Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
What ECB’s Tiering Means for Gold - 17th Nov 19
DOJ Asked to Examine New Systemic Risk in Gold & Silver Markets - 17th Nov 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Cycle Update and are we there yet? - 17th Nov 19
When the Crude Oil Price Collapses Below $40 What Happens? PART III - 17th Nov 19
If History Repeats, Gold is Headed to $8,000 - 17th Nov 19
All You Need To Know About Cryptocurrency - 17th Nov 19
What happens To The Global Economy If Oil Collapses Below $40 – Part II - 15th Nov 19
America’s Exceptionalism’s Non-intervention Slide to Conquest, Empire - and Socialism - 15th Nov 19
Five Gold Charts to Contemplate as We Prepare for the New Year - 15th Nov 19
Best Gaming CPU Nov 2019 - Budget, Mid and High End PC System Processors - 15th Nov 19
Lend Money Without A Credit Check — Is That Possible? - 15th Nov 19
Gold and Silver Capitulation Time - 14th Nov 19
The Case for a Silver Price Rally - 14th Nov 19
What Happens To The Global Economy If the Oil Price Collapses Below $40 - 14th Nov 19
7 days of Free FX + Crypto Forecasts -- Join in - 14th Nov 19
How to Use Price Cycles and Profit as a Swing Trader – SPX, Bonds, Gold, Nat Gas - 13th Nov 19
Morrisons Throwing Thousands of Bonus More Points at Big Spend Shoppers - JACKPOT! - 13th Nov 19
What to Do NOW in Case of a Future Banking System Breakdown - 13th Nov 19
Why China is likely to remain the ‘world’s factory’ for some time to come - 13th Nov 19
Gold Price Breaks Down, Waving Good-bye to the 2019 Rally - 12th Nov 19
Fed Can't See the Bubbles Through the Lather - 12th Nov 19
Double 11 Record Sales Signal Strength of Chinese Consumption - 12th Nov 19
Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Oil, Gold and Stocks Investing – Part II - 12th Nov 19
Gold Retest Coming - 12th Nov 19
New Evidence Futures Markets Are Built for Manipulation - 12th Nov 19
Next 5 Year Future Proof Gaming PC Build Spec November 2019 - Ryzen 9 3900x, RTX 2080Ti... - 12th Nov 19
Gold and Silver - The Two Horsemen - 11th Nov 19
Towards a Diverging BRIC Future - 11th Nov 19
Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Stock Market Investing - 11th Nov 19
Illiquidity & Gold And Silver In The End Game - 11th Nov 19
Key Things You Need to Know When Starting a Business - 11th Nov 19
Stock Market Cycles Peaking - 11th Nov 19
Avoid Emotional Investing in Cryptocurrency - 11th Nov 19
Australian Lithium Mines NOT Viable at Current Prices - 10th Nov 19
The 10 Highest Paying Jobs In Oil & Gas - 10th Nov 19
World's Major Gold Miners Target Copper Porphyries - 10th Nov 19
AMAZON NOVEMBER 2019 BARGAIN PRICES - WD My Book 8TB External Drive for £126 - 10th Nov 19
Gold & Silver to Head Dramatically Higher, Mirroring Palladium - 9th Nov 19
How Do YOU Know the Direction of a Market's Larger Trend? - 9th Nov 19
BEST Amazon SMART Scale To Aid Weight Loss for Christmas 2019 - 9th Nov 19
Why Every Investor Should Invest in Water - 8th Nov 19
Wait… Was That a Bullish Silver Reversal? - 8th Nov 19
Gold, Silver and Copper The 3 Metallic Amigos and the Macro Message - 8th Nov 19
Is China locking up Indonesian Nickel? - 8th Nov 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How To Buy Gold For $3 An Ounce

Britain Needs Trump for Smooth Brexit

Politics / BrExit Feb 01, 2017 - 06:52 AM GMT

By: John_Browne

Politics

At the Washington joint press conference with Prime Minister May held on January 27th, President Trump told the watching world, "Brexit is going to be a wonderful thing." The meeting did much to clear the way for Britain to stand alone and enter trade with the United States without the European Union (EU). Their talk of a U.S.-UK free trade agreement could do much to ease the fears of some key English Members of Parliament and counterbalances the fears that Britain will be punished by a bitter EU. The positive meeting occurred at a fortuitous moment. Only four days prior, the UK's Supreme Court had ruled that Parliamentary approval must be specifically obtained before Her Majesty's Government can sign trigger negotiations to exit the EU.


May's speech to Republican Members of Congress on January 26th and her responses at the joint press conference made it clear that there were three central strategic aims for her visit. The first was to re-establish the 'Special Relationship' which had been downgraded deliberately under Obama to the disadvantage of both countries. First coined by Winston Churchill in 1946, The term "Special Relationship" grew from the countries' shared culture and implied the closest economic, political, diplomatic and military cooperation. The President's reference to it as the "Most Special Relationship" together with his immediate acceptance of an invitation to make a State visit to Britain this year should keep the momentum.

Second, May wanted Trump's expressed reassurance that he was not intending to abandon NATO but to strengthen it by ensuring that all members abide by their agreed defense spending and force levels. In addition, May suggested calls for a NATO commitment to fight terrorism and cyber warfare. Trump affirmed her position readily. This will reassure many European nations, most importantly Germany.

May's third and most difficult goal was to achieve Trump's commitment to a free trade agreement between the UK and the United States, similar to that enjoyed by Canada. Whether promised unofficially or in letters of intent, an agreement would play a potentially crucial part in May's negotiation of a soft Brexit. At present, the EU appears motivated to punish Great Britain for its audacity to leave and to force a so-called 'hard' Brexit. Such an outcome for the UK could dissuade other wavering nations like Greece, Italy and even France to follow suit. Being able to show that the UK has already a potential free trade agreement and an enhanced relationship with the U.S. might persuade the EU to accept a "soft" Brexit.

The sticking point for the UK to maintain continued access to the EU market, could hinge on British acceptance of free flow of people through its borders, including potentially millions of Muslim immigrants. But control of national borders was a key element in the Brexit vote. Therefore, May must strengthen her hand so the EU is forced to accept a more reasonable deal, hence the crucial value of a potential trade deal with the U.S.

Trade negotiations involve complex trade-off bargains on many strategic issues. They are particularly difficult when negotiated between nations like the U.S. and UK that have similar economies and important domestic vested interests. For instance, London and New York have struggled against one another to become the world's dominant financial center. But as long as Britain remains in the EU, its ability to negotiate bi-lateral trade agreements will remain curtailed. However, if May could obtain a confidential and undisclosed commitment in advance, it would strengthen her hand greatly in bargaining with the EU. Some believe that due to the complexity and the time necessary such a clandestine provisional treaty never could be achieved. However, Trump is a renowned dealmaker, and as we have seen, he can deliver when needed.

Had former Prime Minister Cameron not felt so overly confident of victory, doubtless he would have thought to include provisions for a Parliamentary Bill that would follow an Exit outcome of the Referendum, thereby avoiding the embarrassing confusion that exists now. He should have made clear that the referendum result would be binding on Parliament, and what, if any, role Parliament was to play in the negotiations with the EU. The result of this gross oversight is that Prime Minister May, who voted 'Remain', inherited a mess. It is a mark of her integrity, skill and courage that despite powerful countervailing forces, she intends to respect the expressed will of the people.

Doubtless, May is relieved that the UK's Supreme Court found expressly that she would not have to consult the devolved national Assemblies of the UK (Scotland, Wales, etc.), all of which are against Brexit. However, she won't find much more sympathy in Parliament where some 74 percent of her own party in the House of Commons and a majority of Peers in the House of Lords hold Remain sympathies. However, 61 percent of constituencies voted for Brexit. (Jemima Kelly & Patrick Graham, Reuters, 11/3/16) Likely, only foolhardy Commons Members will defy their powerful party whips to vote against their constituencies and the general electorate so soon after a referendum. This will be true especially if May adds more pressure by making it a vote of confidence which, if lost, would trigger an immediate general election. As for the Lords, May can threaten to reduce further their already limited undemocratic powers. Therefore, May likely will sign the EU's Article 50, triggering Brexit, at the end of March, setting in motion negotiations that could last up to two years.

During this extended period of uncertainty in the UK, investors could expect considerable turbulence in almost all asset classes. But if a soft Brexit can be achieved, and should a U.S.-UK trade agreement follow soon afterwards, UK equities, especially those involved in U.S., Japanese and Chinese trade, could rise. Investors should start having their advisors research which companies may stand to benefit, particularly in the fields of finance, agriculture and defense.

Read the original article at Euro Pacific Capital

By John Browne
Euro Pacific Capital
http://www.europac.net/

More importantly make sure to protect your wealth and preserve your purchasing power before it's too late. Discover the best way to buy gold at www.goldyoucanfold.com , download my free research report on the powerful case for investing in foreign equities available at www.researchreportone.com , and subscribe to my free, on-line investment newsletter at http://www.europac.net/newsletter/newsletter.asp

John Browne is the Senior Market Strategist for Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.  Mr. Brown is a distinguished former member of Britain's Parliament who served on the Treasury Select Committee, as Chairman of the Conservative Small Business Committee, and as a close associate of then-Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. Among his many notable assignments, John served as a principal advisor to Mrs. Thatcher's government on issues related to the Soviet Union, and was the first to convince Thatcher of the growing stature of then Agriculture Minister Mikhail Gorbachev. As a partial result of Brown's advocacy, Thatcher famously pronounced that Gorbachev was a man the West "could do business with."  A graduate of the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, Britain's version of West Point and retired British army major, John served as a pilot, parachutist, and communications specialist in the elite Grenadiers of the Royal Guard.

John_Browne Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules