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Gold Forecasts Revised Upwards to $1200

Commodities / Gold & Silver Jul 22, 2008 - 05:22 AM GMT

By: Mark_OByrne

Commodities Gold finished trading in New York yesterday at $963.40, up $7.00 and silver was up 25 cents to 18.37. Gold traded sideways to slightly up in Asia before rising in early European trading by nearly 1%.


Gold remained firm and the dollar was under steady selling pressure for much of the day yesterday and remained so overnight as markets reacted to a bounce in oil prices and a raft of dismal earnings reports from a number of leading US companies including American Express (significant rise in consumers defaulting on loans), Apple (gloomy outlook for Q3) and Texas Instruments. U.S. growth will slow in the second half of the year as unemployment rises and stock-market declines erode household wealth, according to an index of leading economic indicators.

With oil and the dollar essentially flat, gold seems to be reacting to the renewed weakness in international stock markets – Asian stock markets were mixed overnight and most European stock markets have again fallen sharply this morning.

Risk aversion will remain paramount in the coming weeks and this bodes very well for gold – especially with inflation and stagflation stalking the global economy.

Silver and palladium are up by more than 1% this morning and platinum is up by 2% after recent sharp falls.

Gold Analysts Revise Up Gold Price Forecasts
Even those who were bearish very recently and incorrectly called for gold to fall below $850 (some even predicted gold falling to $700) have turned from being bearish to being bullish and many have been revising their forecasts upwards. Many are now calling for gold above $1,200 before year end.

John Reade, analyst at UBS Ltd., said in a report yesterday that, ``If gold moves from being a minority-held asset class to a popular safe-haven then our short-term forecasts of $1,000 an ounce in one month and $1,050 in three months will look very conservative.''

Recently, Citigroup also revised up its forecasts. Mining and metals analyst John Hill said the mix of macro and supply/demand factors, along with the same forces that have pushed gold higher for the last five years, give him good reason to remain bullish on gold. He sees prices climbing through 2009 and 2010. “Longer term, we would not be surprised to see gold double from current levels as the global policy prescriptions for the credit crunch remain powerfully and uniformly re-flationary,” the analyst told clients.

Gold's Performance as a Safe Haven Asset
An example of gold's historic role as a safe haven asset is seen in the following data. The industry performance of Physical Gold Versus the S&P 500 during eleven stock market declines of 15% or more in the Post-War period (since 1946).



Today's Data and Influences
Stock markets and breaking financial news seems likely to be the primary driver of currency and precious metal markets today.

Gold and Silver
Gold is trading at $973.20/973.80 per ounce (1145 GMT).
Silver is trading at $18.60/18.65 per ounce (1145 GMT).

PGMs

Platinum is trading at $1869/1879 per ounce (1145 GMT).
Palladium is trading at $416/420 per ounce (1145  GMT).

By Mark O'Byrne, Executive Director

Gold Investments
63 Fitzwilliam Square
Dublin 2
Ireland
Ph +353 1 6325010
Fax  +353 1 6619664
Email info@gold.ie
Web www.gold.ie
Gold and Silver Investments Limited
No. 1 Cornhill
London,
EC3V 3ND
United Kingdom
Ph +44 (0) 207 0604653
Fax +44 (0) 207 8770708
Email info@www.goldassets.co.uk
Web www.goldassets.co.uk

Gold and Silver Investments Ltd. have been awarded the MoneyMate and Investor Magazine Financial Analyst of 2006.

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Gold and Silver Investments Limited hope to inform our clientele of important financial and economic developments and thus help our clientele and prospective clientele understand our rapidly changing global economy and the implications for their livelihoods and wealth.
We focus on the medium and long term global macroeconomic trends and how they pertain to the precious metal markets and our clienteles savings, investments and livelihoods. We emphasise prudence, safety and security as they are of paramount importance in the preservation of wealth.

Financial Regulation: Gold & Silver Investments Limited trading as Gold Investments is regulated by the Financial Regulator as a multi-agency intermediary. Our Financial Regulator Reference Number is 39656. Gold Investments is registered in the Companies Registration Office under Company number 377252 . Registered for VAT under number 6397252A . Codes of Conduct are imposed by the Financial Regulator and can be accessed at www.financialregulator.ie or from the Financial Regulator at PO Box 9138, College Green, Dublin 2, Ireland. Property, Commodities and Precious Metals are not regulated by the Financial Regulator

Disclaimer: The information in this document has been obtained from sources, which we believe to be reliable. We cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. It does not constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any investment. Any person acting on the information contained in this document does so at their own risk. Recommendations in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Individual circumstances should be considered before a decision to invest is taken. Investors should note the following: The value of investments may fall or rise against investors' interests. Income levels from investments may fluctuate. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value of, or income from, investments denominated in foreign currencies. Past experience is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

All the opinions expressed herein are solely those of Gold & Silver Investments Limited and not those of the Perth Mint. They do not reflect the views of the Perth Mint and the Perth Mint accepts no legal liability or responsibility for any claims made or opinions expressed herein.

Mark O'Byrne Archive

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