Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Risks to Global Economy is Balanced: Stock Market upside limited short term - 20th Jan 20
How Digital Technology is Changing the Sports Betting Industry - 20th Jan 20
Is CEOs Reputation Management Essential? All You Must Know - 20th Jan 20
APPLE (AAPL) AI Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 20th Jan 20
FOMO or FOPA or Au? - 20th Jan 20
Stock Market SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review - 20th Jan 20
Why Intel i7-4790k Devils Canyon CPU is STILL GOOD in 2020! - 20th Jan 20
Stock Market Final Thrust Review - 19th Jan 20
Gold Trade Usage & Price Effect - 19th Jan 20
Stock Market Trend Forecast 2020 - Trend Analysis - Video - 19th Jan 20
Stock Trade-of-the-Week: Dorchester Minerals (DMLP) - 19th Jan 20
INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Mega-trend 2020 and Beyond - 18th Jan 20
Gold Stocks Wavering - 18th Jan 20
Best Amazon iPhone Case Fits 6s, 7, 8 by Toovren Review - 18th Jan 20
1. GOOGLE (Alphabet) - Primary AI Tech Stock For Investing 2020 - 17th Jan 20
ERY Energy Bear Continues Basing Setup – Breakout Expected Near January 24th - 17th Jan 20
What Expiring Stock and Commodity Market Bubbles Look Like - 17th Jan 20
Platinum Breaks $1000 On Big Rally - What's Next Forecast - 17th Jan 20
Precious Metals Set to Keep Powering Ahead - 17th Jan 20
Stock Market and the US Presidential Election Cycle  - 16th Jan 20
Shifting Undercurrents In The US Stock Market - 16th Jan 20
America 2020 – YEAR OF LIVING DANGEROUSLY (PART TWO) - 16th Jan 20
Yes, China Is a Currency Manipulator – And the U.S. Banking System Is a Metals Manipulator - 16th Jan 20
MICROSOFT Stock Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Mega-trend 2020 and Beyond - 15th Jan 20
Silver Traders Big Trend Analysis – Part II - 15th Jan 20
Silver Short-Term Pullback Before Acceleration Higher - 15th Jan 20
Gold Overall Outlook Is 'Strongly Bullish' - 15th Jan 20
AMD is Killing Intel - Best CPU's For 2020! Ryzen 3900x, 3950x, 3960x Budget, to High End Systems - 15th Jan 20
The Importance Of Keeping Invoices Up To Date - 15th Jan 20
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis 2020 - 14th Jan 20
Walmart Has Made a Genius Move to Beat Amazon - 14th Jan 20
Deep State 2020 – A Year Of Living Dangerously! - 14th Jan 20
The End of College Is Near - 14th Jan 20
AI Stocks Investing 2020 to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Video - 14th Jan 20
Stock Market Final Thrust - 14th Jan 20
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast Review - 13th Jan 20
Trumpism Stock Market and the crisis in American social equality - 13th Jan 20
Silver Investors Big Trend Analysis for – Part I - 13th Jan 20
Craig Hemke Gold & Silver 2020 Prediction, Slams Biased Gold Naysayers - 13th Jan 20
AMAZON Stock Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Mega-trend 2020 and Beyond - 11th Jan 20
Gold Price Reacting to Global Flash Points - 11th Jan 20
Land Rover Discovery Sport 2020 - What You Need to Know Before Buying - 11th Jan 20
Gold Buying Precarious - 11th Jan 20
The Crazy Stock Market Train to Bull Eternity - 11th Jan 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Sugar Commodity Price Set For Correction 

Commodities / Agricultural Commodities Mar 27, 2016 - 06:31 PM GMT

By: Austin_Galt

Commodities

The sugar price has traded exactly as outlined in analysis titled, Sugar Technical Outlook, produced back in September 2015 and has seen price increase by just over 50%.

That analysis outlined the expectation for price to trade up to around the $16.25 level. Price just hit a high of $16.75 before reversing back down impulsively. I believe that completes the intermediate term rally.


Let’s review the technicals beginning with the weekly chart.

SUGAR WEEKLY CHART



W can see a five wave move off the low at $10.13 which I now believe to be complete.

The two horizontal lines denote previous swing highs which price has surpassed so a higher high is now in place. All that is required now is a higher low and the bull trend can really kick into gear.

The Bollinger Bands show a last gasp rally that got back up to the upper band. Price actually traded above the upper band which is a common feature found at significant tops.

I have drawn a Fibonacci Fan which shows the end of the fourth wave at support from the 76.4% angle while the recent high was at resistance from the 50% angle. I now expect a correction back to at least the 88.6% angle.

I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of this move higher and as the first correction in a new bull trend often makes a deep retracement I am looking for a move back to at least the 76.4% level at $11.69 and possibly the 88.6% level at $10.88.

Both the RSI and MACD indicator show a bearish divergence at this price high.

Now let’s update the monthly and yearly charts with the added data from the last six months.

SUGAR MONTHLY CHART



We can see the 5 point broadening top formation we have been following. This began with the point 1 high in 2010 and we now look to have the point 4 low in place as of 2015. It may take several more years before the point 5 high completes the pattern.

I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the move down from point 3 high to point 4 low and previous analysis produced six months ago outlined the expectation for this first rally to end around the 23.6% level at $16.25. Price spiked up marginally above this level to a high at $16.75 so that’s looks pretty good.

The Bollinger Bands show price is back up at the upper band however there is often some movement between the bands during trend changes and I favour a move back down to around the lower band to put in a higher low.

The RSI showed a new high recently which is bullish while the MACD indicator is trending up and looking bullish.

SUGAR YEARLY CHART



I have drawn two Fibonacci fans so let’s run through them once again.

The bearish Fibonacci Fan drawn from the 1974 high to 1985 low shows the 2015 low around support from the 76.4% angle. This is after the 2011 high was at resistance from the 88.6% angle and I now expect price to move back up to challenge and ultimately overcome this level.

The bullish Fibonacci Fan drawn from the 1985 low to 2011 high shows the 2015 low right around support from the 76.4% angle. Nice.

I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the move up from 1985 low to 2011 high and the 2015 low was bang on support from the 76.4% level. Nice again.

The Bollinger Bands show price dipping below the middle band before support came in and pushed price back up to it. I now expect a move back down In order to test how strong the support from this middle band really is. I favour it is strong and price will bounce back up immediately.

The Stochastic indicator is bearish although that is to be expected after five years of downtrend. It may take another year of price trending up before we see a bullish crossover.

Summing up, price has behaved as expected over the last six months and the expectations going forward from here are for price to make a deep correction before exploding higher.

By Austin Galt

www.thevoodooanalyst.com 

Austin Galt is The Voodoo Analyst. I have studied charts for over 20 years and am currently a private trader. Several years ago I worked as a licensed advisor with a well known Australian stock broker. While there was an abundance of fundamental analysts, there seemed to be a dearth of technical analysts. My aim here is to provide my view of technical analysis that is both intriguing and misunderstood by many. I like to refer to it as the black magic of stock market analysis.

Email - info@thevoodooanalyst.com 

My website is www.thevoodooanalyst.com 

© 2016 Copyright  The Voodoo Analyst - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Austin Galt Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules