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Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Donald Trump Bounces Going into 3rd and Final US Presidential Election Debate

ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Oct 20, 2016 - 01:10 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

Trumps campaign has been sinking like a stone ever since he lost the 1st debate to Hillary which was soon followed by a barrage of near daily bad news stories across the mainstream media that lately prompted Trump to proclaim that there was an establishment conspiracy to fix the election for Hillary.


Whilst the opinion polls paid for by vested interests should always be taken with a giant pinch of salt, nevertheless have always put Hillary on a commanding lead and the past 3 or so weeks has seen that lead expand further to put Hillary on 47% and Donald Trump on a distant 39%, which on face of it appears to be an insurmountable gap.

US Presidential Election 2016 Betfair Market

However the bookies, a usually far more accurate measure than vested interest opinion polling, have seen the Trumps standing literally collapse as the odds have relentlessly climbed from their peak of 2.88 (betfair) just hours before the to the p-ussygate low of 6.6 against Hillary on 1.19.

Date Time (BST) Hillary Trump Comments
25th Sept   1.58 3.05 Trending in Trumps favour
27th Sept 2am 1.57 2.88 Trump peaks just prior to the start of the 1st debate
27th Sept 4am 1.44 3.35 Just after the 1st debate confirming Trump lost.
30th Sept 3am 1.45 3.45 Odds continuing to move against Trump election win
30th Sept 9pm 1.39 3.75 Accelerating meltdown of Trump odds
1st Oct 2pm 1.37 3.85 Still little sign of Trump recovery
4th Oct 9pm 1.35 4.05 Trump continues losing trend
5th Oct 5am 1.36 3.90 Pence wins VP debate
7th Oct 5pm 1.38 3.8 Trump recovery continues
8th Oct 12pm 1.32 4.8 Effect of leaked audio tape of Trump Groping women
9th Oct 8pm 1.25 5.7 Trump campaign in free fall
10th Oct 4.30am 1.27 5.2 Trump wins 2nd Debate.
11th Oct 4pm 1.21 6.2 Trump crashes to new low of 6.4
12th Oct 2am 1.20 6.4 No end in sign to Trump collapse
15th Oct 4pm 1.19 6.6 Trump on life support, may decide to abandon campaign.
20th Oct 1am 1.21 5.8 Trump on life support, may decide to abandon campaign.

The most recent odds, just an hour before the third and final debate show a small bounce for Trump who now stands on 5.8 against Hillary on 1.21, a small bounce that could more than evaporate post debate. But if Donald Trump has any chance of turning his on life support campaign around then it has to be at this final debate, else it's all over, the mountain is just going to be too great to climb with less than 3 weeks to go.

Whilst my most recent analysis of 12th of October, with 26 days to go that despite everything pointing to Hillary easily winning the election, the pollsters, bookies, pundits and forecasters ALL saying Hillary is going to win, that concluded why it could be not quite over yet -

So here we stand on the 20th of October with less than 3 weeks, with little sign of significant movement. So whilst I will come back to a forecast conclusion towards the end of October, however Trump's campaign IS literally on life support, and it's going to take a miracle to undo the damage done during during the past 3 weeks, so if this trend persists then by the end of October even Trump may by then have thrown in the towel and no longer be actively campaigning to win the election but rather seeking revenge on the Republican party for betraying their candidate.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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