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Gold Price Trend Forecast Summer 2019

UK Immigration Crisis Hits New Extreme, Catastrophic ONS Migration Stats Ahead of EU Referendum

ElectionOracle / Immigration May 27, 2016 - 04:06 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

The latest ONS data released this week shows an ACCELERATION in the rate of mass migration into Britain, in what amounts to a continuing 17 year long exponential trend of out of control immigration with net migration of +333k in the year to December 2015 added to Britain's population, an INCREASE of 20k on the preceding year which illustrates that immigration is STILL ACCELERATING. Which literally translates into a DAILY flood of near 1000 people turning up on Britain's shores and demanding housing, education, school places, jobs and benefits such as tax credits, housing and child benefits, health & social services that have been buckling and breaking as illustrated by social housing that in most cities has been in a state of total paralysis for many years now.


The impact of out of control immigration is all persuasive from jobs, to housing to health. For instance call your local NHS dentist up for an appointment after having been for a while and they will likely tell you that you are no longer registered even though your last visit was less than 2 years ago! As since without any knowledge of registered patients the Dental practice has CHANGED its registered patients rule from 2 years to 15 months ultimately down to 12 months. Which effectively means that an increasing number of British people are no longer able to see ANY NHS dentist! As they are no longer taking new patients. This is just ONE REAL WORLD example of the consequences of out of control immigration.

The Conservative governments failures to control immigration for the past 6 years is just a continuation of the Labour immigration catastrophe that set in motion a 17 year long immigration mega-trend for importation of over 8 million people (total immigration) where approx 90% of the adults were expected to vote Labour of which at least 90% are on benefits such as tax credits as the following graph illustrates, that immigration really IS OUT OF CONTROL!

"Overall, net immigration would be kept in the tens of thousands, rather than the current rate of hundreds of thousands”. Promised David Cameron in 2010.

When David Cameron took power in 2010 he promised that he would cut net immigration by 2015 to the tens of thousands from the then disastrous annual figure of 205,000, instead the latest data from the ONS shows that net immigration remains OUT OF CONTROL at levels far higher level than 2010's disastrous figure that today stands well above 300k and trending towards 400k per annum. Remember this is ACCUMULATIVE 300k+330k+400k, would total a net immigration population increase of 1 million in JUST 3 YEARS! Which would be in addition to natural population growth running at about 400k per annum.

The bottom line is that the UK government demonstrably has NO CONTROL over Britain's borders whilst within the EU, which means that out of control immigration WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST and the trend for which is BOTH EXPONENTIAL and UNSUSTAINABLE.

The immigration statistics break down into the following facts:

Total immigration Year to Dec 2015 630k
Total emigration Year to Dec 2015 297k
Net immigration Year to March 2015 333k
   
Total Immigration since 2004 7.2 million
Total Emigration since 2004 4 million
Net Immigration since 2004 3.2 million
   

 

A key point that the mainstream press has apparently missed is that the net figures mask the reality of what the gross immigration figure of 630k implies, which effectively means that the impact of immigration is DOUBLE to that which the headline figure of 333k suggests i.e. in terms of social cohesion and housing and services for those pockets of the UK most effected by immigration namely London, the South East and other inner cities. Immigration is also one of the driving forces for the buy to let sector as foreign born populations are three times more likely to rent than UK born people, which in large part is due to the benefits system i.e. migrants greater propensity to claim housing benefit.

ONS Statistics Under Report REAL Immigration by 50% !

The mainstream press is belatedly waking up to the fact that the UK governments official migration statistics compiled by the ONS under report real permanent immigration from the EU by at least 50% per year! For instance ONS EU immigration stats since 2011 saw a net 1.1 million european union migrants permanently settle in the UK. However during this same time period 2.2 million National Insurance numbers were issued to european migrants. I have been flagging this huge persistent disparity in numbers for several years now that illustrates that the official immigration statistics just cannot be trusted!

The most recent ONS release further illustrates this huge continuing disparity as whilst the ONS states 270,000 EU migrants settled in the UK in the year to March 2016. However, during the same time period, 630,000 EU nationals applied for National Insurance numbers, necessary to claim in work and other benefits which is nearly 2.5X the headline ONS statistics!

To further breakdown the ONS statistic so as to get a truer sense at the scale and source of continuing mass immigration reveals that Eastern Europe still accounts for the bulk of mass immigration, then Southern Europe (PIGGS) and then nation's outside of the EU.

So Why the Discrepancy Between NINo and Official Statistics?

It all boils down to the Mr bean-esk methodology for measuring immigration 'The Passenger Survey'. Which basically samples passengers entering the UK at its main airports and asks them if they are coming to the UK to visit or to stay and that is how the ONS arrives at its magic fantasy number for the number of migrants permanently entering the UK as those who say they are entering the UK for less than 12 months are NOT COUNTED. So it is becoming apparent that most visitors from the EU tend to state that they are only visiting i.e. for less than 12 months, but instead end up settling permanently given the huge disparity in wages and benefits between Britain and the whole of eastern europe, and thus the official statistics under report real permanent immigration into Britain from the EU by at least 50%!

