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Why 95% of Traders Fail

Betting Markets Confirm Donald Trump Has Won / Wins U.S. Presidential Election 2016

ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Nov 09, 2016 - 03:18 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

The betting markets that following the close of the polls leapt to discount a Hillary Clinton win who by 1am (UK) Polls+1hr, had Trump trading on an impossible to win 12 with Hillary Clinton on 1.09 as illustrated below, that had the mainstream media pundits, pollsters and other analysts on the likes of CNN slapping themselves on the back for having correctly called the election as the results appeared to be turning out as they expected would, well.....


Instead now barely 2 hours on the position has completely flipped and the results and betting markets show that the likes of Nate Silver and his site have got another election wrong, just as the all the pollsters have and betting markets have, as the latest price at 3am putting Trump in a clear lead on 1.69 to Hillary now on 2.4 thus finally converging with my forecast that TRUMP would WIN this election!

My only regret is that I did not have the balls to take the bookies at 12 on Trump, still the Trump positions I HAVE accumulated todate ensure that Trumps election win as a persistent rank outsider will prove highly profitable as my Betfair positions record illustrates:

My forecast as of 26th September concluding that Trump should win as a consequence of the BrExit factor.

25 Sep 2016 - US Presidential Election Forecast 2016 - Trump Riding BrExit Wave into the White House

And my most recent update of 2nd November 2016 confirmed expectations that Trump would win :

My most recent video analysis pointed out that in this election the critical factor was what was happening in Florida:

The bottom line is that the BrExit Factor WARNED that the polls are wrong to the degree of between 3-4%. Which meant whilst Hillary was +3.2% ahead before the polls closed. Trump could STILL WIN which has been the message of EVERY article and video I have posted for the past 2 months!

Whilst the clueless that comprise 95% of that which most read and watch have been forecasting right up until the polls closed that Hillary would win:

Stock Market

The Dow closed sharply higher for a second day as Hillary's Wall Street backers discount the victory of their bought and paid for candidate for President

Pollsters

Today Hillary Clinton further pulled away by standing at +3.2%, against +1.8% yesterday and +1.7% the day before.

Source: Real Clear Politics

Pollster Analysts

The surge in Hillary's FBI political intervention induced polls lead is reflected across the opinion polls based forecasters such as Nate Silvers site which currently forecasts a 71% probability for Hillary winning the election up from 67% yesterday, against Trump trailing on 29%.

http://fivethirtyeight.com

Though Nate's forecast is at the lower end as the likes of the New York Times are giving Hillary a 85% probability of winning -

New York Times (8th November 2016) - Hillary 85%, Trump 15%

Princeton Election Consortium - Clinton 323, Trump 215 (270 winning post)

http://www.electionprojection.com (8th Nov 2016) - Hillary 49.2%, Trump 45.8%

Moody's Analytics model (1st Nov 2016) - Hillary 332, Trump 206 (270 winning post).

http://pollyvote.com/ (8th Nov 2016) - Hillary 323, Trump 215

https://www.predictit.org (8th Nov 2016) - Clinton 84c, Trump 20c ($1 winner).

Betting Markets

As for the betting markets, well after crashing yesterday to 6 from a peak of 3.45 of just a few days ago, earlier today the price had bounced to 5.4, but now has worsened again to now stand at a new low of 6.6! What this means is if one placed a £100 bet on Trump today then if he won that would result in a profit of £560 (+stake). Whilst a £100 bet on Hillary would yield a profit of just £16 if she won, which illustrates that the betting markets are strongly discounting a Hillary Clinton win, which if does not happen would represent a huge shock result.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecasts.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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