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5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

Pakistan Booming House Prices Housing Market Mania Kabza Mafia Warning!

Housing-Market / Pakistan Aug 29, 2016 - 05:52 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Housing-Market

The Pakistani housing market is booming and to a lesser degree is India's, in fact many areas of Pakistan are in the grip of a mania driven by the same forces that are driving the likes of the UK housing market into stratosphere, drivers such as the population explosion, government rampant money printing, all of which have driven what were deemed as being valueless properties as compared to those in the west a decade ago to levels that rival properties across most UK cities even when valued in sterling, dollars or euro's!


As an example a Lahore property that had a sterling value of £35.000 in 2002, today the same property is valued at £420,000! Which is typical of properties not just in major cities such as Lahore, Karachi and Islamabad but the mania has gripped many provisional towns as Pakistan's population has soared by over 100 million in 30 years going from 90 million to nearly 200 million today! a 120% increase and the rate of increase continues to accelerate. Whilst India's population has grown from 800 million to 1.35billion today, a still sizeable increase of 69%. If the UK's population had followed Pakistan's example than instead of today's 65 million total, the UK would have a population of 124 million, so imagine where UK house prices would be if Britain's population had more than doubled as Pakistan's has!

The take off in house prices across the indian sub continent has galvanised many asians who having lived most if not all of their lives in the west to try to get upto speed on what they own mostly through inheritance and how much it is is worth today given the typical ten fold increase in sterling terms in a little over a decade.

However, there is one thing that many gullible westerners invested in the Indian and Pakistani property markets are going to face and that is endemic corruption that makes itself manifest in the theft of shares in properties and land, because theft of property rights through fraud is endemic and there is even a word for it, it's called KABZA! And there is no way someone living in the UK will be able to fight lengthy ownership court battles, where even those who persist would then need to deal with relatively easily arranged kidnappings and murders if the owner ever decided to visit Pakistan. And no I am not kidding, murder of overseas visiting family members for land is rampant!

What's worse its usually done by a greedy family member who either resides in Pakistan or has links on the ground and is that bit more clued up on the inner workings of a mystical paper driven housing markets populated by corrupt housing officials blatantly open to bribes so as to smooth over property sales that may be part owned by others onto third parties so as to extinguish the preceding paper trail, all whilst the gullible sit idly by in the west as years go by, long since their property shares have been sold on to third parties. This is the fate of those invested in the Pakistani and Indian property markets which is why I periodically state that one should ONLY invest in ones domestic markets, which is where one actually resides, as anything else will result in a guaranteed nightmare outcome.

Every family living in the west today has a deviant, hell bent on slyly engineering Kabza on other family members ancestral property shares, as handed down following death of patriarchs. And so if you own, or rather think you own property in Pakistan and India then you had better act fast to liquidate it before you fall victim to Kabza, if you have not already fallen victim to. As being sat in the UK over 3000 miles away lays you wide open to having your inheritance stolen from you by usually deviant greedy family members.

Of course there is a price to pay for liquidating property in Pakistan and India and that is paying tax on the proceeds as you bring the funds home to the UK. But it is better to pay say 28% then lose 100% to Kabza. Which given the property mania currently underway in Pakistan is likely to just get worse as greed trumps any family bonds.

Whilst those thinking of investing to profit from Pakistan's housing market mania need to fully understand that its only going to work if you actually live in Pakistan for a good number of months each year, otherwise you can kiss your profit and investment good bye to Kabza! However note this, that this is how property market manias reach their zenith when soaring house prices greed even infects family members to steal the shares of other family members, quietly, slyly selling properties on whilst the gullible sat in the west watch property shows like location, location, location.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

biju.joseph
29 Aug 16, 17:04
over generalizing

Nadeem,

I think you are over generalizing. I agree that property transactions are not smooth as compared to west eg. Title insurance, escrow, court arbitration quickness etc.

But I think you are stereotyping as a whole. I know that the foreigners owning property in south India is not a problem. Kidnapping does not happen and is taken very seriously. Cities like Kochi has a lot of North Indians also buying property there. I think the same applies to Chennai and Bangalore.

