Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.What Happened to the Stock Market Crash Experts Were Predicting - Sol_Palha
2.London Housing Market Property Bubble Vulnerable To Crash - GoldCore
3.The Plan to Control ALL Your Money is Now at Advanced Stage
4.Why Gold Is Set For An Epic Rally This Spring - James Burgess
5.MR ROBOT NHS Cyber Attack Hack - Why Israel, NSA, CIA and GCHQ are Culpable - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Emmanuel Macron and Banking Elite Win French Presidential Election 2017 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Trend Lines Met, Technical's are Set - US Dollar is Ready to Rally (Elliott Wave Analysis) - Enda_Glynn
8.The Student Debt Servitude Sham - Gordon_T_Long
9.Czar Trump Fires Comey, Terminates Deep State FBI, CIA Director Next? - Nadeem_Walayat
10.UK Local Elections 2017 - Labour Blood Bath, UKIP Death, Tory June 8th Landslide - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
SPX/NDX/NAZ Hit New All-time Highs - 27th May 17
GBPUSD Top in Place, GOLD Price Ready to Rocket? - 27th May 17
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 27th May 17
BBC Newsnight Falls for FAKE POLLS, Opinion Pollsters Illusion for Mainstream Media to Sell - 27th May 17
UK Local Election Results Forecast for General Election 2017 - 26th May 17
Stock Market & Crude Oil Forecast! - 26th May 17
Opinion Pollsters UK General Election Seats Forecasts 2017 - 26th May 17
Bitcoin and AltCoins Crypto Price Correction - 26th May 17
Bearish Head and Shoulders in EURUSD? - 26th May 17
SELL US Stocks - Massive Market CRASH WARNING! - 26th May 17
EURGBP: A Picture of Elliott Wave Precision - 26th May 17
Credit Downgrades May Prompt Stock Market Capital Shift - 26th May 17
Rosenstein and Mueller: the Regime Change Tag-Team - 25th May 17
Stock Market Top - Are We There Yet? - 25th May 17
Should I Invest My Fortune in Gold? Inaugural Lecture by Dr Brian Lucey - 25th May 17
USD/CAD Continues Decline - 25th May 17
Bitcoin Price Goes Loco! Surges through $2,500 Despite Unclear Fork Issues - 25th May 17
The US-Saudi Arms Deal - Sordid Saudi Signals - 25th May 17
The No.1 Commodity Play In The World Today - 24th May 17
Marks and Spencer Profits Collapse, Latest Retailer Hit by Brexit Inflation Tsunami 2017 - 24th May 17
Why Online Trading Platforms Are Useful for Everyone - 24th May 17
The Stock Market Will Tank Hard - 24th May 17
It’s Better to Buy Gold & Silver When It DOESN’T Feel Good - 24th May 17
Global Warming - Saving Us From Us - 24th May 17
Stock Market Forecast for Next 3 Months - Video - 23rd May 17
Shale Oil & Gas Production Costs Spiral Higher As Monstrous Decline Rates Eat Into Cash Flows - 23rd May 17
The Only Metal Trump Wants More Than Gold - 23rd May 17
America's Southern Heritage is a Threat to the Deep State - 23rd May 17
Manchester Bombing - ISIS Islamic Terrorist Attack Attempt to Influence BrExit Election - 23rd May 17
What an America First Trade Policy Could Mean for the US Dollar - 22nd May 17
Gold and Sillver Markets - Silver Price Sharp Selloff - 22nd May - 22nd May 17
Stock Market Volatile C-Wave - 22nd May 17
Stock Market Trend Forecast and Fear Trading - 22nd May 17
US Dollar Cycle : Deep Dive - 21st May 17
Bitcoin Breaks the $2,000 Mark as Cryptocurrencies Continue to Explode Higher - 21st May 17
Stocks, Commodities and Gold Multi-Market Status - 21st May 17
Stock Market Day Trading Strategies and Brief 20th May 2017 - 21st May 17
DOW Needs to Rally Big or Correction is Next - 20th May 17
EURUSD reaches DO or DIE moment! - 20th May 17
How to Get FREE Walkers Crisps Multi-packs! £5 to £28k Pay Packet Promo - 20th May 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

Betting on President Trump Leaving Office Early, Presidency End Date - Betfair Market

Politics / Gambling Feb 06, 2017 - 02:34 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

The Trump Reset Tsunami waves continue to wash that which has been built up over the past 40 years away in a manifestation of extreme delirium which I covered both in the run up to the US presidential election of why Trump would WIN, and in my post Trump analysis of why the Trump Reset looks set to culminate in a war with China.


