Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.The Brexit War! EU Fearing Collapse Set to Stoke Scottish Independence Proxy War - Nadeem_Walayat
2.London Terror Attack Red Herring, Real Issue is Age of Reason vs Religion - Nadeem_Walayat
3.The BrExit War, Game Theory Strategy for What UK Should Do to Win - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Goldman Sachs Backing A Copper Boom In 2017 - OilPrice_Com
5.Trump to Fire 50 US Cruise Missiles To Erase Syrian Chemical Attack Air Base, China Next? - Nadeem_Walayat
6.US Stock Market Consolidation Time - Rambus_Chartology
7.Stock Market Investors Stupid is as Stupid Goes - James_Quinn
8.Gold in Fed Interest Rate Hike Cycles- Zeal_LLC
9.The BrExit War - Britain Intelligence Super Power Covert War With the EU - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Marc Faber: Euro to Strengthen, Dollar to Weaken, Gold and Emerging Markets to Outperform - MoneyMetals
Last 7 days
Financial Markets Improvised Explosives - 27th Apr 17
More Stock Market Short-Term Uncertainty As Stocks Get Close To Record High - 27th Apr 17
Elliott Wave Theory: Is Elliott’s Theory Enough? - 27th Apr 17
Billionaire Investor Paul Tudor Jones Says Stock Market Valuation Is “Terrifying” And He Is Right - 26th Apr 17
The Great BrExit Divides - Britain, USA and France - 26th Apr 17
10 Facts That Show Our Taxes Are Worse Than You Thought - 26th Apr 17
What Trump’s Next 100 Days Will Look Like - 26th Apr 17
G20: SURPASSING THE 2nd GLOBAL STEEL CRISIS - 26th Apr 17
What A War With North Korea Would Look Like - 25th Apr 17
Pensions Are On The Way Out But Retirement Funds Are Not Working Either - 25th Apr 17
Frank Holmes : Gold Could Hit $1,500 in 2017 Amid Imbalances & Weak Supply - 25th Apr 17
3 Reasons Why “Spring Forward, Fall Back” Also Applies To Gold - 25th Apr 17
SPX may be Aiming at the Cycle Top Resistance - 25th Apr 17
Walmart Stock Extending Higher - Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 25th Apr 17
Google Panics and KILLS YouTube to Appease Mainstream Media and Corporate Advertisers - 25th Apr 17
Gold Price Is 1% Shy of Ripping Higher - 25th Apr 17
Exchange-Traded Funds Make Decisions Easy - 25th Apr 17
Trump Is Among The Institutionally Weakest National Leaders In The World - 25th Apr 17
3 Maps That Explain the Geopolitics of Nuclear Weapons - 25th Apr 17
Risk on Stock Market French Election Euphoria - 24th Apr 17
Fear Campaign Against Americans Continues Nuclear Attack Drills in New York City - 24th Apr 17
Is the Stock Market Bounce Over? - 24th Apr 17
This Could Be One Of the Biggest Winners Of The Electric Car Boom - 24th Apr 17
Le Pen Shifts Political Landscape- The Rise of New French Gaullism  - 24th Apr 17
IMF Says Austerity Is Over - Surplus or Stimulus - 24th Apr 17
EURUSD at a Critical Point in Wave Structure - 23rd Apr 17
Stock Market Grand Super Cycle Overview While SPX Correction Continues - 23rd Apr 17
Robert Prechter Talks About Elliott Waves and His New Book - 23rd Apr 17
Le Pen, Melenchon French Election Stock, Bond and Euro Markets Crash - 22nd Apr 17
Why You Are Not An Investor - 22nd Apr 17
Gold Price Upleg Momentum Building - 22nd Apr 17
Why Now Gold and Silver Precious Metals? - 22nd Apr 17
4 Maps That Signal Central Asia Is at Risk of War - 22nd Apr 17
5 Key Steps For A Comfortable Retirement From Former Wall Street Trader - 22nd Apr 17
Can Marine Le Pen Win? French Presidential Election Forecast 2017 - 21st Apr 17
Why Stock Market Investors May Soon Be In For A Rude Awakening - 21st Apr 17
Median US Household’s Wealth Has Declined by 40% Since 2007 - 21st Apr 17
Silver, Platinum and Palladium as Investments – Research Shows Diversification Benefit - 21st Apr 17
U.S. Stock Market and Gold, Post Tomahawks and MOAB - 21st Apr 17
An In Depth Look at the Precious Metals Complex - 20th Apr 17
The Real Story of China’s Strong First-Quarter Growth - 20th Apr 17
3 Types Of Life-Changing Crisis That Make You Wish You Had Some Gold - 20th Apr 17
The Truth is a Dangerous Thing - 20th Apr 17
2 Choke Points That Threaten Oil Trade Between Persian Gulf And East Asia - 20th Apr 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

Crude Oil Price Bottom, Forecast to Double Before End of 2016

Commodities / Crude Oil Feb 22, 2016 - 06:23 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Commodities

The crude oil price last close of $32 stands $6 higher than its recent multi-year bear market low of $26. Whilst little has changed fundamentally so far in terms of supply i.e. OPEC and others are still pumping flat out and Iran continues to ramp up production, nevertheless demand destruction of many smaller oil producers operating at below break even prices is finally starting to be discounted by the market.


However, from a technical perspective there is little sign on the price chart in terms of a higher high or bottom to confirm that the oil price has actually bottomed. The only thing of significance so far is the fact that the MACD has clearly turned higher signaling that multi-month up trend is probable.

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016

it is now over 1 month since I published my forecast expectations for the crude oil price to bottom early February 2016 at approx $25, the actual bottom came in at $26 and within the time window for a final bear market bottom as excerpted below. Therefore with the crude oil price showing little deviation from the trend forecast thu far then this implies that the crude oil price should now target a DOUBLING off of its low price of $26 and therefore trend towards at least $52 before the end of this year.

17 Jan 2016 - Crude Oil Price Crash Triggering Global Instability, Trend Forecast 2016

Crude Oil Price 2016 Forecast Conclusion

My forecast conclusion is for the crude oil price to trade within three distinct trading ranges for 2016 of $20 to $40, $35 to $50 and $62 to $40. Furthermore the trend pattern imposed onto the trading ranges implies that a bottom is likely by early February 2016 at around $25, followed by a trend higher into Mid year towards $50, a correction into September, followed by a trend towards $62 before succumbing to a correction during December to target an end year price of approx $48 as illustrated by the following forecast graph.

The bottom line is that the current the oil price collapse is a wake up call to all major oil producers that crude oil as an energy source is running out of time. So whilst there may be future oil price spikes, however the long-term trend, given the likes of climate change is for the oil age to go the way of previous ages such as the Stone Age and Bronze age and so it will be for the oil age. Which means nations such as Saudi Arabia, regardless of price understand they need to get as much of their oil out of the ground as possible and sold off before they run out of customers!

See the original article for my view on oil stocks, i.e. whether now is a good time or not to invest. And ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter (only requirement is an email address) for future updates and the following forthcoming pieces of in-depth analysis

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter (only requirement is an email address) for the following forthcoming analysis -

  • US Interest Rates 2016
  • US Dollar Trend Forecast
  • Stock Market Trend Forecast 2016
  • US House Prices Forecast 2016 and Beyond
  • Gold and Silver Price Forecast 2016

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife