda in Iraq morphed into ISIL and then today's Islamic State, all of which have George Bush and Tony Blair to thank as the enabler's for their death cults.

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By Nadeem Walayat

Copyright © 2005-2015 (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

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Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction.

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