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Why 95% of Traders Fail

Stock Market Bears Turning Bullish At New All Time Highs - Time to Get Worried?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Aug 15, 2016 - 04:12 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

The relentlessly bullish grind higher in the face of year long mantra of perma-doom, collapse, crash or worse is once more seeing stocks setting a series of new all time highs. Even today, as I write the Dow is trading AT a new all time high of 18,665! So what is it that could derail the mother of all stocks bull markets? Or at least suggest a significant correction was just around the corner?


We'll that would be the perma- bears turning BULLISH which apparently actually has started to happen since the Dow set a new all time high last week and will likely to continue to do so this week that once more busted the TOP is DEFINETLY IN we are in a BEAR MARKET Mantra all the way into the Dow's current series of new all time highs, all the way from January's low of 15,450 when bear market rhetoric had reached its peak to today's trading level of 18,665.

As an example of one of dozens I could offer, Money Morning who had convinced themselves a year ago when the Dow was about 3,000 points lower! That they were 99.7% sure that stocks were in a bear market, a bearish view that they had been maintaining as far as I can see right up until quite recently.

28th August 2015 - moneymorning.com Is This a Bear Market?

It actually indicates there's a 99.7% chance we're already in a bear market.

10th August 2016 - The Biggest 2016 Stock Market Crash Warning We've Seen Yet

We just received the biggest 2016 stock market crash warning sign we've seen all year...

Just after which the Dow set a new all time high.

However, the other day I got a very troubling email from the same crew, usually I only glance at the titles for their consistently bearish stance but this one caught my eye as now apparently the Dow could be heading for 20k!

13th August 2016 - Why Dow 20,000 Could Arrive Sooner Than Anyone Thinks

And while 20,000 sounds like a stretch from here, it's only about an 8% gain, and easily doable.

And this is just ONE example for there are dozens more I could come up with of those who HAD been consistently bearish now flip flopping and coming out with bullish gibberish, suffering from amnesia to their year long bearish stance. Though I am sure most bears will immediately revert to form when the next correction materialises.

Whilst my consistent view all year as illustrated from the depths of January's deep correction was that the stocks bull market would resume and target a series of new all time highs during the second half of 2016 -

25 Jan 2016 - Stock Market Bottoming Out or the Last Bull Standing?

The bottom line is that the oil price trend and the stock markets oversold state are converging towards a stock market bottom that should carve out a final bottom for 2016 in a time window that probably runs for another 2-3 weeks. So whilst it is probably not going look pretty i.e. the last low of 15,500 looks likely to break, however given the oil price trend forecast then it should form the end of this stock market correction and herald the resumption of the stocks bull market.

And again around the same time MM posted - 17th Jan 2016 - Here's How Low the S&P 500 Could Go in This Bear Market

See my recent video for an update of my consistent view of where this stocks bull market is heading, and ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get my next in-depth analysis in your email in box that I will seek to bring forward in the wake of the current phenomena taking place of bears turning into bulls that a quick take suggests that Dow 18k now appears more likely than Dow 19k.

https://youtu.be/j62TdUTJ884

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

biju.joseph
16 Aug 16, 21:28
no recession within next year

I am reading from reputable website like http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ that no recession is foreseen at least for 1 more year (mid 2017).

So how can there be downturn. I remain optimistic for both economy and stock market until then atleast. let me know if this sounds unreasonable..


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