But from a purely money repatriation and returns perspective Investing in local western markets is better.


kareelina
29 Aug 16, 19:40
Asian housing markets risk

So true -

Nephew confesses to murder of Australian-Pakistani family

Islamabad, Pakistan: A nephew has confessed to killing an entire Australian-Pakistani family of five, saying he murdered his relatives because it was “the easiest solution to get money”.

In a prison cell interview, Sikander Zia told Fairfax he and a gang of hired assassins killed the family's seven-year-old son last, binding him with rope and strangling him to death with wire after all of his family members had been murdered.

Mr Zia confessed to police, telling them he hired six assassins from his home province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

“I could not let him live, he knew me and we had played together, and he could identify me,” Zia said in English.

Zia has been arrested by Islamabad police and will be charged with the murders of five members of his own family: Amir Khan, Mr Khan's wife Nazia Amir, and their three children, Romana, 17, Adam, 14 and Haider, 7.

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Twenty-seven-year-old Zia, an MBA graduate, was a nephew to Nazia Amir, and lived near to the family's home in Bahria Town, in southern Islamabad, where they were killed on Sunday, October 13.

Zia confessed to police, telling them he hired six assassins from his home province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, promising them 2.5 million Pakistani rupees to kill the entire Khan family.

His family stood to inherit much of Amir Khan's wealth, reportedly worth tens of millions and mainly held in property, if the Khans all died.

The five Khans were all dual Australian-Pakistan citizens. The two eldest children were born in Australia and the family still owned houses, and had bank accounts, in Australia.

Zia and his accomplices also stabbed to death the Khan's family servant, Asghar, who, police believe, interrupted the crime in progress last Sunday night. Zia has told police Asghar was paid 500,000 Pakistani rupees to assist them in the crime.

Sitting barefoot and wearing a blue salwar kameez, bound in handcuffs and blindfolded with a red sash, Zia spoke to Fairfax in an Islamabad police cell.

He said he murdered the wealthy family for their money because his own petroleum business had foundered.

“It was my plan I came up with 15 days ago. I was facing financial crisis and this was the easiest solution to get money.

“I found the six men in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and made an agreement with them that we would kill these people. I promised them that after the crime I will pay them 2.5 million rupees.”

He said his confession to police was not made under any duress: “I have not been put under any pressure.”

And he said he bore no animosity towards Khan or his family.

“There was no issue between us, between me and Mr Amir. He was a gentleman.”

Zia said he now expected, even wanted, the death penalty, which has only recently been reintroduced in Pakistan after a moratorium, but is still only applied sparingly.

“I cannot face anyone now, not my family, not my friends, not anyone. I can't be forgiven. If I go before a court I will ask the judge for the death penalty. That's what I want. Six people have died because of me, I must face what I did.”

Police Superintendent Mustanzar Feroz told Fairfax the Khan family allowed Zia into the house on Sunday night because he was a trusted relative and a regular visitor. Nazia Amir served him juice.

Zia then let in his accomplices, who attacked the family. The Khans were bound with rope and had their mouths taped shut before being strangled to death, one by one.

“It was a heinous and gruesome crime, the most inhuman act imaginable.

“All the family were killed in front of each other.”

Zia had been under police suspicion since the hours after the killing, but he was formally arrested on Sunday, a week after the murders. Three of his hired killers have been arrested, while three remain on the run.

Zia's mobile phone records show he visited the two sites in Islamabad where the family's bodies were dumped, and he was evasive and contradictory in his initial interviews with police, Superintendent Feroz said.

He said Zia confessed his motive was money. Cash, jewellery and mobile phones were taken from the crime scene.

“Amir Khan was a wealthy man, a billionaire by Pakistani standards. He owned 13 houses in Bahria Town, and he lived a luxurious lifestyle. Sikander's family was not well off, and they stood to inherit a large amount of Mr Khan's wealth if his family were all killed.”

Khan had been threatened before his murder and had bought a Kalashnikov. Friends in Melbourne had warned him not to return to Pakistan, saying he would be killed.


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