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BrExit Poll Nonsense... Stock Market Rally

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Jun 21, 2016 - 01:11 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman


We were all waiting for this Brexit situation to come and go this coming Thursday evening. Then a small sample poll was taken late yesterday and it showed a 70% vote in favor of Britain staying. The futures across the world went nuts to the up side. Europe had many countries up over 3%. Some approaching 4%. Amazing what a small poll can bring out in terms of froth. A market that wants higher will use any excuse to rock itself higher. You can also add in Kurota from Japan saying last night that more easing is on the way. None of it has worked, but that won't stop his desperation. The market got enough frothing news to rock itself up, except in the end the candles were weak today.

On balance selling after the open. Black candles telling us the masses aren't yet convinced all is well with Brexit. Still too much risk for those involved in this market to buy up froth stocks. They underperformed all day. The Nasdaq was lagging, as usual, quite badly. The tech stocks that lead were barely doing anything positive. In the really good bullish times these stocks, like Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Facebook, Inc. (FB) to name a couple, would be blasting off and well out performing, but once again that was not the case today. This 2100-2135 area is still a bit too tough for those frothing bulls living in Disneyland. So today was nice, and a pleasant surprise for the bulls, but in the end, it's not the best candles, and still too tough to get through that 2100 area with force.

Black candles today are worth discussing a bit. Remember, a black candle is an up day, but on balance sellers once the market opens for trading. When a market gets good news it should open up with a gap to the up side and continue to run higher all day. Normal behavior when things are good and rocking up. Today the market had perceived good news and couldn't get buyers once the frothing open occurred. The question is, why is the market quietly telling us most of the good news is in?

It's one worth exploring. I remember back in 2000 when AOL got broad band and everyone said here's yet the next ridiculous move higher. That was the end of the bull. See the news. Probably not the case now, but you wonder when all this nonsense will end. The black candles today were quite a surprise to most. The size of some of them were quite huge. It may mean nothing or it may mean everything. We'll only know Thursday evening when the actual news comes out on the vote. It is interesting times for the moment in a very boring, two-year stretch.

The bottom line is the market has two levels that matter, 2120, or the last high on the S&P 500. If that gets taken out, we can see 2134, and then blue skies on the breakout. 2036 is the 200-day exponential moving average. It's quite a large gap of points to drive everyone nuts. Only when one level gets taken out with force does anything matter. The market is tougher than it should be based on outside interference and other nonsense taking place daily.

Keep it light.



Jack Steiman is author of ( ). Former columnist for, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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© 2016

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

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