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Why 95% of Traders Fail

Gold Price 2017 Trending Towards $1375 as Forecast

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017 Jan 16, 2017 - 08:07 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Commodities

The gold price hit bottom at $1124.30 on the 15th of December 2016 following which it entered an uptrend that has taken the precious metal to a recent high of $1207, all this whilst apparently many gold bugs were asleep at the wheel having publically thrown in the towel due to the failure of Gold to perform, and most recently have been busy scrambling to play catch up.


Those who followed my gold analysis posted on the 4th of December (article) and 6th December video would have found themselves buying gold at the very bottom as my video illustrates that I expected the Gold price to imminently trend towards a bottom target buying price of US $1125 before trending higher during 2017 to first US $1375 on break of which would likely continue higher for several more years towards $1800.

Gold 2017

04 Dec 2016 - Gold and Silver Bullion Buying Opportunity for 2017?

Well it backs up everything the 2 year chart is saying and further confirms that $1400 is a very strong resistance level which if over come could propel the gold price MUCH higher, and the chart implies that a BREAK HIGHER would be more probable than a BREAK LOWER. So whilst we can't let ourselves get carried away by anticipating a breakout above $1400 and fantasise about hitting $1800 which would represent a 63% GAIN on $1100. Nevertheless the risk reward is better on the longer term chart then the 2 year chart, which acts to confirm that $1100 to $1125 are good levels to accumulate gold at given the risk / reward profiles.

Therefore with little deviation to date, I see no reason to undertake a more in-depth analysis of Gold at this point in time.

Now back to the 'gold bugs' throwing in the towel and turning bearish AT the BOTTOM! For instance, I got a couple of emails in December following my posting my analysis that I was WRONG in my bullish expectations about gold because of some guy called Armstrong, who apparently had just published a forecast that Gold was about to head down to $1,000. In fact the title of the link in the email was - Armstrong Warns Gold Headed Under $1,000 & Into the Abyss.

Now, I did my usual short reply to such emails that the future is unwritten and that if I am skeptical of my own analysis then why would I care what others are stating, especially if they are selling to the masses, for I understand the only way to arrive at that which is the most probable is through the mechanism of pain and gain, profit and loss. That's the only thing that works, so when I am right I make money when I am wrong I lose money which focuses ones mind to go that extra mile, that and I don't pander to a subscriber base which allows me to meander off into for instance the Trump Reset mega-trend. For I also understand that Technical analysis on its own is a red herring.You are not going to make money with TA alone I PROMISE YOU!.

So learn the lesson! You have to skeptical of your own analysis let alone take that of others seriously because TA is a RED HERRING! Which is why mega-trends analysis is critical and my primary focus, as technical analysis i.e. the charts and trend forecasts represent just the tip of the ice-berg. The forecasts don't emerge form the price charts they emerge from the mega-trends! All TA does is fine tune and gives a target, oh and lots of pretty lines on graphs to wow the masses with. Okay I am getting a little carried away here, TA is useful but only HALF the picture, so on its own it is no more reliable than a coin toss, believe me for its true, for I tested TA to destruction during the 1990's when I realised that it is basically 90% bull shit.

I think the reason most analysts get the markets so badly wrong so often is because they believe their own TA bull shit, and they have to believe in it because they are SELLING it to the gullible masses.

And where the mega-trends are concerned watch my most recent installments on the Trump Reset.

Trump vs the Deep State that Hides in Plain Sight

The "Deep State" best describes the invisible labyrinth of power which truly controls the United States no matter which party is in power against which a President Donald Trump will find himself doing battle against as his first press conference illustrates where Trump let rip into the mainstream press (CNN) as he reacted to the CIA's leaking of another MI6 dodgy dossier to the mainstream press, calling it all 'Fake News', fake intelligence by something that could have come out of Nazi Germany.

Trump CIA Like Nazi Germany - Fake MI6 Intelligence leaked to Fake News Mainstream Media

This video further explains the nature of the deep state as Mike Lofgren, a congressional staff member for 28 years, talks with Bill Moyers about what he calls Washington's "Deep State," in which elected and unelected figures collude to protect and serve powerful vested interests. "It is how we had deregulation, financialization of the economy, the Wall Street bust, the erosion or our civil liberties and perpetual war."

Trump's US election win amounts to a pressing of the RESET button on that which has passed for at least the past 40 years. Which demands a reappraisal of virtually everything to ascertain not just the impact of Trump but the trend reversal / rebellion underway amongst Western populations against the ruling elites that will impact on the mega-trend drivers of financial market trends for many years if not decades to come. In this respect my Trump Reset video series seeks to detail the key mega-trend geopolitical consequences of the Trump Reset, of why the US under a Trump Presidency is trending towards an inevitable war with China, economic, cyber and even outright military conflict, something that is deemed to be impossible by most today.

1. Delirium - Why Trump Won the Election

    My first video in this series was in the immediate aftermath of the US election and explained why Trump won.

2. The Putin Doctrine

Whilst my second video concerned Trump following the "Putin Doctrine", one of there being no difference between that which is truth and that which is fiction.

The Trump Reset - 2 The Putin Doctrine

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2017 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 Ebook5The Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

R.E.B
16 Jan 17, 18:51
Armstrong Analysis

Hi Nadeem, Martin Armstrong, so far as I can tell, does not do conventional technical analysis. He claims to have a computer that can predict the future. Apparently this is all based on analysis of cycles going back many years. He says he was put in prison because he would not give the authorities his program and data. I am not a subscriber and have no first hand knowledge of his service, so cannot vouch for its effectiveness.


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