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Urgent Stock Market Message

Donald Trump Failing to Recover After 1st Debate Hillary Shimmy Loss - Betfair Betting Market

ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Sep 30, 2016 - 06:54 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat


The betting markets tend to be better short-term gauge for reactions to political events such as the debates. In which respect Donald Trump is showing NO signs of recovering from Monday's debate loss, instead the Betfair market odds have continued to widen from 2.88 (Trump) / 1.57 Hillary just prior to the start of the debate at 2am BST, which following the debate at 4am had widened to 3.35 (Trump) / 1.44 Hillary) and now 3 full days later the betfair market price is 3.45 (Trump) / 1.45 Hillary. Thus Hillary is continuing to capitalise on Trumps debate loss by widening her lead further, which means whatever post debate strategy Trumps team is deploying is just not working!

Though of course the betting markets could once more turn out to be just as wrong as they were for the UK's EU referendum.

Whilst there's marginally better news where the opinion polls are concerned as prior to the debate Hillary was on 44% against Trump on 41%. Whilst today Hillary stands on 44.5% against Trump on 42%, so a 0.5% narrowing of Hillary's lead. Though opinion polls in my opinion are pretty much worthless, always weighted and skewed in favour of those commissioning the polls.

The next debate is on Sunday 9th October with the third and final debate on October 19th.

See the following video for why Donald Trump lost the 1st debate to Hillary Clinton:

Trump's debate loss boiled down to "tax, birth and pigs", so it's no wonder Hillary was shimmying.

However, they say to know who really won a debate you have to watch the debate with the sound off, whilst its not possible to watch 90 minutes, but even a few minutes of watching the debate with the sound down can result in a completely different result! For it's the old Kennedy / Nixon phenomena, where those who listened to the debate on Radio concluded that Nixon won, whilst those who watched it on TV concluded Kennedy won. So who wins if the the sound is turned down? See for yourself in this 3 minute video -

As for a forecast for who most probably will win to become the next US President, watch:

By Nadeem Walayat

Copyright © 2005-2016 (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


30 Sep 16, 19:38
Trump lost to Clinton

Hillary Clinton's attacks didn't miss the target, while she was shrugging Donald Trump's attacks off. Trump kept expalinig himself or telling how good he is, which was boringly repetitive. On many occasions, Trump was astonishingly clumsy. For exaple, Clinton said twice (if I remember correctly) that what Trump is proposing led to the big recession that they are recovering from. Trump said nothing. For Christ's sake, she is a socialist, and as a businessman, Trump could sink Clinton by properly responding to that statement.

Generally, the debate was very very average, or maybe that's the accurate level for the American public, the most dumbed down nation on the planet?

Is Trump going to do a better job next time? He claims that he won the debate. If he believes so, it should be worrying.

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