The Trump Reset - 2 The Putin Doctrine

However, immersed in the Trump Reset is the high probability that Trump won't see out his full four year term in office! My following video analysis in the Trump Reset series gave various scenarios of how the CIA was planning on getting rid of the 'rogue president'.

Will the CIA Assassinate Rogue President Donald Trump Like JFK?

Whilst my forecast concluded that Trump will probably be ejected from office between June 2019 and December 2019 i.e. between 2.5 and 3 years into his Presidency, still more than enough time to do a lot of damage to the world created during the past 40 years!

For the past couple of weeks Trump has done everything like clockwork to reinforce the trend towards the Termination of the Trump Presidency! Even Arnold the terminator recently chimed in to offer to replace him so Trump can go back to that which is most important to him, fronting the celebrity apprentice.

I recall immediately following Trump's victory my many muslims friends living in the US deluded themselves into thinking that Trump won't be as bad as was implied during the election camp. I tried my best to shake them out of their delusion by stating that he will likely be much worse, for the Trump Resets war witch China demands CONSCRIPTION! Thus like lemmings they were blinding walking towards a defacto apocalypse for many american families regardless of race or religion. THIS SHOULD BE THE MESSAGE FROM MY TRUMP RESET SERIES of articles and videos. AN APOCALYPSE OF SORTS is forthcoming. Anyway I am digress from the primary purpose of this article which is for WHEN Darth Trump Leaves office?

My forecast is for a Trump exit between June 2019 and December 2019. It maybe by legal means or a covert CIA operation in which case console yourselves for Donald J Trump is no John F Kennedy! The more I read and watch of JFK the more impressed I am that the United States could produce such a President! Instead DJT is the EXACT opposite of JFK!

Still the nature of democracy is such that elections can from time to time throw up both the WORST and the BEST of America, whilst most in the meantime tend to be mediocre Obama's or Bushes. But once every 50 years or so along comes a Kennedy or Trump.

Trump Exit Date Betfair Market

So what's the current market price for and end to the Trump Presidency ?

The good news is that the highest odds are once more for my most probable forecast outcome, of Donald Trumps Presidency ending during 2019, where a £100 bet would resolve in a profit of £660 (before fees). Now before you all rush off to make the bets note the following -

a. This is a gamble, it's a bet on that which has very little data to go on. For there are no polls or anything, it's purely throwing the Trump Reset analysis into the mists of time to come up with a best guess.

b. That it is a loooong time until the end of 2019, very long time, which means a lot can happen between now and then that could bring the date closer or push it further out, which means the odds could improve a lot, especially if the Iron Man Trump experiences a medical problem courtesy of the CIA during 2019!

Though there is an even more risky alternative which is to UNDERWRITE 2019! Yes this would be very risky, and well there's 11 months to go ! So still a lot could happen but for £10 return you would be offering to risk £50 if Trump left office during 2019. For traders out there it's like writing options, and the risk vs reward is pretty poor. BUT that's because the betting markets deem the probability of Trump leaving this side of 2020 as being VERY LOW! Much as the markets saw Trump winning the election as a very low probability!

So with 11 months to go, that's £50 risk for a £10 reward for underwriting a NO TRUMP EXIT during 2019. I am tempted to place a small bet in this direction, very small, i.e. I am not going to risk more than £200, for just a £40 return. It's not much compared to the Trump election bonanza. But for those who understand the risk and are eager for a position so as to continue to have an incentive to engage ones synapses in Trumps direction than this could be it for an out right trade on Trump SURIVIVING at least for this year, it's the only near term bet that I can see worth doing because I don't really want lock up a bet on a Trump exit that could be near 3 years down the road!

So that's where the betting markets stand a couple of weeks into the Trump Reset Presidency.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

R.E.B
06 Feb 17, 15:56
Trump Hysteria!

Do you not think you are in danger of lapsing into a little Trump hysteria of your own Nadeem? Relax, there will be no war with China, at least not in the next 5 years. Regards.


osprey
06 Feb 17, 16:08
Trump demise

Sorry Nadeem, but isn't it 1 year and 11 months until 2019?


Nadeem_Walayat
06 Feb 17, 20:22
Trump 2019

My forecast is for betwene June 2019 and Dec 2019 thats approx 2.5 to 3 years.


Nadeem_Walayat
06 Feb 17, 20:23
Trump Reality

Nope, I recall when I warned that Russia was going to annex large chunks of Ukraine, that some commented that Russians and Ukrainians were brothers and that it was never happen!


RM
07 Feb 17, 16:21
GDX and GDXJ

Hi Nadeem, Your December Gold and Silver analysis has been working out very well. Kindly request you to provide your analysis on GDX and GDXJ. Thanks!


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife