Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - P_Radomski_CFA
2.Fed Balance Sheet QE4EVER - Stock Market Trend Forecast Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK House Prices, Immigration, and Population Growth Mega Trend Forecast - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Gold and Silver Precious Metals Pot Pourri - Rambus_Chartology
5.The Exponential Stocks Bull Market - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.America's 30 Blocks of Holes - James_Quinn
8.US Presidential Cycle and Stock Market Trend 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Dear Stocks Bull Market: Happy 10 Year Anniversary! - Troy_Bombardia
10.Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Stock Market Pause Should Extend - 21st April 19
Why Gold Has Been the Second Best Asset Class for the Last 20 Years - 21st April 19
Could Taxing the Rich Solve Income Inequality? - 21st April 19
Stock Market Euphoria Stunts Gold - 20th April 19
Is Political Partisanship Killing America? - 20th April 19
Trump - They Were All Lying - 20th April 19
The Global Economy Looks Disturbingly Like Japan Before Its “Lost Decade” - 19th April 19
Growing Bird of Paradise Strelitzia Plants, Pruning and Flower Guide Over 4 Years - 19th April 19
S&P 500’s Downward Reversal or Just Profit-Taking Action? - 18th April 19
US Stock Markets Setting Up For Increased Volatility - 18th April 19
Intel Corporation (INTC) Bullish Structure Favors More Upside - 18th April 19
Low New Zealand Inflation Rate Increases Chance of a Rate Cut - 18th April 19
Online Grocery Shopping Will Go Mainstream as Soon as This Year - 17th April 19
America Dancing On The Crumbling Precipice - 17th April 19
Watch The Financial Sector For The Next Stock Market Topping Pattern - 17th April 19
How Central Bank Gold Buying is Undermining the US Dollar - 17th April 19
Income-Generating Business - 17th April 19
INSOMNIA 64 Birmingham NEC Car Parking Info - 17th April 19
Trump May Regret His Fed Takeover Attempt - 16th April 19
Downside Risk in Gold & Gold Stocks - 16th April 19
Stock Market Melt-Up or Roll Over?…A Look At Two Scenarios - 16th April 19
Is the Stock Market Making a Head and Shoulders Topping Pattern? - 16th April 19
Will Powell’s Dovish Turn Support Gold? - 15th April 19
If History Is Any Indication, Stocks Should Rally Until the Fall of 2020 - 15th April 19
Stocks Get Closer to Last Year’s Record High - 15th April 19
Oil Price May Be Setup For A Move Back to $50 - 15th April 19
Stock Market Ready For A Pause! - 15th April 19
Shopping for Bargain Souvenirs in Fethiye Tuesday Market - Turkey Holidays 2019 - 15th April 19
From US-Sino Talks to New Trade Wars, Weakening Global Economic Prospects - 14th April 19
Stock Market Indexes Race For The New All-Time High - 14th April 19
Why Gold Price Will “Just Explode… in the Blink of an Eye” - 14th April 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top 10 AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

Hillary Polls Lead Slumps to +1.3%, Trump on Target to WIN US Election 2016

ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Nov 04, 2016 - 06:24 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

We are now less than 4 days away from when the polls open on Tuesday 8th November, Trump and Clinton and crews have been busy shuttling around the key battleground states to bolster their votes as the election boils down to who can win at least 270 electoral college votes. For instance Florida with its key 29 votes is literally sitting on a 50/50 knife edge, a must win state for Trump! Other 50/50 states are North Carolina (15 votes), with another 9 states having poll leads of 3% or less totaling 82 electoral college votes, so near 130 electoral college votes are in play enough for either Trump or Hillary to win.


The average of the national opinion polls continue to tighten to now put Hillary just +1.3% ahead of Trump, which compares against 1.7% yesterday and 2.2% the day before, thus implying near parity by election day! Now compare this to just 10 days ago when Hillary was +6% ahead of Trump!

As for the betting markets, Trump shows a marginal improvement at 3.45 from 3.5 yesterday, against 3.75 the day before. What this means is if one placed a £100 bet on Trump today then if he won that would result in a profit of £245 (+stake). Whilst a £100 bet for Hillary would yield a £42 profit if she won, which illustrates that the betting markets remain strongly skewed in Hillary's favour.

And what about the so called analysts such as Nate Silver's http://fivethirtyeight.com site, what's there current stance this late in the game?

That's right, still clearly backing Hillary to win on 66%, though they do tend to be very volatile i.e. have ranged between 65% and 88% for Hillary during the past 2 weeks! Yes, that's right they had Hillary at about 88% less than 2 weeks ago!

Current state of other forecasters:

New York Times (4th November 2016) - Hillary 85%, Trump 15%

Princeton Election Consortium - Clinton 317, Trump 209 (270 winning post)

http://www.electionprojection.com (3rd Nov 2016) - Hillary 48.5%, Trump 46.5%

Moody's Analytics model (1st Nov 2016) - Hillary 332, Trump 206 (270 winning post).

http://pollyvote.com/ (4th Nov 2016) - Hillary 323, Trump 215

https://www.predictit.org (4th Nov 2016) - Clinton 71c, Trump 34c ($1 winner).

However, things are much worse for Hillary than her polls lead and polls analyst forecasters imply, and definitely then the betting markets as my analysis has consistently iterated that Trump does not ever have to be in the lead in the opinion polls to actually WIN the election due to the BrExit factor that allows for a 3-4% swing against the opinion polls in the actual election result as a consequence of Donald Trump being America's first anti-establishment candidate in perhaps at least the past 40 years who I expect to capitalise on the BrExit factor that shocked the British establishment back in June 2016 due to the fact that the pollsters, political pundits and betting markets all got the result very badly wrong, so instead of REMAIN winning by 4% as had been the expectation right into the close of the polls, REMAIN actually LOST by 4%! THE BREXIT FACTOR, one of the British people giving the establishment elite a very bloody nose and so is the case for THIS US Presidential election.

25 Sep 2016 - US Presidential Election Forecast 2016 - Trump Riding BrExit Wave into the White House

And here is my most recent video analysis on the prospects for Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton winning the US Presidential Election 2016 posted on 2nd November:

The bottom line is that the POLLS are WRONG, the BOOKIES are WRONG, JUST as they were WRONG for BREXIT, Just as they were WRONG for the May 2015 UK General Election, just as they were WRONG for the Scottish Sept 2014 Referendum, and now will be found to be WRONG for the 2016 US Presidential Election!

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecasts.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules