Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.The Brexit War! EU Fearing Collapse Set to Stoke Scottish Independence Proxy War - Nadeem_Walayat
2.London Terror Attack Red Herring, Real Issue is Age of Reason vs Religion - Nadeem_Walayat
3.The BrExit War, Game Theory Strategy for What UK Should Do to Win - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Goldman Sachs Backing A Copper Boom In 2017 - OilPrice_Com
5.Trump to Fire 50 US Cruise Missiles To Erase Syrian Chemical Attack Air Base, China Next? - Nadeem_Walayat
6.US Stock Market Consolidation Time - Rambus_Chartology
7.Stock Market Investors Stupid is as Stupid Goes - James_Quinn
8.Gold in Fed Interest Rate Hike Cycles- Zeal_LLC
9.The BrExit War - Britain Intelligence Super Power Covert War With the EU - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Marc Faber: Euro to Strengthen, Dollar to Weaken, Gold and Emerging Markets to Outperform - MoneyMetals
Last 7 days
Elliott Wave Theory: Is Elliott’s Theory Enough? - 27th Apr 17
Billionaire Investor Paul Tudor Jones Says Stock Market Valuation Is “Terrifying” And He Is Right - 26th Apr 17
The Great BrExit Divides - Britain, USA and France - 26th Apr 17
10 Facts That Show Our Taxes Are Worse Than You Thought - 26th Apr 17
What Trump’s Next 100 Days Will Look Like - 26th Apr 17
G20: SURPASSING THE 2nd GLOBAL STEEL CRISIS - 26th Apr 17
What A War With North Korea Would Look Like - 25th Apr 17
Pensions Are On The Way Out But Retirement Funds Are Not Working Either - 25th Apr 17
Frank Holmes : Gold Could Hit $1,500 in 2017 Amid Imbalances & Weak Supply - 25th Apr 17
3 Reasons Why “Spring Forward, Fall Back” Also Applies To Gold - 25th Apr 17
SPX may be Aiming at the Cycle Top Resistance - 25th Apr 17
Walmart Stock Extending Higher - Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 25th Apr 17
Google Panics and KILLS YouTube to Appease Mainstream Media and Corporate Advertisers - 25th Apr 17
Gold Price Is 1% Shy of Ripping Higher - 25th Apr 17
Exchange-Traded Funds Make Decisions Easy - 25th Apr 17
Trump Is Among The Institutionally Weakest National Leaders In The World - 25th Apr 17
3 Maps That Explain the Geopolitics of Nuclear Weapons - 25th Apr 17
Risk on Stock Market French Election Euphoria - 24th Apr 17
Fear Campaign Against Americans Continues Nuclear Attack Drills in New York City - 24th Apr 17
Is the Stock Market Bounce Over? - 24th Apr 17
This Could Be One Of the Biggest Winners Of The Electric Car Boom - 24th Apr 17
Le Pen Shifts Political Landscape- The Rise of New French Gaullism  - 24th Apr 17
IMF Says Austerity Is Over - Surplus or Stimulus - 24th Apr 17
EURUSD at a Critical Point in Wave Structure - 23rd Apr 17
Stock Market Grand Super Cycle Overview While SPX Correction Continues - 23rd Apr 17
Robert Prechter Talks About Elliott Waves and His New Book - 23rd Apr 17
Le Pen, Melenchon French Election Stock, Bond and Euro Markets Crash - 22nd Apr 17
Why You Are Not An Investor - 22nd Apr 17
Gold Price Upleg Momentum Building - 22nd Apr 17
Why Now Gold and Silver Precious Metals? - 22nd Apr 17
4 Maps That Signal Central Asia Is at Risk of War - 22nd Apr 17
5 Key Steps For A Comfortable Retirement From Former Wall Street Trader - 22nd Apr 17
Can Marine Le Pen Win? French Presidential Election Forecast 2017 - 21st Apr 17
Why Stock Market Investors May Soon Be In For A Rude Awakening - 21st Apr 17
Median US Household’s Wealth Has Declined by 40% Since 2007 - 21st Apr 17
Silver, Platinum and Palladium as Investments – Research Shows Diversification Benefit - 21st Apr 17
U.S. Stock Market and Gold, Post Tomahawks and MOAB - 21st Apr 17
An In Depth Look at the Precious Metals Complex - 20th Apr 17
The Real Story of China’s Strong First-Quarter Growth - 20th Apr 17
3 Types Of Life-Changing Crisis That Make You Wish You Had Some Gold - 20th Apr 17
The Truth is a Dangerous Thing - 20th Apr 17
2 Choke Points That Threaten Oil Trade Between Persian Gulf And East Asia - 20th Apr 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

Gold Price US$700? OR US$7000?

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017 Jan 09, 2017 - 03:18 AM GMT

By: Kelsey_Williams

Commodities

Does either of the above preclude the other?  In other words, if we expect gold to reach $7000 per ounce, and we are correct, does that mean that we can’t reasonably expect gold to go as low as $700 per ounce? Conversely, if we are predicting or expecting gold to continue its current decline, and even breach $1000 per ounce on the downside, can $7000 per ounce, or anything even remotely close to that number, be a reasonable possibility?  


I do not think either one precludes the other.  In fact, I think it is entirely possible that we can see both figures.  And not necessarily spread over an inordinately long period of time, either.

Here is a possible scenario that would allow that to happen.

As the US dollar continues to strengthen, the US dollar price of gold continues to decline.  This is clearly evident in the price action of gold since its high point of approximately $1900 in 2011. There is no way to know for certain how long the current dollar strength will last.  At some specific price point the two (US dollar, gold) will find equilibrium.  And it is reasonable that if ongoing dollar strength takes gold below $1000, it might come to rest somewhere between $860 – 890.   In January, 1980, gold peaked at $850.  Revisiting that number is plausible, and well within the realm of realistic speculation.  And, yes, there are technical indicators that point to a gold price of as low as $680-700.

But what type of economic conditions might accompany the reality of that price projection?

I think the consensus is that an ongoing stronger US dollar would be accompanied by a stronger economy.  That makes sense.  But what if it doesn’t happen that way?  What if the economy continues to struggle even more?  Remember, we have been subjected to huge creations of money and credit over the past eight years.  And that is on top of similar policies and actions by the Federal Reserve over the past one hundred years. Is our economy strong enough to weather the effects of attempted normalization/withdrawal?  And, furthermore, have we already ‘killed the patient’?

I believe that is exactly the question that is plaguing the Federal Reserve.  And the very reason they have struggled with firm decisions on altering their accommodative expansion of money and credit.  This is most obvious in their lack of decisiveness regarding interest rates.

Regardless of that, whatever the Federal Reserve has done – or hasn’t done – since 2011 (when Gold peaked at $1900) has been interpreted positively, generally.  At least as far as the US dollar is concerned. Otherwise, we would not have seen the US dollar price of gold drop over that time to its current level of $1170.

But even with a stronger US dollar, the economy still struggles. And there are indications that it could get worse.  Regardless of the Fed’s attempts to avoid it, deflation is a very real possibility. An implosion of the debt pyramid and a destruction of credit would cause a settling of price levels for everything (stocks, real estate, commodities, etc.) worldwide at anywhere from 50-90 percent less than currently.  It would translate to a very strong US dollar.  And a much lower gold price.

Those who hold US dollars would find that their purchasing power had increased.  The US dollar would actually buy more, not less. But the supply of US dollars would be significantly less.  This is true deflation, and it is the exact opposite of inflation.  Of course, this would be accompanied by a complete collapse of any and all forms of real estate, commodities, stocks, etc. – pretty much any asset or item denominated in US dollars.

The most severe effects would be felt in the credit markets and in any assets whose value is primarily determined and supported by the supply of credit available.  Things would be much worse than what we experienced in 2008-12.  The biggest difference would be that the changes would result in  depression-like conditions on a scale most of us can’t even imagine.  And the depression would likely last for years, maybe even decades.