Even Channel 4 news has belatedly jumped onto the erroneous migration statistics bandwagon by showing permanently settled Polish migrants stating that if they had been asked at the airport whether they were coming to the UK to settle or just visit then they would have said NO they are not coming to the UK to permanently settle, despite having done so (you may be able to see the story on their youtube channel)

John Redwood commented: “The fact is over a five year period 1.2million additional people came here, got a job and got an NI number and obviously lived here for a considerable period of time even if some of them have now departed.

“And they needed to attend doctors surgeries, to have school places for their children and so forth.

“If we look at the figures for GP registrations we see that in the last two years alone an additional 1.1million people have registered for GP services implying that the NI numbers are closer to the truth and implying we need to look at the NI numbers as well as the formal migration numbers when planning public provision.”

Whilst Iain Duncan Smith commented to the BBC - "They come in, they do hot bedding in bed and breakfasts and things like that, they then take jobs at much lower rates,"

"This has forced the salaries of people in low-skilled and semi-skilled jobs down so they have suffered directly as a result of uncontrolled borders with short-term migration.

"I'm astonished that a government, my government, can sit here and say we had a pledge to bring down migration to tens of thousands but it's all right then because it doesn't matter how many people come in as long as they don't stay more than 52 weeks."

And to make matters worse, the NI numbers don't include the self employed i.e. all those polish builders. So the true extent of mass EU migration could easily be running at 100k per annum higher then even that which the NINo suggests.

The bottom line is that ONS's migration statistics are not fit for purpose as I have been warning of for some years now. So instead of the most recent ONS statistics implying that net migration is running at 333,000 per annum, the truth is closer near twice that number! Where allowing lower outside of EU migration then real immigration is running at least at 500,000 per annum That means an extra 2 million mouths to feed by 2020 as the UK population homes in on 70 million with dire consequences for all aspects of life in Britain from employment, to schooling to social services such as health and not forgetting the housing crisis.

Why People are Migrating to the UK

Contrary to press stories of civil wars, most of the migration (90%) into the UK has been purely economic that includes to study, many of whom turn out to be bogus students who instead are here to work illegally and for permanent settlement.

Which illustrates the fact that approx 60% of all new jobs created have gone to migrant workers, most of whom will be claiming in work benefits such as tax credits that amounts to fraud on the British tax payers, which typically means that for every pound a low income migrant family earns in income then they tend to receive an equal or greater amount in benefits as the following example illustrates:

Family of 6, with both parents working for minimum wage, each earning £8k per annum.

Employment
£16,000
Tax & NI Paid
£0
Tax Credits Received
£12,448
Child Benefit
£2,892
Housing Benefit
£6,600
Total Benefits
£21,940
Total Income
£37,940

 

So a family of six with BOTH parents working will receive approx £22k in benefits ON TOP of their £16k earnings, a total income of £38k, and it is THIS which illustrates the magnitude of what to all intents and purposes is FRAUD perpetrated on British tax payers as most migrant workers tend to take FAR MORE in benefits than they actually receive in wages. And this is BEFORE factoring in the costs of schooling and health that could yet double the total amount of resources TAKEN in what amounts to at least a £50 billion migrant benefits and services economic noose around Britain's neck.

Whilst a 3 child family would receive approx £18.5k in in work benefits and a 2 child family £15k which makes a mockery of the claims of hard working migrant families contributing more than they take which is JUST NOT TRUE! And this does not include benefits taken by non working migrant families that are capped at £20k per annum (outside London).

EU Referendum - Britain Better off LEAVING the EU

Over the past 18 months of analysis I have come to the firm conclusion that on the balance of probabilities that Britain would be far better off in the long-run by LEAVING to the European Union. Yes, there would be short-term uncertainty and some economic pain, but the price of remaining within the EU will be INFINITELY greater as my articles such as this and videos to date illustrate.

For instance research by the SMF/Adecco Group states that if EU migrants were subject to the same visa requirements as non EU migrants then 90% of whom would NOT have been allowed entry into the UK for work! i.e. instead of approx 4.5 million EU migrants since 2000, there would only have been 450,000! Which suggests that following BrExit immigration from the EU could fall by about 90%!

Whilst those who stick their heads in the sand and imagine that the situation will magically correct itself on its own are just fooling themselves, as EU immigration is set to accelerate further due to living wage of £7.20 per hour and set to rise towards £10 per hour, whilst the living wage in many eastern european nations is just £1 per hour, that illustrates that the pull is only going to get even stronger.

Therefore with less than 4 weeks to go and the opinion polls virtually neck and neck on 44%, I have been ramping up our campaign for a BrExit outcome as we enter this last stretch, producing Brexit resources from in-depth analysis, rebuttal articles such as this, many videos, and also active on the social networks so as to do our best to play a part in Britain in securing Britain's long-term future, Britain's very last chance for freedom which you too can help to achieve by supporting the Brexit cause.

Counting Down to Freedom - Support Our BrExit Campaign

And lastly I offer a message of HOPE, a message of a New Dawn, New Life for Britain!

And also ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter (only requirement is an email address) for forthcoming in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecasts that include the following :

  • BrExit to Save Europe from the Apocalypse
  • US Dollar Trend Forecast
  • UK Housing Market Trend Forecasts
  • US Stock Market Forecasts
  • US House Prices Detailed Multi-Year Trend Forecast
  • Gold and Silver Price Forecast

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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