Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Are UK Savings Interest Rates Finally Starting to Rise? Best Cash ISA 2017 - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Inflation Tsunami - Supermarkets, Retail Sector Crisis 2017, EU Suicide and Burning Stocks - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Big Moves in the World Stock Markets - Big Bases - Rambus_Chartology
4.The Next Financial Implosion Is Not Going To Be About The Banks! - Gordon_T_Long
5.Why EU BrExit Single Market Access Hard line is European Union Committing Suicide - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Trump Ramps Up US Military Debt Spending In Preparations for China War - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Watch What Happens When Silver Price Hits $26...  - MoneyMetals
8.Stock Market Fake Risk, Fake Return? Market Crash? - 2nd Mar 17 - Axel_Merk
9.Global Inflation Surges, Central Banks Losing Control and Triggered the Wage Price Spiral? - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Why Gold Will Boom In 2017 - James Burgess
Last 7 days
What are the Biggest Gambling Markets in the World? - 30th Mar 17
Stock Market Mixed Expectations As Technology Stocks Reach New Record Highs - 30th Mar 17
Bitcoin Price Rises Higher Than Gold… But Its Value Is a Different Story - 30th Mar 17
Critical Fibonacci Extensions May Mark End Of Trump Stock Market Rally - 29th Mar 17
Ending Syria’s Nightmare will Take Pressure From Below - 29th Mar 17
Charts That Reveal US Real Employment Status and It’s Not Good - 29th Mar 17
SNP Controlled Scottish Parliament Demands Right for Scotland to Commit Suicide - Indyref2 - 29th Mar 17
USD Gold Myriad of Signs - 28th Mar 17
Ominous Social Trends That Will Shape Our Future - 28th Mar 17
Foundation And Empire: Is Donald Trump The Mule? - 28th Mar 17
Top Ten US Dollar Risks - 27th Mar 17
The Popularity of Gambling and Investing Amongst Students - 27th Mar 17
Is Political Betting on the Rise? - 27th Mar 17
US Stock Market Consolidation Time - 27th Mar 17
Russia Crisis - Maps That Signal Growing Instability and Unrest - 27th Mar 17
Goldman Sachs Backing A Copper Boom In 2017 - 27th Mar 17
Foundation – Fall Of The American Galactic Empire - 27th Mar 17
Stock Market More Correction Ahead - 27th Mar 17
US Dollar Inflection Point - 27th Mar 17
Political Week Presurres US Stock Market - 25th Mar 17
London Terror Attack Red Herring, Real Issue is Age of Reason vs Religion - 25th Mar 17
Will Washington Risk WW3 to Block an Emerging EU-Russia Superstate - 25th Mar 17
Unaccountable Military Industrial Complex Is Destroying America and the Rest Of The World Too - 25th Mar 17
Silver Mining Stock Fundamentals - 24th Mar 17
A Walk Down the Dark Road of Bad Government - 24th Mar 17
Is Stock Market Flash Crash Postponed Until Monday? - 24th Mar 17
Stock Market Bubble and Gold - 24th Mar 17
Maps Of Past Empires That Can Tell Us About The Future - 24th Mar 17
SNP Independent Scotland's Destiny With Economic Catastrophe, the English Subsidy - IndyRef2 - 24th Mar 17
Stock Market VIX Cycles Set To Explode March/April 2017 – Part II - 23rd Mar 17
Is Now a Good Time to Invest in the US Housing Market? - 23rd Mar 17
The Stock Market Is a Present-Day Version of Pavlov’s Dog - 23rd Mar 17
US Budget - There’s Almost Nothing Left To Cut - 23rd Mar 17
Stock Market Upward Reversal Or Just Quick Rebound Before Another Leg Down? - 23rd Mar 17
Trends to Look Out For as a Modern-day Landlord - 23rd Mar 17
Here’s Why Interstate Health Insurance Won’t Fix Obamacare / Trumpcare - 23rd Mar 17
China’s Biggest Limitations Determine the Future of East Asia - 23rd Mar 17
This is About So Much More Than Trump and Brexit - 23rd Mar 17
Trump Stock Market Rally Over? 20% Bear Drop By Mid Summer? - 22nd Mar 17
Trump Added $3 Trillion in Wealth to Stock Market Participants - 22nd Mar 17
What's Next for the US Dollar, Gold and Stocks? - 22nd Mar 17
MSM Bond Market Full Nonsense Mode as ‘Trump Trades’ Unwind on Schedule - 22nd Mar 17
Peak Gold – Biggest Gold Story Not Being Reported - 22nd Mar 17
Return of Sovereign France, Europe’s Changing Landscape - 22nd Mar 17
Trump Stocks Bull Market Rolling Over? You Were Warned! - 22nd Mar 17
Stock Market Charts That Scream “This Is It” - Here’s What to Do - 22nd Mar 17
Raising the Minimum Wage Is a Jobs Killing Move - 22nd Mar 17
Potential Bottoming Patterns in Gold and Silver Precious Metals Stocks Complex... - 22nd Mar 17
UK Stagflation, Soaring Inflation CPI 2.3%, RPI 3.2%, Real 4.4% - 21st Mar 17
The Demise of the Gold and Silver Bull Run is Greatly Exaggerated - 21st Mar 17
USD Decline Continues, Pull SPX Down as well? - 21st Mar 17
Trump Watershed Budget - 21st Mar 17
How do Client Acquisition Offers Affect Businesses? - 21st Mar 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Elliott Wave Trading

