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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

Trump Stocks Bull Market Furious Rally Towards Dow 20k as Bear Mantra Persists

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Dec 08, 2016 - 04:54 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

The Trump delirium induced stocks bull market rally is striking down the bears with furious anger! A bear apocalypse in the making as most perhaps as many as 95% were expecting the EXACT OPPOSITE following an unexpected Trump election victory. And you don't have to look far to see the all prevailing imminent bear market mantra as it was regurgitated right across the mainstream press and blogosfear, all wrong! ALL WRONG! And this is what many PAY for! FT, CNBC, NYT etc... Here's how the supposed Trump crash / bear market has actually transpired -


Apparently nobody bothered telling the stock market that it's supposed to CRASH Downwards instead of UPWARDS following a Trump election win!

A case of the blind leading the blind to the edge of the cliff then collectively jumping off it. Instead as I have repeatedly warned that a Trump win amounts to Pressing the RESET button on EVERYTHING! including STOCKS! That demands a furious reappraisal of EVERYTHING, but no the clueless stuck in a perma mantra of the end MUST be nigh! Whilst the mainstream financial press rolls on because it CANNOT CHANGE! Because it's business model is BASED ON ADVERTISING garbage investment services and products! How can the journalists write copy that goes against their big money advertisers? They can't even if they knew how to, they can't! EVER! And so the fake news that CNBC, FT, NYT and the rest pump out in the interests of their advertisers wishes WILL CONTINUE!

Look, I've stated many times over many years that the reason why most traders, perhaps 95% lose is because they are LISTENING to vested interest salesmen called journalists or worse FAILED TRADERS / INVESTORS!

05 Sep 2012 - Why 90% of Traders Lose, Nadeem Walayat's Trading Lesson

The failure rate for financial market and commodity traders has remained at a consistently high 90% for many decades, this despite all of the advances in information technology and the flood of new learning materials that is churned out annually, therefore why is it that 90% of traders still lose ?

In my opinion, a high 90% of traders are destined to lose because they are in fact learning from / listening to the 90% of losing traders that preceded them, who following wipe out in the markets have gone on to focus on writing about market price action and methodology with an even greater concentration observed to occur in the mainstream press as account busted traders / investors turn failure to trade into full time media careers and thus perpetuate a continuous cycle of failing traders guiding new traders towards similar failure.

This explains why those in the mainstream financial press can literally miss WHOLE Bull and Bear markets despite trends that end up spanning many, many years. They can be recognised by their rhetoric such as the perpetual the end of the trend is coming mantra that is based on fundamentally flawed understanding of what actually moves markets, which is why they failed to succeed in trading in the first place.

Given that 90% of trader fail, it can be assumed that that at least 90% of those that provide financial commentary are failed traders that spend their time writing about the act of trading rather than ever engaging in actual trading which culminates in the big name media whores that we see prancing around between make up rooms and TV Studio's, usually regurgitating what other failed traders have already commentated upon or make such weak statements that can be easily applied to virtually any outcome i.e. that the market will definitely fall, but then again it may definitely rise. The media whores are well practiced in applying such phraseology that ensures that they can always claim victory for publicity purposes whatever the actual outcome is, as the viewers are left to perceive whatever they want to in the media whore sales mens commentary, based on their own pre-existing market bias. The mainstream financial media is more than eager to push the selectively edited past commentary that results in nothing more than blatant misleading advertisements masquerading as financial market commentary. Stop for a moment and dissect what the latest utterance of a media whore actually is and you will soon realise the game of deception that is being played in an attempt to hook you in towards ultimately purchasing a product or service.

In actual fact perhaps as little as 1% of the material floating out there is produced by successful traders because successful traders are primarily going to be focused on trading rather than writing about trading or marketing trading services, with probably only enough spare time to write a couple of books over their whole lifetime which compares against the book factories that can churn out as many as several titles per year that virtually ensures that at least 95% of your trading book shelf is packed full of garbage, totally useless, and you know it!

Still it could be worse, academic economists inhabit a zone that is based purely on mumbo jumbo that is guaranteed to result in unforeseen outcomes, for academic economists tend to be the second greatest media whores just a step down from politicians, who exist purely to give off the air of authority and certainty as though economics is a science when in reality it is pseudo science more akin to the art of psychologically managing the general populations expectations aka economic propaganda than in determining any sense of economic reality. Economic theories are just that theories that have been modeled on selective editing of past economic data for political purposes which every trader should know (failing or successful) is just over optimised back fitting onto selective past trends that proves totally worthless going forward.

So how can traders learn to succeed if as much as 99% of the information out there is garbage, produced by failed traders or even those that have never traded?

