Fed Message.....Global Economy Stinks!!!!...

By: Jack_Steiman

Fed Yellen made herself known to the world today by saying that she would keep the rates at 0.25 percent, for now, because she wanted to watch how things go globally on the economic front. That's what she said. What she didn't say, but clearly implied, was that the global economic situation is worsening far worse than I had envisioned. I blew it big time, and I don't know what to do. Someone help me as we're toast. She might raise 4 times, but it'll take many, many years for that to happen. She wanted to please the markets a month ago, so she raised a quarter, and said she'll keep raising in the hope the global situation would correct itself. It didn't! It worsened and worsened hard. She's stuck, and she knows it, and doesn't have a clue as to how to right her wrongs. Wrongs she continued after Bernanke blew it, and Greenspan blew it before them. No one worse than Greenspan.

Yellen told everyone things stink, and, thus, after opening and immediate going to the downside, reversing to solid gains, it reversed again after the Fed announcement, and made lower lows. It did hold the last vestige of hope at S&P 500 1869, or the gap up still in place, so that's the number we need to watch closely because once that's lost the market is in short-term trouble, oversold or not. When your Fed Governor tells you things are bad, you listen. When she leaves the Disneyland dream behind you should take notice. She told everyone there is no more Disneyland available for us any longer. Don't worry folks, it'll return some day, and sooner than you think, but, for now, it's on an extended vacation. The Fed blinked today. The market didn't like it. No death sentence yet as 1869 held, but you can't like the message sent from the almighty leader of our 401K's. She blinked and blinked hard. Not good!

What's really interesting is that intraday we took out the recent high in the bull flag off the bottom at 1909. All systems go in a normal market environment. This is not a normal environment, but it was surprising to see that break above fail with such ease. Without even the slightest bit of a fight from the tiring bulls. You have to wonder what the average, always-bullish person is now thinking about the market, and if maybe they'll soon stop chasing moves down, and, thus, stop the process of buying weakness for which they've become so accustomed. How many failures are they willing to take, I wonder.

If they stop chasing, then the job gets that much easier for the bears in terms of taking the market down without a fight. Stock after stock fails miserably on back tests of those lost 20-day exponential moving averages, and since those 20's are now the lowest average due to moving average bearish crosses, the bears are having their way with things. The 50's are above the 20's and the 200's are above the 50's, and that's never good for the bullish case. Stock after stock is getting hammered once they back test. The list literally hundreds long. Probably thousands. Today was a real failure for the bulls even though they held the 1869 gap. Things looked promising. They didn't end that way.

The biggest problem other than the Fed facing this market is the continued poor action coming from the world of earnings. There are always some good ones out there, and some are being graced some mercy due to their falling so much ahead of their reports but overall the news out of earnings land is bad. Apple Inc. (AAPL) and The Boeing Company (BA), two giant market leaders, were just crushed today on their weakening reports. So much bad news coming from these leaders, and not just from their reports on the last quarter, but, more importantly, on the guidance going forward. Looking out ahead to the next quarter or the entire year is not very promising. Some amazing lowering of guidance. They don't like what they see at all. If you're high beta and/or a high P/E stock, it's look out below if you don't completely blow out the numbers and guide upward.

I never want to hold a stock in to earnings, even in a bull market let alone this type of market. The risk is so amazingly high now. Why put yourself through that type of risk? Makes little to no sense to me whatsoever. Now, more than ever, you need to be smart and appropriate. You need to stay ahead of the game by not taking on any unnecessary and needless risk. Be smart and wait for this all to pass in time and it will. For now, we watch 1869 and see if the bulls can hold the line. A huge night of earnings is ahead of us so the focus will be there for the bulls and bears alike. Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN), QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM), Facebook, Inc. (FB), and eBay Inc. (EBAY) head the lineup, but there are many others from Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) to Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX). A very interesting night ahead. Be careful folks. The road is a dangerous one for now.

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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