Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Who is Spreading the Virus? UK Coronavirus 2nd Wave Analysis - 30th Sep 20
Gold And Silver Follow Up & Future Predictions For 2020 & 2021 – Part II - 30th Sep 20
The Only Thing Systematic Is The Destruction Of America - 29th Sep 20
Fractional-Reserve Banking Is The Elephant In The Room - 29th Sep 20
Gold And Silver Follow Up & Future Predictions For 2020 & 2021 – Part I - 29th Sep 20
Stock Market Short-term Reversal - 29th Sep 20
How Trump co-opted the religious right and stacked the courts with conservatives - 29th Sep 20
Which RTX 3080 GPU to BUY and AVOID! Nvidia, Asus, MSI , Palit, Gigabyte, Zotac, MLCC vs POSCAPS - 29th Sep 20
Gold, Silver & HUI Stocks Big Pictures - 28th Sep 20
It’s Time to Dump Argentina’s Peso - 28th Sep 20
Gold Stocks Seasonal Plunge - 28th Sep 20
Why Did Precious Metals Get Clobbered Last Week? - 28th Sep 20
Is The Stock Market Dow Transportation Index Setting up a Topping Pattern? - 28th Sep 20
Gold Price Setting Up Just Like Before COVID-19 Breakdown – Get Ready! - 27th Sep 20
UK Coronavirus 2nd Wave SuperMarkets Panic Buying 2.0 Toilet Paper , Hand Sanitisers, Wipes... - 27th Sep 20
Gold, Dollar and Rates: A Correlated Story - 27th Sep 20
WARNING RTX 3080 AIB FLAWED Card's, Cheap Capacitor Arrays Prone to Failing Under Load! - 27th Sep 20
Boris Johnson Hits Coronavirus Panic Button Again, UK Accelerting Covid-19 Second Wave - 25th Sep 20
Precious Metals Trading Range Doing It’s Job to Confound Bulls and Bears Alike - 25th Sep 20
Gold and Silver Are Still Locked and Loaded… Don't be Out of Ammo - 25th Sep 20
Throwing the golden baby out with the covid bath water - Gold Wins - 25th Sep 20
A Look at the Perilous Psychology of Financial Market Bubbles - 25th Sep 20
Corona Strikes Back In Europe. Will It Boost Gold? - 25th Sep 20
How to Boost the Value of Your Home - 25th Sep 20
Key Time For Stock Markets: Bears Step Up or V-Shaped Bounce - 24th Sep 20
Five ways to recover the day after a good workout - 24th Sep 20
Global Stock Markets Break Hard To The Downside – Watch Support Levels - 23rd Sep 20
Beware of These Faulty “Inflation Protected” Investments - 23rd Sep 20
What’s Behind Dollar USDX Breakout? - 23rd Sep 20
Still More Room To Stock Market Downside In The Coming Weeks - 23rd Sep 20
Platinum And Palladium Set To Surge As Gold Breaks Higher - 23rd Sep 20
Key Gold Ratios to Other Markets - 23rd Sep 20
Watch Before Upgrading / Buying RTX 3000, RDNA2 - CPU vs GPU Bottlenecks - 23rd Sep 20
Online Elliott Wave Markets Trading Course Worth $129 for FREE! - 22nd Sep 20
Gold Price Overboughtness Risk - 22nd Sep 20
Central Banking Cartel Promises ZIRP Until at Least 2023 - 22nd Sep 20
Stock Market Correction Approaching Initial Objective - 22nd Sep 20
Silver Bulls Will Be Handsomely Rewarded - 21st Sep 20
Fed Will Not Hike Rates For Years. Gold Should Like It - 21st Sep 20
US Financial Market Forecasts and Elliott Wave Analysis Resources - 21st Sep 20
How to Avoid Currency Exchange Risk during COVID - 21st Sep 20