Imagine, if you will, that groceries, gasoline, and house rent cost half of what you now spend.  Whatever cash you have, or is available to you, would buy twice as much.  And you would have money available for other things.  Deflation, in and of itself, is NOT a bad thing.  Unfortunately, you might not have a job.  Or you might live in an area which experiences social unrest.  Also, there could be disruptions in transportation and the orderly supply and delivery of various goods and services.

As far as gold is concerned, its value will be determined by seeking a level that is inversely in accordance with whatever level of strength the dollar achieves. For example, if purchasing power of the US dollar increases by one hundred percent, generally speaking, then we can expect a fifty percent decrease in the US dollar price of gold.

It is quite reasonable to expect any and all of the things mentioned above.

What will make things worse will be intervention and interference by government.

Government hates deflation. And not because of any perceived negative effects on its citizens. It is because the government loses control over the system which supports its own ability to function. Inflation, fractional-reserve banking, enhanced supplies of money and credit are intentional creations of government. They are used to fund and reinforce the operation and grandiose plans of government.

Hence, we can expect government to respond decisively to any series of events which resemble those previously described. Their intentions would be clear. All efforts would be focused similarly to those employed in our previous brush with financial disaster just a few years ago. But don’t expect similar results.

The events themselves are a logical end result of a financial system which has overdosed on artificial stimulation; not entirely dissimilar to an addict’s reactions to long-term drug abuse.

Since each successive financial ‘fix’ requires a stronger dose to maintain the expected results, and since the ongoing systemic damage is cumulative, we reach a point that demands recognition of the problem, and then painful steps to resolve it successfully. The government and the Federal Reserve will not ever acknowledge the harm their policies have caused. And they will never take the steps necessary to ‘save the patient’.

And even if the attempt were made, the shock to the system would likely ‘kill the patient’ at this point. At best, they might be able to postpone the inevitable rejection.

What government definitely will do is ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING that they think will minimize, end, and reverse events which would bring about deflation.

Which is exactly what they did eight years ago. And they succeeded temporarily in keeping the patient alive. But we don’t really know how much systemic damage was done (i.e. exactly how much money and credit were created, how big is the Fed’s balance sheet and how badly inflated are the numbers, how under-capitalized are the banks). I assure you, it is much worse than anything we have been told.

Similar events today would bring about the price collapse in various markets which we discussed, as well as usher in deflation and a full-scale depression. All of this would be resisted on every front by government and the Federal Reserve. They would literally launch an all-out financial war (and maybe another real war, too) by opening the money and credit spigots full force in a futile attempt to reverse the credit implosion and negative price action of critical assets.

In effect, their efforts and intentions would be similar to those observed during the Great Depression of the thirties. The results, at best, would be similar (not productive), too. The depression in our scenario would also last much longer than needed. And the price declines which are necessary to correct the excesses of the past and cleanse the system would be countered every step of the way by regulations and programs of dubious value. The efforts of government would actually worsen things and prolong the suffering.

It is more likely, though, that the results would be much worse than anything we could expect. Even a relatively strong US dollar would be unable to survive the onslaught. In their efforts to ‘save the patient’, the government would ‘kill’ the dollar. We would likely find ourselves awash in money and credit created without regard to potential damage. All in order to stave off the inevitable results while ignoring their curing effects on a very ill economy.

As the reality of the ‘new’ Depression sets in, the failure of initial efforts by government will be seen more clearly. They will then step up their efforts. Damage to the US dollar would be reflected in the US dollar price of gold which could easily go from $700 to $7000 in months, maybe weeks.

By that time, the US dollar price of gold will be meaningless. What will be more important is owning physical gold. The turmoil, social unrest, and economic upheaval that accompanies a complete repudiation of the US dollar will probably set us back 50-60 years – or more – on a lifestyle basis.

So, if you are one of those who thinks that $7000 gold is right around the corner, better plan accordingly.

By Kelsey Williams

http://www.kelseywilliamsgold.com

Kelsey Williams is a retired financial professional living in Southern Utah.  His website, Kelsey’s Gold Facts, contains self-authored articles written for the purpose of educating others about Gold within an historical context.

© 2016 Copyright Kelsey Williams - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife