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Why 95% of Traders Fail

Trump Support Crashes to New Low of 6.4 on Betfair Odds Betting Market

Politics / US Presidential Election 2016 Oct 11, 2016 - 04:06 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

Trump's 2nd debate bounce that had seen Trump rally on Betfair's betting market from a low of 6.2 just prior to the debate to a post debate high of 4.8 has already apparently evaporated with Trump support literally crashing to a new low of 6.4 (current 6.2) as punters pile into placing bets on Hillary Clinton to win who now stands at a Betfair market price of just 1.21, her highest standing ever, which translates into just a £21 potential profit on every £100 bet, against Trump where every £100 converts into a potential £520 profit!


US Presidential Election 2016 Betfair Market

Date Time (BST) Hillary Trump Comments
25th Sept   1.58 3.05 Trending in Trumps favour
27th Sept 2am 1.57 2.88 Trump peaks just prior to the start of the 1st debate
27th Sept 4am 1.44 3.35 Just after the 1st debate confirming Trump lost.
30th Sept 3am 1.45 3.45 Odds continuing to move against Trump election win
30th Sept 9pm 1.39 3.75 Accelerating meltdown of Trump odds
1st Oct 2pm 1.37 3.85 Still little sign of Trump recovery
4th Oct 9pm 1.35 4.05 Trump continues losing trend
5th Oct 5am 1.36 3.90 Pence wins VP debate
7th Oct 5pm 1.38 3.8 Trump recovery continues
8th Oct 12pm 1.32 4.8 Effect of leaked audio tape of Trump Groping women
9th Oct 8pm 1.25 5.7 Trump campaign in free fall
10th Oct 4.30am 1.27 5.2 Trump wins 2nd Debate.
11th Oct 4pm 1.21 6.2 Trump crashes to new low of 6.4

Whilst the opinion polls have also finally started to shift after being stuck at Hillary on 45% and Trump on 41%, with the latest averages Putting Hillary on 45% whilst Trump has drifted to 39%, a 6% gap.

So what's going wrong with the Trump campaign ? We'll it's basically that he continues to preach just to the converted, that and the string of leaks from his tax return £1 billion loss to the lewd grab women's p****y's tape. This whilst in my recent video analysis I gave several suggestions of what Trump could do to reverse his losing streak going into the second debate and where I warned of his achilles heel of his tax returns and the Trump organisation that lacked financial transparency which if revealed could blow his chances of winning the election as illustrated by the subsequent NYT story. Whilst step 2 was to stop attacking women and minorities none of which he is so far implementing!

My forecast of several weeks ago concluded that Trump at that time stood a chance of winning to become the next US President, which I said I would revisit closer to election day given the inability of Trump to control his math, and given that which has subsequently coming to pass I will definitely be doing so, though it does not take a rocket scientist to see the direction of trend in favour of Hillary, so by the time I come around to my forecast update before the end of October by then it may be obvious to all, even Trump that he has lost.

And for the reality of what a now diminishing Trump Presidency would actually look like see -

Also check out my new machine intelligence investing series -

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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