Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
Overclockers UK Custom Built PC 1 YEAR Use Review Verdict - Does it Still Work? - 16th Oct 21
Altonville Mine Tours Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 16th Oct 21
How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
The Only way to Crush Inflation (not stocks) - 14th Oct 21
Why "Losses Are the Norm" in the Stock Market - 14th Oct 21
Sub Species Castle Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 14th Oct 21
Which Wallet is Best for Storing NFTs? - 14th Oct 21
Ailing UK Pound Has Global Effects - 14th Oct 21
How to Get 6 Years Life Out of Your Overclocked PC System, Optimum GPU, CPU and MB Performance - 13th Oct 21
The Demand Shock of 2022 - 12th Oct 21
4 Reasons Why NFTs Could Be The Future - 12th Oct 21
Crimex Silver: Murder Most Foul - 12th Oct 21
Bitcoin Rockets In Preparation For Liftoff To $100,000 - 12th Oct 21
INTEL Tech Stock to the MOON! INTC 2000 vs 2021 Market Bubble WARNING - 11th Oct 21
AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Wall of Worry Meets NFPs - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Continues - 11th Oct 21
China / US Stock Markets Divergence - 10th Oct 21
Can US Save Taiwan From China? Taiwan Strait Naval Battle - PLA vs 7th Fleet War Game Simulation - 10th Oct 21
Gold Price Outlook: The Inflation Chasm Between Europe and the US - 10th Oct 21
US Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Housing Market Mortgage Interest Rates - 10th Oct 21
US China War over Taiwan Simulation 2021, Invasion Forecast - Who Will Win? - 9th Oct 21
When Will the Fed Taper? - 9th Oct 21
Dancing with Ghouls and Ghosts at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 9th Oct 21
Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
Scan Computers - Custom Build PC 6 Months Later, Reliability, Issues, Quality of Tech Support Review - 8th Oct 21
Gold and Silver: Your Financial Main Battle Tanks - 8th Oct 21
How to handle the “Twin Crises” Evergrande and Debt Ceiling Threatening Stocks - 8th Oct 21
Why a Peak in US Home Prices May Be Approaching - 8th Oct 21
Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK! Post Pandemic Frights Begin, What it's Like to Enter Scarefest 2021 - 8th Oct 21
AJ Bell vs II Interactive Investor - Which Platform is Best for Buying US FAANG Stocks UK Investing - 7th Oct 21
Gold: Evergrande Investors' Savior - 7th Oct 21
Here's What Really Sets Interest Rates (Not Central Banks) - 7th Oct 21
CISCO 2020 Dot com Bubble Stock vs 2021 Bubble Tech Stocks Warning Analysis - 6th Oct 21
Precious Metals Complex Searching for a Bottom - 6th Oct 21
FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG, AAPL and FANG+ '5 Waves' Speaks Volumes - 6th Oct 21
Budgies Flying Ability 10 Weeks After wings Clipped, Flight Feathers Cut Grow Back - 6th Oct 21
Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
Will China's Crackdown Send Bitcoin's Price Tumbling? - 5th Oct 21
Natural Gas News: Europe Lacks Supply, So It Turns to Asia - 5th Oct 21
Stock Market Correction: One More Spark to Light the Fire? - 5th Oct 21
Fractal Design Meshify S2, Best PC Case Review, Build Quality, Airflow etc. - 5th Oct 21
Chasing Value with Five More Biotech Stocks for the Long-run - 4th Oct 21
Gold’s Century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed - 4th Oct 21
NASDAQ Stock Market Head-n-Shoulders Warns Of Market Weakness – Critical Topping Pattern - 4th Oct 21
US Dollar on plan, attended by the Gold/Silver ratio - 4th Oct 21
Aptorum Group - APM - High RIsk Biotech Stocks Buy, Sell, Hold Investing Analysis for the Long-run - 3rd Oct 21
US Close to Hitting the Debt Ceiling: Gold Doesn’t Care - 3rd Oct 21
Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
Original Oculus VR HeadSet Rift Dev Kit v1 Before Facebook Bought Oculus - 3rd Oct 21
Microsoft Stock Valuation 2021 vs 2000 Bubble - Buy Sell or Hold Invest Analysis - 1st Oct 21
How to profit off the Acquisition spree in Fintech Stocks - 1st Oct 21
�� Halloween 2021 TESCO Shopping Before the Next Big Panic Buying! �� - 1st Oct 2
The Guide to Building a Design Portfolio Online - 1st Oct 21
BioDelivery Sciences International - BDSI - High RIsk Biotech Stocks Buy, Sell, Hold Investing Analysis for the Long-run - 30th Sep 21
America’s Revolving-Door Politics Behind the Fall of US-Sino Ties - 30th Sep 21
Dovish to Hawkish Fed: Sounds Bearish for Gold - 30th Sep 21
Stock Market Gauntlet to the Fed - 30th Sep 21
Should you include ESG investments in your portfolio? - 30th Sep 21
Takeda - TAK - High RIsk Biotech Stocks Buy, Sell, Hold Investing Analysis for the Long-run - 29th Sep 21
Stock Market Wishing Away Inflation - 29th Sep 21
Why Workers Are NOT Returning to Work as Lockdown's End - Wage Slaves Rebellion - 29th Sep 21
UK Fuel PANIC! Fighting at the Petrol Pumps! As Lemmings Create a New Crisis - 29th Sep 21
Gold Could See Tapering as Soon as November! - 29th Sep 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Higher Crude Oil’s Prices and USD/CAD