Crude Oil – A Slight Move Higher Has Not Reversed The Bearish Trend - 20th Sep 20
Do This Instead Of Trying To Find The “Next Amazon” - 20th Sep 20
5 Significant Benefits of the MT4 Trading Platform for Forex Traders - 20th Sep 20
A Warning of Economic Collapse - 20th Sep 20
The Connection Between Stocks and the Economy is not What Most Investors Think - 19th Sep 20
A Virus So Deadly, The Government Has to Test You to See If You Have It - 19th Sep 20
Will Lagarde and Mnuchin Push Gold Higher? - 19th Sep 20
RTX 3080 Mania, Ebay Scalpers Crazy Prices £62,000 Trollers Insane Bids for a £649 GPU! - 19th Sep 20
A Greater Economic Depression For The 21st Century - 19th Sep 20
The United Floor in Stocks - 19th Sep 20
Mobile Gaming Market Trends And The Expected Future Developments - 19th Sep 20
The S&P 500 appears ready to correct, and that is a good thing - 18th Sep 20
It’s Go Time for Gold Price! Next Stop $2,250 - 18th Sep 20
Forget AMD RDNA2 and Buy Nvidia RTX 3080 FE GPU's NOW Before Price - 18th Sep 20
Best Back to School / University Black Face Masks Quick and Easy from Amazon - 18th Sep 20
3 Types of Loans to Buy an Existing Business - 18th Sep 20
How to tell Budgie Gender, Male or Female Sex for Young and Mature Parakeets - 18th Sep 20
Fasten Your Seatbelts Stock Market Make Or Break – Big Trends Ahead - 17th Sep 20
Peak Financialism And Post-Capitalist Economics - 17th Sep 20
Challenges of Working from Home - 17th Sep 20
Sheffield Heading for Coronavirus Lockdown as Covid Deaths Pass 432 - 17th Sep 20
What Does this Valuable Gold Miners Indicator Say Now? - 16th Sep 20
President Trump and Crimes Against Humanity - 16th Sep 20
Slow Economic Recovery from CoronaVirus Unlikely to Impede Strong Demand for Metals - 16th Sep 20
Why the Knives Are Out for Trump’s Fed Critic Judy Shelton - 16th Sep 20
Operation Moonshot: Get Ready for Millions of New COVAIDS Positives in the UK! - 16th Sep 20
Stock Market Approaching Correction Objective - 15th Sep 20
Look at This Big Reminder of Dot.com Stock Market Mania - 15th Sep 20
Three Key Principles for Successful Disruption Investors - 15th Sep 20
Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Warns of 10% Inflation - 15th Sep 20
Gold Price Reaches $2,000 Amid Dollar Depreciation - 15th Sep 20
GLD, IAU Big Gold ETF Buying MIA - 14th Sep 20
Why Bill Gates Is Betting Millions on Synthetic Biology - 14th Sep 20
Stock Market SPY Expectations For The Rest Of September - 14th Sep 20
Gold Price Gann Angle Update - 14th Sep 20
Stock Market Recovery from the Sharp Correction Goes On - 14th Sep 20
Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
The Silver Big Prize - 13th Sep 20
U.S. Shares Plunged. Is Gold Next? - 13th Sep 20
Why Are 7,500 Oil Barrels Floating on this London Lake? - 13th Sep 20
Sheffield 432 Covid-19 Deaths, Last City Centre Shop Before Next Lockdown - 13th Sep 20
Biden or Trump Will Keep The Money Spigots Open - 13th Sep 20
Gold And Silver Up, Down, Sideways, Up - 13th Sep 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Stock Market Predicts Donald Trump Victory

