Stock Market Trading Cycle inverts...Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Mar 15, 2016 - 03:27 PM GMT
SPX closed yesterday above both its 200-day Moving Average at 2019.41 and its mid-Cycle support/resistance at 2012.67. However, this morning’s Premarket seems to have knocked it off both perches.
Today we have an inverted Trading Cycle Pivot. I originally anticipated it to be a Cycle low, as the vast majority of Trading Cycle Pivots are. Today’s Pivot corresponds with the November 16 and January 20 lows. As a result, I had miscalled the rally, expecting it to end much sooner. It appears that the rally far exceeded many other analysts calls as well.
The outcome of all this is that the ensuing decline may now be on schedule for a Pi Cycle Pivot on March 29 (+ or- 24 hours). August 24 was a Pi Cycle Pivot day and so was January 20. The August low was 7 days prior to the regular Trading Cycle low due on September 1. The January low was 5 days later than its Trading Cycle due date on January 15. Pi Cycles have their own rhythm which often needs to be monitored, especially when they conflict with the more mundane Cycles.
Of course, the SPX rally had to square up with the USB Master Cycle low that came on Friday, March 11. It appears that the final thrust of USB to all-time highs may take place in 8.6 market days, ending on March 24, 3 days longer than the 34.4 year due date of March 21.
TNX dropped beneath the neckline of its Head & Shoulders formation this morning. This gives us our first sell signal that also affects SPX.
VIX is near yesterday’s high, but is not yet above its buy signal level at 18.93.
ZeroHedge reports, “Thanks to dramatic downward revisions (from "resilient" historical data which we pointed out were entirely anomalous at the time and due entirely to seasonal adjustments) retail sales have dropped 0.54% in the last two months - the biggest sequential drop in a year.”
Conversely, the Empire Fed surged the most since 2010 despite continued job contraction.
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