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Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

UK Economy Post BrExit Boom! Academic and Mainstream Press Clueless Reporting Continues

Economics / UK Economy Jan 26, 2017 - 12:49 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Economics

Its now over six months since the establishment elite prophesied a post BrExit economic collapse apocalypse, a message that clueless academics have continued to regurgitate across the mainstream press for the duration since. However, the most recent economic data continues to paint the exact opposite picture as GDP for the last 3 months of 2016 came in at a very healthy 0.6%. Which in itself followed 0.6% for the preceding quarter, a time when the UK economy was supposed to be in a state of economic collapse! A collapse that has FAILED to materialise! Instead the UK is probably the worlds fastest growing developed economy.


For a taste of the perma wrong doom laden commentary then see that which spouted from the former Prime Ministers mouth and the Governor of the Bank of England.

“Almost everyone now agrees, from the Governor of the Bank of England to the IMF, the OECD to the Treasury, 9 in 10 economists to, yes, even some Leave campaigners, there would be an economic shock if we left Europe. Let’s be clear what that means. The pound falling, prices rising, house prices collapsing, mortgage rates increasing, businesses going bust, and unemployment going up. In other words, a recession.”
- David Cameron

“If we leave the European Union there will be an immediate economic shock that will hit financial markets... That affects the value of people’s homes and the Treasury analysis shows that there would be a hit to the value of people’s homes by at least 10 per cent and up to 18 per cent." - George Osborne

“Brexit represents the biggest domestic risk to financial stability” - Mark Carney

As ever academics tend to be stuck looking in the rear view mirror as the doom merchants latched onto the Purchasing Managers Index data release for July that had fallen to 48.3 where a reading below 50 implies economic contraction) which vested interest academic economists that populate the mainstream press confirmed the start of severe imminent economic downtrend, a recession early warning as illustrate by the FT in early August

FT - Post-referendum UK manufacturing PMI deteriorates

The UK manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 48.2 in July, down from an initial reading of 49.1. That’s the worst pace of contraction since early 2013. Levels above 50 indicate expansion.

Last week, Markit said the initial reading showed “a dramatic deterioration in the economy” in the wake of the Brexit vote.

More economic nonsense from the FT - Evens chance of UK recession by end of next year - Financial Times

2 Aug 2016 - There is an “evens” chance of Britain falling into recession by the end of ... and 1.7 percentage points in 2017 — larger downgrades than those ...

So what more recent dribble have the likes of the FT been peddling, dribble that people actually pay good money to watch or read?

Economists gloomy on UK prospects for 2017

Financial Times-2 Jan 2017

“UK growth will continue to surprise on the upside in 2017,” said Marian Bell, .... This economy looks resilient enough to avoid recession.

I guess, the FT and the like are waiting for the end of 2017 so that they can finally report Britain enjoyed a Post Brexit Economic boom during 2017. So for the whole of 2017 get used to mainstream press reporting phrase of "UK economy grew faster than expected" as each piece of economic data is published during the year. Yes the UK economy WILL grow faster than the morons that publish reams and reams of nonsense expected!

Find out what this means for the UK economy for 2016 and 2017 in my implications of BrExit series of videos.

https://youtu.be/eGrotHF75Ec

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter and youtube channel for forthcoming analysis and detailed trend forecasts aimed at capitalising on the Trump Reset.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2017 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Yuriy
28 Jan 17, 14:37
brexit QE and strong currency devaluation

Hi Nadeem,

I don't think we have really felt any impact of brexit yet.

Recent strong performance is down to brexit QE and very strong sterling devaluation.

Because of delayed impact of inflation, we are going to see more sterling devaluation and real impacts of brexit post article 50.

I suspect it will feel more like "frog boiling" - where one will realise the significant decrease in quality of like long after brexit.


Nadeem_Walayat
28 Jan 17, 19:28
Reasons in hindsight

Hi

There will always been reasons in hindsight, which is why 2017 will be the year of surprises to the upside for the UK economy, as come Jan 2018 many more reasons in hindsight will explain why the UK economy grew so strongly.

Of course you can't invest on the basis of hindsight!

Best

NW


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