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Sep 11, 2016 - 04:42 AM GMT

By: Austin_Galt

Stock-Markets

Some of you know that I like to forecast fundamentals based on my view of the technicals. We have had success with this in the past predicting a No vote in the Greek referendum on the EU bailout when polls suggested the Yes vote would prevail and also recently predicting a Brexit Leave vote when a vote to Remain was clearly favoured by the polls.

I believe the markets have a sixth sense and wrote an article about this titled The Sixth Sense of Markets, produced on the 14th April 2016, which is available to view on my website.


So, what is the market’s sixth sense saying about the upcoming US presidential election?

Before we get to that, let’s briefly revise the short term technicals of the Dow to see how I view the market setting up before Americans go to the polls in November.

DOW DAILY CHART


The market got clobbered at the end of last week and many might think a big move down is already underway. Not me. I believe a 5 point broadening top is now in play with price about to put in a point 4 low before reversing back up and heading to one final marginal high – the final point 5 high.

Moves into point 4 lows are often impulsive and get the crowd thinking a downtrend is in force. This move down is certainly impulsive and fits perfectly the description of how a move into a point 4 low looks.

The Bollinger Bands show price is already trading below the lower band and I expect price to spring back up shortly.

I have drawn a Fibonacci Fan from the June 2016 low to all time high and what I believe to be the point 3 high. I favour the point 4 low to be around support from the 61.8% angle. Then price trades back up to put in the point 5 high around resistance from the 50% angle. This would also be a false break high.

The RSI is well into oversold territory while the MACD indicator shows the averages have diverged a bit so a rally now would certainly not surprise.

This view of the technicals could also be applied to the upcoming September Fed meeting in that because of my very short term bullish outlook I therefore expect interest rates to remain unchanged as a rate increase would have a negative effect on price.

So, let’s say this comes to pass and we get the final high in late September or early October. That means the downtrend will have begun as we go into the November election.

Now, a Hillary Clinton victory is viewed as positive for the stock market while a Donald Trump victory is viewed as negative. This makes sense as Clinton is the more predictable candidate while Trump is more unpredictable and if there is anything the market doesn’t like it is unpredictability which induces fear.

Ok, so let’s go to the monthly chart to see how I expect price to trade after the election and thus predict the winner of the US election.

DOW MONTHLY CHART



I am actually very bullish about the prospects for the stock market over the next few years. Before then, however, I believe a significant correction is set to take place which consolidates the move up off the 2016 low.

The Bollinger Bands show price is up around the upper band and I expect price to head back down to the lower band to put in a higher low.

I have drawn a Fibonacci Fan from the 2009 low to 2015 high. This shows the 23.6% angle providing support but I favour it to break shortly with the higher low to be around the next support area being the 38.2% angle.

The RSI has been in overbought territory and looks in need of a break while the MACD indicator appears to be starting to curl back down.

So, my view of the technicals is clear in expecting a top just before the US election and a significant move down after the election.

Therefore, given Trump is likely to have a short term negative impact on the stock market, my view of the technicals leads me to believe Donald Trump will win the election and be the next President of the United States.

Regardless of who wins, I am bullish the stock market over the longer term. A Trump victory would just provide a great opportunity to buy stocks at discounted prices. Given so, stock market bulls should relish the opportunity a Trump win will offer them. I actually believe Trump’s economic policies will be a positive factor for the stock market and that will eventually be reflected in price turning back up.

Now, Trump is not expected to win if the betting markets are any indication. Clinton is a clear favourite with the bookmakers while Trump is a clear outsider although his odds have been tightening.

However, just as the Greek No vote and the Brexit Leave vote were outsiders, it was my view of the stock market technicals going into each of those elections that led me to forecast the outsider would win. And so it is with Trump.

Also, adding to my confidence are two critical factors. Any political expert knows that elections are won by which way independents swing and how much of the base turns out.

Recent polls show Trump winning big with independents. In fact, a recent CNN poll showed Trump leading Clinton with independents by a massive 20 percentage points.

As for the base turning out, compare the puny turnout to Clinton rallies to the packed-to-the-rafters with lines around the block to get in to Trump rallies.

These two factors are not getting much play in the media but are clear evidence that a Trump win is well underestimated.

My expectation of a Trump win has nothing to do with my own personal political views. I don’t agree with everything that Trump says but I certainly support his right to say it especially in this world of political correctness gone mad.

I believe this election represents a choice between keeping the status quo corruption in place with Clinton or breaking it apart with Trump. Everything else is secondary. I also believe middle America has woken up to their corrupt political system and will turn out in large numbers to rectify it.

So, there it is folks.

My technical view - Donald Trump will win.

My personal view - Donald Trump is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to break the hold of a corrupt system that serves only those with money.

By Austin Galt

www.thevoodooanalyst.com 

Austin Galt is The Voodoo Analyst. I have studied charts for over 20 years and am currently a private trader. Several years ago I worked as a licensed advisor with a well known Australian stock broker. While there was an abundance of fundamental analysts, there seemed to be a dearth of technical analysts. My aim here is to provide my view of technical analysis that is both intriguing and misunderstood by many. I like to refer to it as the black magic of stock market analysis.

Email - info@thevoodooanalyst.com 

My website is www.thevoodooanalyst.com 

© 2015 Copyright  The Voodoo Analyst - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Austin Galt Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules