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U.S. House Prices Analysis and Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021

SPX testing critical resistance...again

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Jul 01, 2016 - 03:19 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

You may remember the Expanded Flat level at 2116.00, representing the November 3 high. The June 8 high slightly overshot it at 2120.55. Well, today’s target happens to be…2116.00 again! You simply cannot make this up. It may slightly overshoot (again), but this may be the most critical resistance that we have seen.


Who’s buying? Retail investors certainly are not. Smart money is not. ZeroHedge reports, “The new normal sure is strange: with the S&P flirting with all time highs, not to mention staging another dramatic V-shaped comeback from the post-Brexit crash which saw S&P futures trade limit down a week ago, investors keep on selling. According to Lipper data, U.S.-based stock mutual funds, which are held by retail mom-and-pop investors, posted cash withdrawals of $2.8 billion over the weekly period ended Wednesday; this was the 16th consecutive week of outflows.”

VIX also has another probe lower. The target is 14.30 to 14.50 in a ninth wave, which is impulsive.

The VIX ETNs are in a similar spot, with VXX potentially bottoming near its Wave [a] low of 13.52.

TNX has gapped down again, but not to an all-time low, yet. It must exceed the Wave [3] low of 13.94 made in July, 2012.

Bloomberg reports, “Yields on 10- and 30-year U.S. Treasuries fell to record lows, defying forecasters who for years have said they would rise, amid signs that Britain’s vote to leave the European Union will curb global economic growth and prevent the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates this year.

Just days before America’s 240th birthday, the U.S. 30-year bond yield dropped as much as 10 basis points to an unprecedented 2.1873 percent, while benchmark 10-year yields slid to 1.3784 percent. They joined a rally in bonds around the globe as some of the world’s biggest investors, including BlackRock Inc., Guggenheim Partners and Vanguard Group Inc., said the Brexit vote means subdued growth and lower yields for years to come.”

Note that futures yields are lower, while futures NAVs are higher than the cash market.

Regards,

Tony

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As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals.

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

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