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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

How Trump Can Win the U.S. Presidential Election After 1st Debate Meltdown

ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Oct 01, 2016 - 02:17 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

So Trump lost the 1st debate, it was not even close and Trump's statements following the debate have not helped trigger any recovery as going on the offensive against for instance with his 'fat' remarks against a former Miss Universe that even had Trump backers grimacing or claiming winning in fictitious opinion polls has just resulted in a greater erosion of Trumps chances of winning as illustrated by the betting markets that have continued to trend in Clinton's direction all week.


Whilst the opinion polls show little shift post debate with Hillary on 44% and Trump on 41%. However, the betting markets such as betfair have witnessed a steady fall in the probability for a Trump election win. For instance just prior to the debate Trump had rallied to his best standing of 2.88, immediately following the debate that had widened to 3.35, whilst the latest price now has Trump trading on 3.85 which converts into just a 23% probability of winning the election, down from a peak of about 35%.

US Presidential Election 2016 Betfair Market

Date Time (BST) Hillary Trump Comments
25th Sept   1.58 3.05 Trending in Trumps favour
27th Sept 2am 1.57 2.88 Trump peaks just prior to the start of the 1st debate
27th Sept 4am 1.44 3.35 Just after the 1st debate confirming Trump lost.
30th Sept 3am 1.45 3.45 Odds continuing to move against Trump election win
30th Sept 9pm 1.39 3.75 Accelerating meltdown of Trump odds
1st Oct 2pm 1.37 3.85 Still little sign of Trump recovery

See the following video for why Donald Trump lost the 1st debate to Hillary Clinton:

What Trump Needs to do to Win the Election

The next debate is on Sunday 9th October so what Trump now needs to do is what he clearly did not do for the 1st debate which is to PREPARE for it! The second debate will likely be his last chance, another similar loss to Hillary would probably mark the end of this election hopes.

So the first thing Trump needs to do now is to start preparing for the second debate, with the aim of at least drawing with Hillary, which means not attacking Bill Clinton's infidelities that would engender sympathy for Hillary and for which I am sure Hillary has a well rehearsed retort.

Secondly, he needs understand that he has to stop attacking whole sections of the population such as women, as he is putting off more than half (53%) of electorate from voting for him!

Thirdly, Trump needs to learn to control his mouth, to think before he speaks instead of letting it literally run rabid. In fact at the next debate he is probably better off not opening his mouth at all then a repeat of what happened in the 1st debate!

Fourthly, he needs to stop bragging about himself, of how wealthy he is and great at x,y,z, the public are getting tired of his "I am really rich" and it's "smart not to pay taxes" sales pitch and instead Trump needs to rely on more scripted speeches and focus on the electorate rather then himself. So no more 3am twitter tantrums!

Fifthly, he needs to remember why BrExit happened and focus on his anti-establishment message, that is the only thing that could win Trump the election and thus he should stop deviating from this central message by for instance attacking a former 'fat' Miss Universe! Instead focus on being the anti-establishment candidate for Hillary most definitely IS the establishment candidate.

Sixthly, he needs to perpetuate a message of HOPE rather than FEAR, quit publically threatening America's NATO allies, and instead focus on the hopes of ordinary americans, after all HOPE and CHANGE is what won Obama the last two elections.

And lastly he needs to keep his aim wholly focused on going on the offensive against Hillary Clinton's numerous failures whilst in office.

And that is how Trump could win the election as the anti-establishment change candidate.

However in the interest of balance, Trumps Achilles heel is his Trump organisation businesses, for they are mostly privately owned so lack financial transparency, and he is repeatedly failing to publish his tax returns, thus whilst he may as he says have a net worth of $10 billion, however he could just as well have a net worth of zero! Then there is the issue of conflicts of interests as a President Trump would stuff his cabinet with fellow billionaires who would pillage the american economy in their own financial interests.

As for my forecast for who most probably will win to become the next US President which is not based on the polls or odds then watch:

The bottom line is that the election is not over until the fat lady sings.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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