Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.The Trump Reset, US Empire's Coming Economic, Cyber and Military War With China (2/2) - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Now Is the Time to Buy Gold - 5th Jan 17 - John Grandits
3.CIA Planning Rogue President Donald Trump Assassination? Elites "Manchurian Candidate" Plan B - Nadeem_Walayat
4.The Trump Reset - Regime Change, Russia the Over Hyped Fake News SuperPower (Part1) - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2016 - Stock Market Crash Postponed Again - Nadeem_Walayat
6.No UK House Prices Brexit Crash 2016 Despite London Weakness, Forecast 2017 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.President Trump Understands the NSA, CIA... LIE, America's Intelligence Agencies Crime Syndicate! -Nadeem_Walayat
8.President Donald Trump's 2017 New Year Message, BBC Fake News, Was 2016 a Dream? - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Major Stocks Bear Market Still Looms - Zeal_LLC
10.Biased 2017 Forecasts - Debt, Housing and Stock Market (1/2) - James_Quinn
Last 7 days
US Stock Market Update as the Trump Inauguration Approaches - 17th Jan 17
The American Crisis - Common Sense 2017 - 17th Jan 17
Obama Leaves, Hope Arrives, Will Stupid Stay? - 17th Jan 17
Damage Inflicted by Precious Metals Manipulation Is in the “Multi Billions” - Keith Neumeyer - 17th Jan 17
Gold Price Forecast 2017 Update - Video - 17th Jan 17
The Story of the U.S. Regime Change Plan in the Philippines - 16th Jan 17
Gold Price 2017 Trending Towards $1375 as Forecast - 16th Jan 17
'Deep State' CIA Director States We are Not NAZI's, Warns Trump Does Not Understand Russian Threat - 15th Jan 17
UK House Prices Forecast 2017 - Crash or Bull Market? - Video - 15th Jan 17
SPX Stocks Bull Market Update - 14th Jan 17
President Trump vs the Deep State that Hides in Plain Sight - 14th Jan 17
The Impact of Sir Alex Ferguson's Retirement on Man United's Share Price - 14th Jan 17
What Can Stock Market Tell You About Politics? - 13th Jan 17
Big Gold Buying Coming 2017 - 13th Jan 17
A Bullish Case for Gold 2017 - 13th Jan 17
Will Stocks Bull Market Continue to Charge or is it Time to Sell the News - 13th Jan 17
Gold and Silver Off To Shining Start to 2017 - 13th Jan 17
Gold’s Fundamental Outlook for 2017 - 13th Jan 17
Is trading stocks and shares just as luck-based as roulette? - 13th Jan 17
Trump CIA Like Nazi Germany - Fake MI6 Intelligence leaked to Fake News Mainstream Media - 13th Jan 17
USD in Decline. SPX and TNX May Follow - 12th Jan 17
CIA War On Trump - Leaks Fake MI6 Intelligence to Fake News Broadcast Media - 12th Jan 17
Registered Address.co.uk London Business Registered Office Address Mail Forwarding Review - 11th Jan 17
13 Contrarian Economic Predictions For 2017 - 11th Jan 17
10 Potential Black Swans and Opportunities for the US Economy in 2017 - 11th Jan 17
How to Get a Bird of Paradise Plant to Flower - UK Growing Video - 11th Jan 17
The No.1 Energy Stock To Buy Right Now - 10th Jan 17

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

What Can Stock Market Tell You About Politics?

Stock Market SPX Bounce

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Mar 09, 2016 - 02:38 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

The impulsive decline in SPX appears to be in need of a correction this morning. Currently the Premarket is higher, but beneath the 38.2% retracement level at 1989.54. We may see a further probe higher after the open to either the 50% retracement level at 1993.28 or the 61.8% retracement level at 1997.02. The retracement may go back to touch the lower trendline of the Bearish Pennant near 2001.00 – 2002.00, but that would be the extreme.


ZeroHedge remarks, “After yesterday's last hour selloff sent the S&P to the very edge of the critical support trendline which, as shown yesterday, meant 1980 had to be defended at all costs...

... so far the support has held, and in overnight trading European stocks have managed to rebound on the back of more levitation in oil, while US equity futures have ignored a drop in the USDJPY which touched 112.20 in morning trading, and have jumped by 0.5% as of this moment, up 10 points to 1,990.”

I agree that crossing 1980 may be a good confirmation of the change in trend and a good shorting point for those who want confirmation. At the same time, an aggressive trader may attempt to find the top to layer in a short positon.

VIX tested its daily mid-Cycle resistance at 18.93 yesterday in an impulsive wave as well. It has a pullback target of 17.00 which may give the VIX a good launch into the next wave beyond resistance. There is a likelihood of an overshoot, but I am simply attempting to give a reasonable wntry level with a minimal downside risk for those entering long the VIX or its ETFs.

TNX has made a 66.7% retracement of yesterday’s decline, but has not filled the gap. Should it attempt to do this, it would have to rally above 19.02.

Crude appears to have made an impulse off its top and may be retracing some of its decline. The high in this morning’s futures was 37.18 (near 50% retracement) and it appears to be drifting lower. There may still be a final probe higher. The 61.8% retracement level is 37.50 which may provide a good entry level for shorts. Today is the Primary Pivot for crude, which means the period of strength may be over.

The inverse relationship between the USD and WTIC may be broken this week.

USD closed above mid-Cycle support at 97.17 yesterday, allowing it to retrace to a higher level. This morning’s high so far was 97.54. USD appears to be pulling back but may probe higher with Intermediate-term resistance at 97.70 being a possible stopping point.

Once the retracement is over, the USD target for Wave 3 is 93.93, just beneath Cycle Bottom support at 94.11. The Wave 3 low in USD appears to be near March 25-29.

Regards,

Tony

Our Investment Advisor Registration is on the Web

We are in the process of updating our website at www.thepracticalinvestor.com to have more information on our services. Log on and click on Advisor Registration to get more details.

If you are a client or wish to become one, please make an appointment to discuss our investment strategies by calling Connie or Tony at (517) 699-1554, ext 10 or 11. Or e-mail us at tpi@thepracticalinvestor.com .

Anthony M. Cherniawski, President and CIO http://www.thepracticalinvestor.com

As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife