Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Investing in the METAVERSE Stocks Universe - 8th Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Expect 15-20% Returns For 2022 - 8th Dec 21
US Dollar Still Has the Green Light - 8th Dec 21
Stock Market Topping Process Roadmap - 8th Dec 21
The Lithium Breakthrough That Could Transform The Mining Industry - 8th Dec 21
VR and Gaming Becomes the Metaverse - 7th Dec 21
How to Read Your Smart Meter - Economy 7, Day and Night Rate Readings SMETS2 EDF - 7th Dec 21
For Profit or for Loss: 4 Tips for Selling ASX Shares - 7th Dec 21
INTEL Bargain Teck Stocks Trading at 15.5% Discount Sale - 7th Dec 21
US Bonds Yield Curve is not currently an inflationist’s friend - 7th Dec 21
Omicron COVID Variant-Possible Strong Stock Market INDU & TRAN Rally - 7th Dec 21
The New Tech That Could Take Tesla To $2 Trillion - 7th Dec 21
S&P 500 – Is a 5% Correction Enough? - 6th Dec 21
Global Stock Markets It’s Do-Or-Die Time - 6th Dec 21
Hawks Triumph, Doves Lose, Gold Bulls Cry! - 6th Dec 21
How Stock Investors Can Cash in on President Biden’s new Climate Plan - 6th Dec 21
The Lithium Tech That Could Send The EV Boom Into Overdrive - 6th Dec 21
How Stagflation Effects Stocks - 5th Dec 21
Bitcoin FLASH CRASH! Cryptos Blood Bath as Exchanges Run Stops, An Early Christmas Present for Some? - 5th Dec 21
TESCO Pre Omicron Panic Christmas Decorations Festive Shop 2021 - 5th Dec 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 4th Dec 21
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space - 4th Dec 21
Don’t Get Yourself Into a Bull Trap With Gold - 4th Dec 21
GOLD HAS LOTS OF POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE - 4th Dec 21
4 Tips To Help You Take Better Care Of Your Personal Finances- 4th Dec 21
What Is A Golden Cross Pattern In Trading? - 4th Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - Part 2 - 3rd Dec 21
Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place - 3rd Dec 21
The Masters of the Universe and Gold - 3rd Dec 21
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions - 3rd Dec 21
Will the Glasgow Summit (COP26) Affect Energy Prices? - 3rd Dec 21
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Macroeconomic Cycles & Demographics - A Fuse, An Explosive and The Igniting Catalyst

Economics / Demographics Dec 02, 2016 - 10:21 AM GMT

By: Gordon_T_Long

Economics

Investors need to focus on the two key long term structural changes now underway which are going to ignite destructive global dislocations through early 2020. To better understand why this is going to occur we need to place them in context by first examining the major economic cycles currently underway.

Harry Dent's Macroeconomic Cycles & Demographics

This initial cycle chart is from an in-depth discussion I had with Harry Dent earlier this year. Since leaving Harvard, Harry has spent most of his adult working life  studying demographics and cycles.


An ominous tell tale is that the four cycles he most closely follows are all presently headed down or flat!

Hierarchy of Macroeconomic Cycles

Dent attributes this to; the demographics of the baby boom generation, their spending habits as they enter retirement and the overall falling birth rates in the developed economies.

His work suggests the cycles don't reverse until the early '20's.

Martin Armstrong's "Economic Confidence Model"

Another well respected cycles analyst is Martin Armstrong who I additionally interviewed to discuss his highly regarded Economic Confidence Model. This cycle is based on a very long cycle of human history and civilization. It currently shows, according to Armstrong (see below), that economic conditions have been deteriorating since 2015.75 (Sept 2015) and will persist through to the beginning of 2020 (2020.05).

The Economic Confidence Model

The Kondratieff Long Cycle

Another very well followed and researched cycle is the Kondratieff Long Cycle. This approximate 55 year or "generational"cycle is also suggesting that historically we should presently be headed lower into the "Kondratieff Winter" part of the four season cycle. The "Winter" cycle has been somewhat delayed as the debt & credit levels have not yet headed lower which they historically did during the last cycles when economies were operating under the gold standard and the major global currencies were not "fiat".

Kondratieff Cycle

So what can we conclude other than it seems all the cycle theory and analysis indicates good times are not likely in front of us through early 2020?

Let's consider the analysis of my Macro Analyst co-host Charles Hugh Smith who recently published on the subject and together we explored further in our most recent Macro Analytics video.

Peter Turchin's "Ages Of Discord"

Charles writes in "Now Is The Winter Of Our Discontent: An Era Of Rising Discord"

Do we control the slide into disorder and the emergence of a new order? The short answer is no: the forces at work are systemic and structural, and not controllable with the usual political/economic tools.

Historian Peter Turchin explores historical cycles of social disintegration and integration in his new book Ages of Discord.

Turchin proposes a model of rising discord that eventually leads to a new cycle of cooperation and compares the expected result with historical data. He finds 25-year cycles that combine into roughly 50-year cycles, comparable (though not identical with) Kondratieff's proposed economic cycles (see chart below). These 50-year cycles are part of longer 150 to 200-year cycles that move from cooperation through an age of discord and disintegration to a new era of cooperation.

This work draws upon his previous books, including War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires, which I referenced in Following in Ancient Rome's Footsteps: Moral Decay, Rising Wealth Inequality (September 30, 2015) and The Lesson of Empires: Once Privilege Limits Social Mobility, Collapse Is Inevitable (April 18, 2016).

These long cycles parallel the cyclical analysis of David Hackett Fischer, whose masterwork The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History I've referenced many times over the years, most recently in We've Entered an Era of Rising Instability and Uncertainty (July 18, 2016).

Turchin's model identifies three primary forces in these cycles:

1. An over-supply of labor that suppresses real (inflation-adjusted) wages

2. An overproduction of essentially parasitic Elites

3. A deterioration in central state finances (over-indebtedness, decline in tax revenues, increase in state dependents, fiscal burdens of war, etc.)

These combine to influence the broader social mood, which is characterized in eras of discord by fragmented loyalty to self-serving special interests (disintegration) and in eras of cooperation by a desire and willingness to cooperate and compromise for the good of the entire society (integration).

Rising discord can be quantified in a Political Stress Index. Do we find evidence of Turchin's disintegrative forces in the present era?

1. Stagnating real wages due to oversupply of labor: check.

2. Overproduction of parasitic Elites: check.

3. Deterioration in central state finances: check.

Is it any wonder that political stress, however you want to measure it, is rising?

Cycles are the result of the interaction of complex, non-linear dynamics, and so they are not entirely predictable in terms of pinpointing the exact moment of crisis or the outcome of a systemic crisis.

If we study Turchin's model and Fischer's work on Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History, it becomes increasingly difficult to believe central planning policy tweaks can ensure a permanent extension of cooperation and prosperity.

Kondratieff Cycle - Wholesale Prices

Turchin's thesis seems to add some explanation as well as somewhat integrating the popular cycles we initially referenced.

Socionomics

The recent emergence of "Socionomics", spear headed by Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave renown also sheds light on the root of these overlapping cycles.

Socionomics is a field of study conducted under the hypothesis that waves of social mood motivate the character of social actions.

What is social mood? Social mood is a shared mental state among humans that arises from social interaction. Social mood predisposes individuals in the group toward emotions, beliefs and actions. It fluctuates constantly in a fractal pattern. It is unconscious, unremembered and endogenously regulated.

How long has socionomics been around? Robert Prechter began developing the idea in the 1970s, and it first reached a mass audience in a 1985 cover article in Barron’s. Since then, researchers have applied the hypothesis to explain events including election results, trends in popular culture, the timing of epidemics and pandemics, the emergence of prohibition movements, and financial manias and crashes.

The Socionomic Institute illustrates that:

  • Political Correctness lives and dies with Social Mood,

Political Correctness lives and dies with Social Mood

  • Negative Social Mood has polarized America and majorities have deeply negative views of other parties,

Negative Social Mood

  • Political Polarization has exploded since 2000

Political Polarization has Exploded since 2000

This leads us to conclude that Political Polarization, lack of cooperation, rebellion against political correctness are all presently manifesting themselves into a rejection of the status quo, "the system" and those trusted with its maintenance.

Eras of European Mood

It appears to only beginning and Europe appears to be its next "hot spot".

Brexit - Trump -- It's Only Beginning!

The Italian Constitutional Referendum on December 4th, 2016 is potentially as impactful as BREXIT and the shock of Trump being elected President of the USA. Both can be seen as potential rejections of the status quo and potentially why the Italian Referendum vote will fail, result in toppling the Italian government and opening the door for the anti-EU, Anti-establishment 5 Star party led by former comedian and political satirist Beppi Brillo.The epitome of the anti-establishment candidate.

There is a steady sequential set of highly charged political events throughout Europe coming in 2017 which portends of mounting political instability and social unrest.

Political Instability Events


A Fuse, An Explosive and The Igniting Catalyst

We sense that all of the above leads to and further assists in driving two key long term structural changes now underway:

First, there is now a clear shift in attitude within the electorate of the Developed Economies towards Anti-Globalization. Existing Free Trade Agreements, Tariffs and Protectionism are all now on the table.

Globalization over 50-Centuries

Secondly, the Debt Super Cycle is coming to an end. It is the fuse that will ignite this combustible mixture. The explosive mixture is about the Fiat paper reserves underpinning the global economic system which are presently built on failing wealth creation which is  required to maintain the collateral values supporting the pyramided debt leverage levels through financial "gimmicks" such as rehypothecation. The approximate $600T derivative SWAPs market is the explosive within this mixture.

Paper Reserves in Central Banks

The catalyst to ignite the fuse will likely be correcting financial markets that are historically highly over-valued, disconnected from fundamentals and can only be described as in the third and final central bank bubble of the new millennium.

No doubt it is going to be both an exciting and troubling period between now and early 2020.  You, dear reader, must determine which it is going to be for you personally?

For more articles signup for GordonTLong.com releases of MATASII Research

Gordon T. Long
Publisher - LONGWave

Signup for notification of the next MACRO INSIGHTS

Request your FREE TWO MONTH TRIAL subscription of the Market Analytics and Technical Analysis (MATA) Report. No Obligations. No Credit Card.

Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that you are encouraged to confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments. © Copyright 2013 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or suggestions you receive from him.

Copyright © 2010-2016 Gordon T. Long

Gordon T Long Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in