Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 - 3rd Jul 20
Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture - 3rd Jul 20
Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet - 3rd Jul 20
Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold - 3rd Jul 20
Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets - 3rd Jul 20
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Big Pharma Stock for Machine Learning Life Extension Investing - 2nd Jul 20
All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook - 2nd Jul 20
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon - 2nd Jul 20
US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee - 2nd Jul 20
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery - 2nd Jul 20
Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go - 2nd Jul 20
Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' - 2nd Jul 20
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... - 1st Jul 20
Politicians Prepare New Money Drops as US Dollar Weakens - 1st Jul 20
Gold Stocks Still Undervalued - 1st Jul 20
High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? - 1st Jul 20
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move - 1st Jul 20
In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive - 30th Jun 20
Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession - 30th Jun 20
Silver Is Still Cheap For Now - 30th Jun 20
More Stock Market Selling Ahead - 30th Jun 20
Trending Ecommerce Sites in 2020 - 30th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice - 29th Jun 20
APPLE Tech Stock for Investing to Profit from the Machine Learning Mega trend - 29th Jun 20
Student / Gamer Custom System Build June 2020 Proving Impossible - Overclockers UK - 29th Jun 20
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles - 29th Jun 20
Europe's Banking Sector: When (and Why) the Rout Really Began - 29th Jun 20
Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! - 29th Jun 20
Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs - 29th Jun 20
US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared - 29th Jun 20
Meet BlackRock, the New Great Vampire Squid - 28th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment - 28th Jun 20
U.S. Long Bond: Let's Review the "Upward Point of Exhaustion" - 27th Jun 20
Gold, Copper and Silver are Must-own Metals - 27th Jun 20
Why People Have Always Held Gold - 27th Jun 20
Crude Oil Price Meets Key Resistance - 27th Jun 20
INTEL x86 Chip Giant Stock Targets Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Computing for 2020's Growth - 25th Jun 20
Gold’s Long-term Turning Point is Here - 25th Jun 20
Hainan’s ASEAN Future and Dark Clouds Over Hong Kong - 25th Jun 20
Silver Price Trend Analysis - 24th Jun 20
A Stealth Stocks Double Dip or Bear Market Has Started - 24th Jun 20
Trillion-dollar US infrastructure plan will draw in plenty of metal - 24th Jun 20
WARNING: The U.S. Banking System ISN’T as Strong as Advertised - 24th Jun 20
All That Glitters When the World Jitters is Probably Gold - 24th Jun 20
Making Sense of Crude Oil Price Narrow Trading Range - 23rd Jun 20
Elon Musk Mocks Nikola Motors as “Dumb.” Is He Right? - 23rd Jun 20
MICROSOFT Transforming from PC Software to Cloud Services AI, Deep Learning Giant - 23rd Jun 20
Stock Market Decline Resumes - 22nd Jun 20
Excellent Silver Seasonal Buying Opportunity Lies Directly Ahead - 22nd Jun 20
Where is the US Dollar trend headed ? - 22nd Jun 20
Most Shoppers have Stopped Following Supermarket Arrows, is Coughing the New Racism? - 22nd Jun 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

AI Stocks 2020-2035 15 Year Trend Forecast

EU Citizens Living in UK BrExit Status Not Secure, Not Guaranteed

Politics / BrExit Jul 08, 2016 - 04:25 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

Junker, Tusk, Hollande, Merkel and the whole of the heavily UK subsidised Eastern European states have been busy laying down threats of x,y,z happening of what Britain faces in its attempts to negotiate its way out of the European Union. Though it's not hard to see why the EU has adopted such a threatening stance because it's obvious Britain breaking away from the EU threatens a wider breakup and ultimately a collapse of the EU project, hence triggering such an aggressive response. Whilst Eastern Europe does not want it's UK gravy train to end that the region profits from to the tune of £75 billion a year!


Whilst many senior British politicians from North of Hadrian's Wall to the white cliffs of Dover have jumped on to the bandwagon to state that EU nationals already living in the UK can be reassured that their status in the UK is safe and that they won't at some point have to apply for residency. However, this fly's in the face of simple logic, rational thought and pure commonsense, because Britain leaving the EU puts EVERYTHING up for negotiations. Where whilst the EU keeps playing its trade trump card, Britain apparently is giving up one of its trump cards, that of 5 million EU nationals living in the UK.

Even Nigel Farage says he would guarantee UK nationals living in the UK, perhaps he has clocked onto the implications that his wife is GERMAN!

It makes no sense whatsoever to today guarantee the status of approx 5 million EU nationals living in the UK where for instance if the EU turns around and USES this against Britain by threatening punitive actions against the 1.2 million Brit's living in the EU. So this illustrates just how clueless most politicians really are when they make statements of guaranteeing x,y,z all without having agreed any reciprocity for Brit's living in the EU first and hence if these clueless politicians had their way then they would turn one of Britains strongest trump cards into a worthless David Cameron-esk scrap of EU toilet paper.

The sensible response would be to say that Britain would be willing to immediately guarantee the status of 1.2 million EU nationals living in the EU if the EU announced the same for the 1.2 million Brit's living in the EU with the rest being up for negotiations.

Of the two prospective candidates for next Tory Leader and Prime Minister, so far only Theresa May the former REMAIN backer is making the right noises by stating:

"What's important is there will be a negotiation here as to how we deal with that issue of people who are already here and who have established life here and Brit's who have established a life in other countries within the European Union.

"The position at the moment is as it has been, there's no change at the moment, but of course we have to factor that into negotiations.

"As part of the negotiation we will need to look at this question of people who are here in the UK from the EU."

Though most recently Theresa May has watered down her stance a little by her team stating - "that we will guarantee the legal status of EU nationals in Britain as long as British nationals living in EU countries have their status guaranteed too.”

Whilst Andrea Leadsom, a Brexiteer has stated that she would immediately guarantee the status of existing EU nationals living in the UK:

"I commit today guaranteeing rights of EU friends who have already come here to live and work. We must give them certainty, there is no way they will be bargaining chips in our negotiations."

So clearly Andrea Leadsom is showing her lack of experience in giving up one of Britains trump cards without any reciprocity from Europe. Given her naivety then it is highly likely that she too will soon start to back track on this over the coming weeks as the Tory Leadership contest draws to its conclusion, which at this point strongly favours Theresa May.

I can see there being two consequences:

1. EU nationals and Brit's abroad WILL become negotiating chips

2. Many EU nationals will be applying for UK citizenship, i.e. dual nationality so as to guarantee their residency. Which means by the time BrExit happens as many as half of today's EU nationals will be on their way towards becoming British citizens.

At the end of the day Britain wants to keep the hard working, tax paying EU migrant workers whilst sending back the several millions who are a permanent burden on the British state i.e. the low paid heavily subsidised by tax credits and housing benefits workers, or the growing number that don't even work and in large part have triggered a crisis in health, education and housing, which is the reason why Britain voted to LEAVE the EU to save Britain from paralysis in all aspects of day to day life.

As for the implications of BrExit on the UK economy and markets then see see my recent extensive analysis that looked at ten major drivers for the UK economy, of what to expect to happen next:

And watch the following video of what actually happened on BrExit night that caught virtually ALL by surprise as illustrated by my selection of the highlights from 8 hours of BBC coverage of the EU Referendum result.

Also see the second video on trading markets during brexit night that illustrates how all hell broke lose once the polls closed Thursday 23rd June, triggering a sharp rally in sterling and FTSE futures that was sustained until the actual results started to be announced shortly after midnight triggering a 5 hour market panic.

And ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for more in-depth analysis that attempts to map out what is likely to happen next to Britain and Europe.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules