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Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

REMAIN Support Collapses as BrExit, LEAVE Jumps into 19 Point EU Referendum Lead

ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum Jun 13, 2016 - 08:17 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

With the EU referendum vote just 10 days away, the latest opinion poll to be released now gives LEAVE an incredulous 19 point lead over REMAIN (52% to 33% with 15% don't knows). Which implies a complete and utter collapse of the REMAIN vote that had until literally days ago held a typical lead of between 6% and 12% over LEAVE for the past 6 months.


The Sunday Express End of EU rule FINALLY in sight: Leave camp take 19-POINT lead as Britons flock to Brexit

The Opinium Poll, commissioned by the Brexit-backing Bruges Group think tank, is further evidence that the Leave camp is gaining support and delivers the biggest margin of victory for Brexit so far, after giving voters the option of a choice of free trade agreements with the EU.

This follows hot on the heels of Fridays poll by ORB that put LEAVE on a 10 point lead over REMAIN of 55% against 45%.

So what is going on? Has the REMAIN vote completely collapsed? After all as a Brexiter it would be great news if it were true!

Well, my recent analysis acted as a reminder that the opinion polls to large extent are pretty much worthless, tending to give the result that those commissioning the polls want to see, perhaps to grab the headlines?

EU Referendum Forecast, REMAIN Panics on BrExit LEAVE Shock 10 Point Lead - 12th June 16

We'll as my analysis of the Scottish Referendum of 2014 and the General Election of 2015 demonstrated why each time the opinion pollsters were DEAD WRONG!

And that what they were advocating was NOT going to happen i.e. Scottish Independence, and that Labour was ahead of the Tories in 2015.

Instead my analysis ahead of each of the elections (excerpted below) consistently concluded that -

a. Scotland would NOT vote for Independence.

b. The Conservatives would WIN the 2015 General Election.

So where the LEAVE campaign is concerned it is very important that Brexiters do not delude themselves into taking the opinion polls seriously, for they are WRONG, LEAVE is NOT 10 points ahead of REMAIN, instead the reality is probably that REMAIN is marginally very tightly still ahead of LEAVE at around 50.4% to 49.6%.

Therefore this is NOT the time for any false sense of security, to congratulate one another as I am seeing widespread on Facebook, because this opinion poll is just as WRONG as all those that have come before! Take this from someone who correctly called BOTH the Scottish Referendum and 2015 General election. Instead realise that we are sat on a knife edge of near 50/50 that given that momentum so far has been with LEAVE means that LEAVE can WIN this Referendum, but only IF the momentum is maintained into polling day!

Therefore, this opinion poll IS also pretty much a worthless media propaganda exercise that does NOT reflect reality which is probably one of a finely balanced knife edge, though with momentum in LEAVE's favour. In terms of the most probable outcome of the referendum then I again refer to my above article that concludes in the following results forecast:

UK 2016 EU Referendum Forecast

The average of the last 6 polls has REMAIN in the lead on 51% against LEAVE on 49% (11th June). However the REMAIN lead is set against the big picture of momentum being on the side of LEAVE that appears to be ACCELERATING. For instance 3 weeks ago REMAIN were ahead on 54% to 46%, which was typical of the REMAINs lead since the start of 2016 that entered the new year on 56% against 44%.

However, if as I expect that the LEAVE campaign momentum can be maintained for the remaining 11 days then LEAVE should be able to just achieve a tight referendum victory. Therefore the sum of my year long analysis comprising well over 120 articles and over a dozen videos then my forecast conclusion is for a LEAVE victory of 51.3% to 48.7%, a winning margin of less than 2.7%.

But to achieve this victory all Brexiters need to further intensify their efforts because as things stand today (12th June) REMAIN is probably just marginally ahead with less than 1% between REMAIN and LEAVE on an estimated 50.4% REMAIN against 49.6% LEAVE, so there is still a lot of hard work to be done in these last few days do achieve a LEAVE Brexit outcome.

BrExit Campaign

So this is NOT the time to slacken off as LEAVE are on the very edge of attaining victory which demands MAXIMUM EFFORTS during these last 10 days! In which respect we at the Market Oracle having recognised just how critical the situation truly is and have been doubling our efforts so as to do our best to assure a Brexit outcome by producing in-depth analysis, rebuttal articles of REMAIN propaganda and numerous videos of which these are the most recent:

You too can help achieve a LEAVE victory by supporting our BrExit campaign in this last push to secure Britain's future free of the emerging EU superstate.

Counting Down to Freedom - Support Our BrExit Campaign

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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