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Late Morning Brexit Poll Kills Earlier Stock Market Rally

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Jun 23, 2016 - 10:45 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman


It is normal for markets to drift higher ahead of an important news event. Hope trumps fear most of the time in this crazy game. I think it's about most folks thinking the worst case scenario won't happen. That intervention will take over right at the end and keep things status quo. It seems impossible in the minds of the masses that something terrible can actually occur since the world banks, etc are always doing something to make sure nothing all that bad takes place.

This said, the market was moving higher all morning until the news came out that a new poll showed a slight lead for those wanting the exit strategy. The market tanked the moment that came out. Getting too close to the vote to still have the exit strategy in the lead. Fear is starting to creep in, and that's why the market tanked out off of the highs. It took but a few minutes.

The market never recovered. Understandable I guess since a Brexit would likely have a bad effect on all of the world markets. The market traders are not used to having such an important event get this close without a real understanding of what the final vote will ultimately be. The bulls are blinking. Unusual. The folks of Britain seem very committed to change. The fact that the numbers are this close shows you we could actually see an historic event take place Thursday night when the final votes are tabulated.

We are at crossroads for the bull market. I'm not sure how well the market would react to good news meaning Britain will stay in the Euro zone, but it appears the market will be very unhappy should they leave. We're almost there, folks. Things are about to get very interesting. If we see more polls tonight that will affect the overnight futures. Be prepared for anything.

The market showed again today why it seems as if something is up behind the scenes. More horrendous earnings reports from major sector leaders. Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE) and FedEx Corporation (FDX) both were crushed on their reports. How the markets remain positive is beyond my understanding. I honestly don't get it any more. Bad earnings. High S&P 500 P/E. Historically high in fact. Poor economic reports globally. Massive negative divergences on the index monthly charts. Add it all up and you have a market that should be screaming lower. It doesn't fall. Clearly being held up in ways we don't understand. With that in mind the risk to me is still quite elevated and increasingly so with every move higher we get. Maybe we break out Friday. It'll do what it'll do. Sit back and relax and enjoy the show since the market, in truth, is no longer in our hands any longer. It's now the fed market. RIP stock market. The new game is in town. Enjoy while you can if you're a bull. Disneyland is still with us, but won't be forever. Get ready for Friday morning fireworks.



Jack Steiman is author of ( ). Former columnist for, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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© 2016

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

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