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Urgent Stock Market Message

EU Citizens Living in UK BrExit Status Not Secure, Not Guaranteed

Politics / BrExit Jul 08, 2016 - 04:25 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat


Junker, Tusk, Hollande, Merkel and the whole of the heavily UK subsidised Eastern European states have been busy laying down threats of x,y,z happening of what Britain faces in its attempts to negotiate its way out of the European Union. Though it's not hard to see why the EU has adopted such a threatening stance because it's obvious Britain breaking away from the EU threatens a wider breakup and ultimately a collapse of the EU project, hence triggering such an aggressive response. Whilst Eastern Europe does not want it's UK gravy train to end that the region profits from to the tune of £75 billion a year!

Whilst many senior British politicians from North of Hadrian's Wall to the white cliffs of Dover have jumped on to the bandwagon to state that EU nationals already living in the UK can be reassured that their status in the UK is safe and that they won't at some point have to apply for residency. However, this fly's in the face of simple logic, rational thought and pure commonsense, because Britain leaving the EU puts EVERYTHING up for negotiations. Where whilst the EU keeps playing its trade trump card, Britain apparently is giving up one of its trump cards, that of 5 million EU nationals living in the UK.

Even Nigel Farage says he would guarantee UK nationals living in the UK, perhaps he has clocked onto the implications that his wife is GERMAN!

It makes no sense whatsoever to today guarantee the status of approx 5 million EU nationals living in the UK where for instance if the EU turns around and USES this against Britain by threatening punitive actions against the 1.2 million Brit's living in the EU. So this illustrates just how clueless most politicians really are when they make statements of guaranteeing x,y,z all without having agreed any reciprocity for Brit's living in the EU first and hence if these clueless politicians had their way then they would turn one of Britains strongest trump cards into a worthless David Cameron-esk scrap of EU toilet paper.

The sensible response would be to say that Britain would be willing to immediately guarantee the status of 1.2 million EU nationals living in the EU if the EU announced the same for the 1.2 million Brit's living in the EU with the rest being up for negotiations.

Of the two prospective candidates for next Tory Leader and Prime Minister, so far only Theresa May the former REMAIN backer is making the right noises by stating:

"What's important is there will be a negotiation here as to how we deal with that issue of people who are already here and who have established life here and Brit's who have established a life in other countries within the European Union.

"The position at the moment is as it has been, there's no change at the moment, but of course we have to factor that into negotiations.

"As part of the negotiation we will need to look at this question of people who are here in the UK from the EU."

Though most recently Theresa May has watered down her stance a little by her team stating - "that we will guarantee the legal status of EU nationals in Britain as long as British nationals living in EU countries have their status guaranteed too.”

Whilst Andrea Leadsom, a Brexiteer has stated that she would immediately guarantee the status of existing EU nationals living in the UK:

"I commit today guaranteeing rights of EU friends who have already come here to live and work. We must give them certainty, there is no way they will be bargaining chips in our negotiations."

So clearly Andrea Leadsom is showing her lack of experience in giving up one of Britains trump cards without any reciprocity from Europe. Given her naivety then it is highly likely that she too will soon start to back track on this over the coming weeks as the Tory Leadership contest draws to its conclusion, which at this point strongly favours Theresa May.

I can see there being two consequences:

1. EU nationals and Brit's abroad WILL become negotiating chips

2. Many EU nationals will be applying for UK citizenship, i.e. dual nationality so as to guarantee their residency. Which means by the time BrExit happens as many as half of today's EU nationals will be on their way towards becoming British citizens.

At the end of the day Britain wants to keep the hard working, tax paying EU migrant workers whilst sending back the several millions who are a permanent burden on the British state i.e. the low paid heavily subsidised by tax credits and housing benefits workers, or the growing number that don't even work and in large part have triggered a crisis in health, education and housing, which is the reason why Britain voted to LEAVE the EU to save Britain from paralysis in all aspects of day to day life.

As for the implications of BrExit on the UK economy and markets then see see my recent extensive analysis that looked at ten major drivers for the UK economy, of what to expect to happen next:

And watch the following video of what actually happened on BrExit night that caught virtually ALL by surprise as illustrated by my selection of the highlights from 8 hours of BBC coverage of the EU Referendum result.

Also see the second video on trading markets during brexit night that illustrates how all hell broke lose once the polls closed Thursday 23rd June, triggering a sharp rally in sterling and FTSE futures that was sustained until the actual results started to be announced shortly after midnight triggering a 5 hour market panic.

And ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for more in-depth analysis that attempts to map out what is likely to happen next to Britain and Europe.

By Nadeem Walayat

Copyright © 2005-2016 (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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