Gold New Bull Market on Track

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016 Feb 13, 2016 - 10:55 AM GMT

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Commodities

Last week we focused on the gold stocks. There was more initial evidence of a new bull market there than in Gold. However, Thursday Gold erased some doubts as it rocketed above $1200/oz and to as high as $1264/oz before settling a bit lower. That move puts Gold's recovery on par with those following past major lows and offers greater confirmation that a new bull market is underway.


The chart below plots the recoveries from 1976 and 2008 and puts them on the same scale as the current rebound. Note how those recoveries surged well above $1200/oz within three months. Moreover, note how $1200/oz served as a pivot point for those two recoveries within two months before pushing much higher. Gold does not have to zoom to $1400/oz in the next few months to validate the new bull market. It's more important that it holds above $1200/oz in the weeks ahead.

Gold Recovery Analog

In addition to $1200/oz, $1180/oz is also a very important level. It has marked resistance and support numerous times in recent years as well as during 2009 to 2010. A monthly close above $1180/oz, which also surrounds the 20-month moving average is another sign that the bear market in Gold is over. February is only half over but Gold appears poised to close above $1180/oz.

Gold Monthly Chart

Meanwhile, Gold continues to show impressive relative strength against foreign currencies and equities in particular. Gold against foreign currencies is at a 10-month high and could soon test a 3-year high. (We should also note Gold relative to emerging market currencies is at a 34 month). Gold against the NYSE hit more than a 2-year high this week. Note how these ratios have surged well above their 400-day moving averages which will now be support. This relative strength reflects that this move in Gold extends far beyond US$ weakness.

Gold versus NYSE

Unless Gold somehow loses its gains and closes February below $1180/oz then there is no reason to doubt a major trend change and new bull market. Gold is very strong in real terms and has been for weeks. Gold's recovery is now on par with past recoveries and the metal has taken out key resistance at $1180/oz. Last week we concluded: While we have some concerns on the metals we should note that the miners lead at major turning points. The miners are telling us something has changed. There will be pullbacks and periods of consolidation but the forever bear market is over.

Consider learning more about our premium service including our favorite junior miners which we expect to outperform in 2016.

Good Luck!

Email: Jordan@TheDailyGold.com
Service Link: http://thedailygold.com/premium

Bio: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT  is a Chartered Market Technician, a member of the Market Technicians Association and from 2010-2014 an official contributor to the CME Group, the largest futures exchange in the world. He is the publisher and editor of TheDailyGold Premium, a publication which emphaszies market timing and stock selection for the sophisticated investor.  Jordan's work has been featured in CNBC, Barrons, Financial Times Alphaville, and his editorials are regularly published in 321gold, Gold-Eagle, FinancialSense, GoldSeek, Kitco and Yahoo Finance. He is quoted regularly in Barrons. Jordan was a speaker at PDAC 2012, the largest mining conference in the world.

Jordan Roy-Byrne Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife