Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stocks Bull Market Smoking Gun - 25th May 24
Congress Moves against Totalitarian Central Bank Digital Currency Schemes - 25th May 24
Government Tinkering With Prices Is Like Hiding All of the Street Signs - 25th May 24
Gold Mid Tier Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 25th May 24
Why US Interest Rates are a Nothing Burger - 24th May 24
Big Banks Are Pressuring The Fed To Losen Protection For Depositors - 24th May 24
Another Bank Failure: How to Tell if Your Bank is At Risk - 24th May 24
AI Stocks Portfolio and Tesla - 23rd May 24
All That Glitters Isn't Gold: Silver Has Outperformed Gold During This Gold Bull Run - 23rd May 24
Gold and Silver Expose Stock Market’s Phony Gains - 23rd May 24
S&P 500 Cyclical Relative Performance: Stocks Nearing Fully Valued - 23rd May 24
Nvidia NVDA Stock Earnings Rumble After Hours - 22nd May 24
Stock Market Trend Forecasts for 2024 and 2025 - 21st May 24
Silver Price Forecast: Trumpeting the Jubilee | Sovereign Debt Defaults - 21st May 24
Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pulls 2024! - 19th May 24
Important Economic And Geopolitical Questions And Their Answers! - 19th May 24
Pakistan UN Ambassador Grows Some Balls Accuses Israel of Being Like Nazi Germany - 19th May 24
Could We See $27,000 Gold? - 19th May 24
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 19th May 24
The Gold and Silver Ship Will Set Sail! - 19th May 24
Micro Strategy Bubble Mania - 10th May 24
Biden's Bureau of Labor Statistics is Cooking Jobs Reports - 10th May 24
Bitcoin Price Swings Analysis - 9th May 24
Could Chinese Gold Be the Straw That Breaks the Dollar's Back? - 9th May 24
The Federal Reserve Is Broke! - 9th May 24
The Elliott Wave Crash Course - 9th May 24
Psychologically Prepared for Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pull Corrections 2024 - 8th May 24
Why You Should Pay Attention to This Time-Tested Stock Market Indicator Now - 8th May 24
Copper: The India Factor - 8th May 24
Gold 2008 and 2022 All Over Again? Stocks, USDX - 8th May 24
Holocaust Survivor States Israel is Like Nazi Germany, The Fourth Reich - 8th May 24
Fourth Reich Invades Rafah Concentration Camp To Kill Palestinian Children - 8th May 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Crash Death Cross Doom Prevails

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 May 23, 2016 - 06:22 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

We appear to be at one of those stock market times of the year when cognitive dissonance prevails, for one does not need to look far to see the building mood for imminent doom that apparently has been imminent all year! Nevertheless, it appears to be reaching a new fever pitch of intensity with the focus now on the apocalyptic sounding DEATH CROSS ! Which depending on the analyst has occurred from twice to more than a dozen times this century for the fundamental fact that the Death Cross just like much of Technical Analysis is just a back fitting exercise, i.e. tweak the parameters used so as to fit a pattern with the benefit of hindsight so as to support ones pre-existing opinion.


So exactly what is the death cross ?

The consensus view is that a death cross is when the 50 day moving average crosses below the 200 day moving average, though as I said earlier doom merchants tend to play around with the values i.e. 50 day vs 100 day or 25 day vs 100 day etc... Or if they can't make it fit on a daily chart then jump to weekly, fortnightly even monthly charts. And if that does not work than change the indices, from Dow, to S&P to Nasdaq before wondering off around the world looking for that stock market index that fits the pattern sought, whatever fits what has already happened and confirms the commentators perma-doom opinion.

Where are we in terms of the consensus parameters of 50 day vs 200 day?

Firstly, currently there IS NO DEATH CROSS, instead the last signal was a BUY SIGNAL

Secondly the last death cross of January 2016 was a FAIL, i.e. by the time of the cross the Dow had already fallen and bottomed literally within days, so ALL those who acted on the January death cross signal would have been wiped out by the subsequent rally.

Thirdly, the August 2015 death cross could have proved profitable IF those who acted on it exited within a couple of weeks or so. But the problem is that the highly vocal advocates of the death cross tend to see it in terms of the start of NEW BEAR MARKETs or worse rather than a short-term technical trading tool.

The bottom line is that a coin flip is a MORE reliable than the death cross. Which highlights the point I often make that each technical tool such as death cross's and elliot wave theory on their own are little more than 50/50 propositions which therefore means one should be skeptical of ones own analysis else one falls into the same trap that the death cross merchants have today, who believe they have found the holy grail but in reality are just fooling themselves, to suffer from cognitive dissonance when the stock market actually does the opposite of what they expected it to do, whilst at the same time they cling on their death crosses in perpetuity.

In terms of the prospects for the stock market and crude oil see my recent video analysis -

Stock Market - Crude Oiil Forecast

https://youtu.be/Zlax5GaiB40

And also ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter (only requirement is an email address) for forthcoming in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecasts that include the following :

  • BrExit to Save Europe from the Apocalypse
  • US Dollar Trend Forecast
  • UK Housing Market Trend Forecasts
  • US Stock Market Forecasts
  • US House Prices Detailed Multi-Year Trend Forecast
  • Gold and Silver Price Forecast

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in