I will cover the real secrets for successful trading and investing in a forthcoming series of videos of which Part1 covers how to trade a stock market crash.

https://youtu.be/epi2TtnfkCA

Parts 2 and 3 will cover the real secrets for successfully trading and investing, so ensure you are subscribed to my youtube channel and free newsletter for notification of.

Also a reminder of my recent video that kick starts my latest series of videos on how to profit from the machine intelligence exponential mega-trend.

And as for why the stock market is currently galloping towards Dow 20k that NO ONE SAW COMING see my earlier article as excerpted below -

19 Nov 2016 - Trump Delirium Triggers Stock Market Brexit Upwards Crash Towards Dow 20,000!

On the basis of the probable simple pattern being for a 5th of a 5th, then this analysis further concludes that the termination point for the 5th of a 5th is a Larger Wave 1 and therefore implies a further 2 Larger Impulse waves 3 and 5 as the following graph illustrates -

Peering into the Mists of Time

If you have actually read the whole of this analysis (rather than just skipping to the conclusion) then the message you will get is one of an ongoing stocks bull market that like a coiled spring is prepping itself to propel the stock market to levels that cannot be imagined today I.e. my Elliott Wave and broadening top analysis gives strong indications for longer-term expectations. For instance, I can easily see the Dow trade at 20,000 during 2017, so expect plenty more Stocks Stealth Bull Market ebook's to follow.

And here's what has subsequently transpired as we stand at virtually Dow 19k, with my long standing target of Dow 20k now even possible before the end of this year! A good few months ahead of schedule!

However, rather than wasting time on what's likely over the next few weeks, my focus is shifting towards an in-depth analysis and concluding detailed trend forecast that will look far beyond 2016 and well into 2017. That and several more videos in my machine intelligence mega-trend investing series are my focus post the Trump delirium election of 2016. So ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for that.

Though the next 4 years are definitely going to prove very interesting! And it is going to take a lot more outside of the box thinking then anything Obama's steady as she goes stocks bull market has delivered for the past 8 years. The RESET button has been pressed which means everything has to be revisited, stocks, bonds, housing, gold & silver, dollar and all that which lies beyond the markets. The only constant now is the BrExit Tsunami that continues to sweep its way across the western world. Europe looks set to take another battering from the BrExit wave during 2017, many EU states are going to come under severe pressure from Austria to Italy to the Netherthlands, France and finally Germany! This is what happens when politicians sell out their electorate to the elites! The people become susceptible to delirium! Hallucinations of how things actually are and could be, an alternative reality universe where for instance Trump can become President of the United States. I don't know what would shock the Walking Dead star Rick Grimes more after waking up from his coma, the unfolding Zombie apocalypse or Trump being President!

Where the financial markets are concerned the operating thetan for the Trump Presidency is DEBT! TRUMP is the KING of DEBT! And what's worse he can now FORCE the Fed to PRINT like its never printed debt and money before! If americans think they are ignored slaves today then they are not going to like where they are going end up after a 4 year Trump rampage! For Trump is going to ratchet up debt slavery and inflation several notches higher, then what will happen? Of course I could turn out to be wrong, ....but I doubt it.

Just like the phoenix, America looks set to burn brightly under a President Trump, but it won't last! Especially considering that Trump considers Climate Change to be a hoax, literally set to turn up the temperature not just for America but the whole world!

One final comment, 71 year olds don't tend to CHANGE, the Trump you saw during the campaign is the Trump your going to get as President. Mr “I just grab them by the *****” President.

The bottom line is that the stocks bull market will cut through Trump delirium like a knife through butter, the bull market WILL continue into 2017 and BEYOND! Because the thing about delirium is that it should prove to be an even easier time for sane investors to make money off of the crazy antics of a Trump Presidency! And just as has been the case for the past near 8 years, EVERY pull back will be a buying opportunity where the greater deviation from the stock market high then the greater the buying opportunity being presented.

Your analyst preparing strategies for incorporating Trump's debt fuelled money printing delirium waves into his market investing and forecasting models as the President elects family plant themselves firmly onto the Washington gravy train.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

despe906
08 Dec 16, 09:42
Malfunction

I am not the only one who missed that move intraday wise. Also when I look at the price action : slick move without 5m flags to profit from. All on no news, in the midst of a dead Dow, whose range was averaging 60-70 ticks in the last weeks. If I was big money looking to buy, I would do exactly this : trump up and stall to absorb sellers.

I console myself by reading traders' tweets. Many look for reasons to short that market. And this is my favorite tweet:

"This is Malfunction in the computers of some rich guy whiles on wacay".


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