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Stock Market Same Old Boredom....Elections Coming Up...

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Nov 01, 2016 - 02:01 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman


The market did today what it seems to do most every day. Gap and then go nowhere for the rest of the day. The market seems to waiting on the elections to come and go with the hope that Clinton will win only for the fact that it means The Dove, known as Yellen, will remain in place. It also wants deadlocks in the house and senate. However, before we get to the elections we get to look in on how the economy is doing on both manufacturing and services and then we'll gander a look at the Jobs Report on Friday. The fed is in between all this nonsense. Tomorrow it all starts with the ISM Manufacturing Report.

This account for approximately 20% of our economy. Manufacturing has been weak for a very long time and not showing any real signs of improving. Maybe we'll get a nice surprise tomorrow, but the trend is clearly not in its favor. Yellen will announce she's not raising rates on Wednesday and then we get the more important ISM Services Report on Thursday. This makes up approximately 80% of our economy. This, too, has been weak and trending lower overall. This would help the fed expedite the process of one more rate hike, if it would show some decent improvement.

It has the occasional move higher out of the blue, but it has not been sustainable in that direction. Yellen is always talking about the need to see consistent improvement in these important numbers before raising rates. The market wants to see a hike as the fed is so behind the real world, but bad numbers could prevent the much-anticipated rate hike come December. Then we get the Jobs Report on Friday, which is also key to her deciding when to get moving on the next hike. These reports are all very important, especially services and the Jobs Report. It won't be a boring week on the report and fed side of things, but it will likely remain very boring on the trading side of the market. We need the elections to come and go before we get some fireworks.

The market has gone nowhere for two years. It has gone nowhere in its current pattern for nearly six months. We broke out over 2134 on the S&P 500 on July 11, and then refused to impulse higher. Bad sign that eventually came home to roost. We simply don't move. I can't believe how thin the trading range has been for so long, other than to say if it weren't for the fed then we'd be in big trouble, since there's absolutely nothing good happening on any important front. Earnings stink. Valuations stink. Economic news stinks. The fed keeps the bubble alive, however, and that's all that matters. I will tell you this, if the elections come and go and we're still trading between S&P 500 2104 and 2194 then you may want to just give it up. I would imagine that has to do the trick one way or the other.

In this market, less is definitely more. The more you do, the worse you'll likely feel about your portfolio. Patience is sadly the only way to proceed, until we get a break one way or the other. Let's see if the economic news this week does something unexpected. I doubt it, but we can hope.



Jack Steiman is author of ( ). Former columnist for, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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© 2016

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

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