Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - 8th Apr 24
Gold Is Rallying Again, But Silver Could Get REALLY Interesting - 8th Apr 24
Media Elite Belittle Inflation Struggles of Ordinary Americans - 8th Apr 24
Profit from the Roaring AI 2020's Tech Stocks Economic Boom - 8th Apr 24
Stock Market Election Year Five Nights at Freddy's - 7th Apr 24
It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- 7th Apr 24
AI Revolution and NVDA: Why Tough Going May Be Ahead - 7th Apr 24
Hidden cost of US homeownership just saw its biggest spike in 5 years - 7th Apr 24
What Happens To Gold Price If The Fed Doesn’t Cut Rates? - 7th Apr 24
The Fed is becoming increasingly divided on interest rates - 7th Apr 24
The Evils of Paper Money Have no End - 7th Apr 24
Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - 3rd Apr 24
Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend - 2nd Apr 24
Dow Stock Market Annual Percent Change Analysis 2024 - 2nd Apr 24
Bitcoin S&P Pattern - 31st Mar 24
S&P Stock Market Correlating Seasonal Swings - 31st Mar 24
S&P SEASONAL ANALYSIS - 31st Mar 24
Here's a Dirty Little Secret: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Is Still Loose - 31st Mar 24
Tandem Chairman Paul Pester on Fintech, AI, and the Future of Banking in the UK - 31st Mar 24
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

ZAR Gold Price Signals A September 2001-Type Event In The Financial Markets

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016 May 23, 2016 - 12:45 PM GMT

By: Hubert_Moolman

Commodities

The gold price in South African Rand (ZAR) is often a leading indicator for a USD gold price rally, as well as major trouble in the financial markets. A good example of this was around August/September 2001, just before the September 2001 crash (which turned out to be a major turning point in the markets - not just for the events of September 11).


Below is a comparison of the ZAR gold chart and the USD gold chart (all charts generated at tradingview.com):

USD/ZAR:XAU/USD Chart 1

On both charts, I have drawn a resistance line (blue) from just after the important 1980 highs. The ZAR gold price managed to go higher than the resistance line by about August 2001 - just before the September 2001 events). From there, it went on a very strong rally.

The USD gold price went higher than its equivalent (or similar) line, about 8 months later, and continued to to rise. The ZAR gold price was a very good leading indicator of the market crash, as well as the USD gold rally.

The red and green line; therefore, represent important turning points for gold in ZAR and USD, respectively. Since then, both charts have gone higher at a steeper angle - see the following chart:

USD/ZAR:XAU/USD Chart 2

On both charts, I have indicated where the major turning points are, as well as drawn a new upper resistance line from the first peak after the turning point (steeper angle than the previous lines). Notice how the ZAR gold price has already passed the 2011 highs. Based on past behaviour, this almost guarantees that the USD gold price will pass its 2011 high (very soon).

Furthermore, the ZAR gold price has already touched the resistance line. If the USD gold price was today at its resistance line, it would be at $2 750. The USD gold price will move much faster over the coming months, in order to catch up with the ZAR gold price - this is consistent with a collapse of the USD Index.

Below is a ZAR gold price chart with fractals that indicate that price could move higher than the resistance line over the coming months:

USD/ZAR:XAU/USD Chart 3

On the chart, I have marked the two fractals (1 to 4). The fractals exist in similar conditions, relative to the key market points (USD silver peaks, Dow peaks and USD Index peaks) indicated. The price is very close to breaking the line, with current support at the R16 000 level.

When this happens, it signals the soon coming major pain in the financial markets, as well as the mania-phase in the gold market.

For more of this kind of analysis on silver and gold, you are welcome to subscribe to my premium service. I have also recently completed a Long-term Silver Fractal Analysis Report .

Warm regards
Hubert

“And it shall come to pass, that whosoever shall call on the name of the Lord shall be saved”

http://hubertmoolman.wordpress.com/

You can email any comments to hubert@hgmandassociates.co.za

© 2016 Copyright Hubert Moolman - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in