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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Trump's Top 5 Target States: Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Nevada in Rigged Election

ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Nov 08, 2016 - 06:08 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

There's about 5 hours to go until the polls start to close in the craziest, zaniest Presidential election in living memory, that which pitted reality TV star 'billionaire' Donald Trump against career Washington insider Hillary Clinton. With Hillary being the clear favourite to win, so here are what I deem to be Trumps Top 5 target swing states based on the last 72 hours of Trump campaigning, those states he has been targeting in an attempt to flip to red and win the US Presidential election.


Trumps target states in order of importance.

1. Florida - Trump must win, polls are near 50/50

2. Michigan - Potential Brexit state where Hillary currently leads by 4.2%

3. North Carolina - Must Win, Hillary leads by 0.6%

4. New Hampshire - Another key Brexit state where Hillary leads by 3.6%

5. Nevada - Hillary leads by 1%

Of the 5 listed Trump needs has to win Florida, and at least 3 of the other 4 states to stand any chance of winning the election.

The Brexit Swing States

What the national polls don't accurately represent is the real election battle which is taking place amongst some 9 BrExit swing states totaling 108 electoral college votes. Presently, based on a minimum 4% polls advantage the electoral college map breaks down into a tally for Hillary Clinton of 239 votes thus requiring just 31 to win, whilst Donald Trump based on the state polls has 191 electoral votes in the bag though still requiring a sizeable 79 to win.

However, what the pollsters are missing is what I termed as the 'BrExit Factor' that allows for a 3-4% swing AGAINST the opinion polls in the actual election result as a consequence of Donald Trump being America's first anti-establishment candidate in perhaps the past 40 years who I expect to capitalise on the BrExit factor that shocked the British establishment back in June 2016 due to the fact that the pollsters, political pundits and the betting markets all got that result very badly wrong.

My forecast as of 26th September concluding that Trump should win as a consequence of the BrExit factor.

25 Sep 2016 - US Presidential Election Forecast 2016 - Trump Riding BrExit Wave into the White House

And my most recent update of 2nd November 2016 confirmed expectations that Trump would win :

My most recent video analysis pointed out that in this election the critical factor is the Latino vote in Florida, a vote that Trump has done is utmost to put off from voting from him, hence the collapse of the Republican Latino vote that my most recent video analysis covers:

In terms of the polls, Hillary continues to benefit from the FBI's abrupt u-turn, with Hillary Clinton further pulling further away by currently standing at +3.2%, up from +2.9% some 12 hours ago, and against +1.8% yesterday and +1.7% the day before.

Source: Real Clear Politics

The surge in Hillary's FBI political intervention induced polls lead is reflected across the opinion polls based forecasters such as Nate Silvers site which currently forecasts a 71% probability for Hillary winning the election up from 67% yesterday, against Trump trailing on 29%.

http://fivethirtyeight.com

Though Nate's forecast is at the lower end as the likes of the New York Times are giving Hillary a 85% probability of winning -

New York Times (8th November 2016) - Hillary 85%, Trump 15%

Princeton Election Consortium - Clinton 323, Trump 215 (270 winning post)

http://www.electionprojection.com (8th Nov 2016) - Hillary 49.2%, Trump 45.8%

Moody's Analytics model (1st Nov 2016) - Hillary 332, Trump 206 (270 winning post).

http://pollyvote.com/ (8th Nov 2016) - Hillary 323, Trump 215

https://www.predictit.org (8th Nov 2016) - Clinton 84c, Trump 20c ($1 winner).

As for the betting markets, well after crashing yesterday to 6 again from a peak of 3.45 of just a few days ago, are currently trading better at 5.7, after been better at 5.4 earlier today. What this means is if one placed a £100 bet on Trump today then if he won that would result in a profit of £470 (+stake). Whilst a £100 bet on Hillary would yield a profit of just £21 if she won, which illustrates that the betting markets are strongly discounting a Hillary Clinton win, which if does not happen would represent a huge shock result.

The bottom line is that when one factors in the BrExit factor then despite the surge in the Latino vote to well beyond that of the last election, then this election is still not quite over yet and Trump could still win, albeit the last 48 hours have definitely NOT been good for Trump that has seen Hillary's national and state polls lead move by +1.5% in her favour! A huge and potentially election changing last minute move largely as a consequence of the FBI's political intervention Sunday afternoon that feeds into Donald Trumps narrative of this election being rigged, after all you only need to look at the response of Hillary's Wall Street backers who have been sending the Dow soaring following the FBI announcement.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecasts.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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