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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Why 90% of Traders Lose, Nadeem Walayat's Trading Lesson

InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade Sep 05, 2012 - 02:50 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

InvestorEducation

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe failure rate for financial market and commodity traders has remained at a consistently high 90% for many decades, this despite all of the advances in information technology and the flood of new learning materials that is churned out annually, therefore why is it that 90% of traders still lose ?


In my opinion, a high 90% of traders are destined to lose because they are in fact learning from / listening to the 90% of losing traders that preceded them, who following wipe out in the markets have gone on to focus on writing about market price action and methodology with an even greater concentration observed to occur in the mainstream press as account busted traders / investors turn failure to trade into full time media careers and thus perpetuate a continuous cycle of failing traders guiding new traders towards similar failure.

This explains why those in the mainstream financial press can literally miss WHOLE Bull and Bear markets despite trends that end up spanning many, many years. They can be recognised by their rhetoric such as the perpetual the end of the trend is coming mantra that is based on fundamentally flawed understanding of what actually moves markets, which is why they failed to succeed in trading in the first place.

Given that 90% of trader fail, it can be assumed that that at least 90% of those that provide financial commentary are failed traders that spend their time writing about the act of trading rather than ever engaging in actual trading which culminates in the big name media whores that we see prancing around between make up rooms and TV Studio's, usually regurgitating what other failed traders have already commentated upon or make such weak statements that can be easily applied to virtually any outcome i.e. that the market will definitely fall, but then again it may definitely rise. The media whores are well practiced in applying such phraseology that ensures that they can always claim victory for publicity purposes whatever the actual outcome is, as the viewers are left to percieve whatever they want to in the media whore sales mens commentary, based on their own pre-existing market bias. The mainstream financial media is more than eager to push the selectively edited past commentary that results in nothing more than blatant misleading advertisements masquerading as financial market commentary. Stop for a moment and dissect what the latest utterance of a media whore actually is and you will soon realise the game of deception that is being played in an attempt to hook you in towards ultimately purchasing a product or service.

In actual fact perhaps as little as 1% of the material floating out there is produced by successful traders because successful traders are primarily going to be focused on trading rather than writing about trading or marketing trading services, with probably only enough spare time to write a couple of books over their whole lifetime which compares against the book factories that can churn out as many as several titles per year that virtually ensures that at least 95% of your trading book shelf is packed full of garbage, totally useless, and you know it!

Still it could be worse, academic economists inhabit a zone that is based purely on mumbo jumbo that is guaranteed to result in unforeseen outcomes, for academic economists tend to be the second greatest media whores just a step down from politicians, who exist purely to give off the air of authority and certainty as though economics is a science when in reality it is pseudo science more akin to the art of psychologically managing the general populations expectations aka economic propaganda than in determining any sense of economic reality. Economic theories are just that theories that have been modeled on selective editing of past economic data for political purposes which every trader should know (failing or successful) is just over optimised back fitting onto selective past trends that proves totally worthless going forward.

So how can traders learn to succeed if as much as 99% of the information out there is garbage, produced by failed traders or even those that have never traded?

That is something which I will cover in my next in-depth article - The Real Secret of Successful Trading .... To get my in-depth analysis in your email in box, ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter.

Source and comments - http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article36355.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2012 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of three ebook's - The Inflation Mega-Trend; The Interest Rate Mega-Trend and The Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 that can be downloaded for Free.

Stocks Stealth Bull Market Ebook DownloadThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend Ebook DownloadThe Inflation Mega-Trend Ebook Download

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 600 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

rayscott
05 Sep 12, 18:27
Trading

Looking forward to your next article Nadeem


leptos
05 Sep 12, 19:11
Bollockoshpere

Hi Nadeem,

Having followed you for about 5 years now, my understanding is that your input is, in some ways, an impetus to further your own personal motivation to analyse and "plan your trades". I know for a fact that if you practice what you preach (and I have no reason to believe otherwise) then you would certainly have done well and I always eagerly await a new posting from you. Without meaning to blow smoke up you ar*e, yours are the only posts I will not miss as opposed to others within the bollockosphere that I sporadically follow.

Given this post by you, I was just wondering what you thought about all the other (i.e. not written by you) articles that flow through marketoracle.co.uk and whether you classify it as part of the 90% diatribe or a more non-mainstream media input that is worth more consideration than I give to a large proportion of it.

I know it's Summer and you have probably been on holiday, so this could be me just trying to get you post more (after all what else is there to do in Sheffield) ;)

Ironically in 2009 I got wiped out for a seriously considerable amount in a Ponzi scheme that has prevented me from acting on any of your analyses.

But you don't need to hear my war stories and I don't want don't to ramble on anymore so basically I eagerly awaiting your next analysis.

leptos


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