SPX Breaks its First SupportStock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Mar 03, 2016 - 05:04 PM GMT
SPX just broke its 2-hour Cycle Top at 1980.09, suggesting an end to this swing rally. It is now in a retracement back above that support. When it is broken a second time this may be a good aggressive short entry for any dry powder at hand. Confirmation may not come until SPX declines beneath its 50-day Moving Average at 1937.03. However, the decline has the potential to be massive, so take your best shot.
ZeroHedge reports, “In 60 years, the US economy has not suffered a 15-month continuous YoY drop in Factory orders without being in recession. Today's -1.9% YoY drop may suggest the slide is decelerating, but off the weakness in December (-2.9% MoM), January's bounce +1.6% MoM missed expectations (+2.1%) notably (and Ex-Trans decline MoM).”
And again, “From the narrative-destroying 49.8 preliminary print for US Services PMI (the lowest since the government shutdown in 2013), today's final February Services PMI printed an even worse 49.7 (below 50.0 expectations) even as stocks have soared in the last 2 weeks. Business confidence tumbles to its lowest since Aug 2010 (record lows). This drops the composite PMI to a dismal 50.0, implying negative GDP growth in Q1. Then ISM Services printed 53.4 (down from January but a small beat) to 2 year lows, confirming the decoupling from manufacturing's demise was a fallacy (merely a lagged response) as the last leg of the economic recovery's stool gets kicked away.”
USD fell beneath support this morning to a low of 97.73, beneath both the 50-day Moving Average at 98.13 and Intermediate-term support at 97.91. The reversal is on schedule and ready for action. This is having an effect on USD/JPY and the Yen carry trade, which supported equities until now.
The Cycles are falling into place as indicated in the Model.
Gold futures are at the breakout point at 1259.70 this morning. A continued rally may take gold to a potential average target of 1335.00 in the next week or so. However, gold may not stay inversely linked to the USD. It also may join the decline in stocks, especially should a panic arise and liquidity becomes scarce.
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