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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Stocks Extended Their Short-Term Downtrend But Will They Continue Lower?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 May 09, 2016 - 12:28 PM GMT

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stock-Markets

Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral. Our medium-term outlook remains bearish, as the S&P 500 index extends its lower highs, lower lows sequence:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral


The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.3-0.5% on Friday, retracing some of their recent move down, as investors reacted to Monthly Nonfarm Payrolls data release, among others. However, the S&P 500 index has extended its short-term downtrend, before bouncing off support level at around 2,030-2,040. The nearest important level of resistance is at 2,060, marked by last week's consolidation. The next resistance level remains at 2,070-2,075, marked by the late April short-term consolidation. Is this the end of two-month long uptrend? Or is it just a correction before another leg up reaching last year's all-time high? Last year's highs along the level of 2,100 continue to act as medium-term resistance level, as we can see on the daily chart:

S&P500 Futures Daily Chart

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are positive, with index futures currently up 0.2-0.3%. The European stock market indexes have gained 0.5-1.9% so far. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday uptrend, as it gets closer to its level of resistance at 2,060, marked by recent local high. On the other hand, support level is at 2,030-2,040, marked by Friday's local low, among others. There have been no confirmed positive signals so far. However, we can see some short-term technical oversold conditions:

S&P500 Futures 15-Minute Chart

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract follows a similar path, as it extends its Friday's rebound off support level at around 4,270-4,300. On the other hand, the nearest important level of resistance is at 4,350-4,380, marked by some previous local highs. For now, it looks like an upward correction following recent downtrend:

NASDAQ100 Futures 15-Minute Chart

Concluding, the broad stock market extended its short-term downtrend on Friday, before bouncing off support level, marked by the early April consolidation. The S&P 500 index remains relatively close to its last year's medium-term highs along the level of 2,100. Is this just a downward correction following over two-month long rally or new medium-term downtrend? The S&P 500 index continues to trade above its late March - early April local lows. It still looks like a downward correction, so we prefer to be out of the market, avoiding low risk/reward ratio trades. We will let you know when we think it is safe to get back in the market.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Stock Trading Alerts
SunshineProfits.com

Stock market strategist, who has been known for quality of his technical and fundamental analysis since the late nineties. He is interested in forecasting market behavior based on both traditional and innovative methods of technical analysis. Paul has made his name by developing mechanical trading systems. Paul is the author of Sunshine Profits’ premium service for stock traders: Stock Trading Alerts.

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Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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