Commodities / Crude Oil Aug 19, 2016 - 04:26 PM GMT

By: Nadia_Simmons

Commodities

Earlier today, the USD Index extended losses against its Canadian counterpart after the disappointing minutes of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting (they vanished expectations for a September rate hike) continued to weigh on investors’ sentiment. Additionally, rising prices of crude oil supported Canadian currency, which pushed USD/CAD under 1.2800. What’s next for the exchange rate?

In our opinion, the following forex trading positions are justified – summary:


EUR/USD: none
GBP/USD: short (stop-loss at 1.3579; initial downside target at 1.2519)
USD/JPY: none
USD/CAD: none
USD/CHF: none
AUD/USD: none

In other words we closing yet another profitable trade by taking profits off the table in case of USD/CHF and USD/CAD.

EUR/USD

Looking at the weekly char, we see that EUR/USD extended gains and climbed above the medium-term brown resistance line, invalidating earlier breakdown. Taking this positive signal (which would be even bullish if the exchange rate closes the week above this line) and buy signals generated by the indcators into account, we think that further improvement is likely.

How high could the pair go in the coming day(s)? Let’s examine the very short-term chart and find out.

From this perspective, we see that although EUR/USD slipped under the brown resistance line yesterday, currency bulls managed to stop decline and trigger an upswing. As a result, the exchange rate invalidated earlier breakdown, which suggests a test of the upper border of the blue rising trend channel in the coming days. At this point, it is also worth noting that this area is also reinforced by the 70.7% Fibonacci retracement and Jun highs, which increases the probability of reversal in near future – especially when we factor in the current position of the daily indicators (the CCI and Stochastic Oscillator are overbought and quite close to generating sell signals).

Very short-term outlook: bullish
Short-term outlook: mixed
MT outlook: mixed
LT outlook: mixed

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment. 

USD/CAD

Last Friday, we wrote the following:

(…) USD/CAD reversed and declined, which resulted in a comeback to the blue consolidation (an invalidation of earlier breakout above the upper line of the formation is a negative signal – especially if the exchange rate closes the week below it).

On the above chart, we see that the situation developed in line with the above scenario and the pair closes the previous week inside the consolidation. This negative event triggered further deterioration this week, which in combination with sell signals generated by the indicators suggests a test of the lower line of the formation.

Are there any technical factors that may stop currency bears in the coming days? Lets focus on the daily chart and find out.

Quoting our Tuesday’s alert:

(…) The pair extended losses and slipped under the mid-Jul lows, which suggests further deterioration and a test of the upper border of the red medium-term support line (around 1.2800) in the coming day(s).

From today’s point of view, we see that currency bears pushed the pair lower as we had expected. With this downswing, USD/CAD reached our downside target on Tuesday. As you see, although the upper border of the red medium-term support line triggered a rebound yesterday, the exchange rate slipped lower earlier today, hitting our target once again. Taking this fact into account and combining it with the proximity to the red line (which serves as the nearest support) and the Fibonacci retracements (slightly below current levels is a support area created by the 76.4% and 78.6% retracements), we think that reversal and higher values of USD/CAD are just around the corner (this scenario is also reinforced by the current position of the daily indicators, which are very close to generating buy signals). Therefore, in our opinion, closing short positions (we opened them when USD/CAD was trading around 1.2972) and taking profits off the table is justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Very short-term outlook: mixed with bullish bias
Short-term outlook: mixed
MT outlook: mixed
LT outlook: mixed

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment. 

USD/CHF

On Tuesday, we wrote the following:

(…) the pair moved significantly lower (making our short positions more profitable) and broke below the Jul and early Aug lows, which is a negative signal that suggests a test of the medium-term blue support line in the coming days.

Looking at the charts, we see that the situation evolved in tune with our forecast and USD/CHF slipped under our downside target. As you see on the daily chart, slightly below current levels is a green support zone (created by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement based on the entire May-Nov 2015 upward move and the 76.4% and 78.6% retracement levels based on the May 2016 increases), which in combination with the current position of the daily indicators suggests reversal and rebound in the coming day(s). Therefore, closing another profitable positions (as a reminder, we opened short positions when USD/CHF was trading around 0.9756) is justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment.

Very short-term outlook: mixed with bullish bias
Short-term outlook: mixed
MT outlook: bearish
LT outlook: mixed

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment. 

Thank you.

Nadia Simmons
Forex & Oil Trading Strategist
Przemyslaw Radomski
Founder, Editor-in-chief

Sunshine Profits: Gold & Silver, Forex, Bitcoin, Crude Oil & Stocks
Stay updated: sign up for our free mailing list today

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Nadia Simmons and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Nadia Simmons and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Nadia Simmons is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Nadia Simmons’ reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Nadia Simmons, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in